Sonsoles Castillo is Financial Scenarios Chief Economist at BBVA Research. Since 2010 leads a team of economists dedicated to financial analysis and coordinates the preparation of financial forecasts.
She joined BBVA Research in 1997 and during this time he has covered, from different positions, the economic analysis of the US, Europe and emerging economies and central banks, especially the ECB. She has been chief economist at Capital flows from Europe and cross-section analysis of emerging economies.
Previously, she served on the research staff of FEDEA (Foundation of Applied Economic Studies) where she collaborated and co-authored several reports and academic articles and a speaker at financial seminars.
She studied Economics from the University of Alcala de Henares with the number 1 in her class. And then she was awarded a scholarship by the Faculty of Economics of the University of Alcalá for Research Personnel Training.
The ECB strengthened its forward guidance on rates, with no rate hikes at least through the first half of 2020 in response to the increase and persistence of global uncertainty. The ECB opens the possibility to further easing if needed.
The dynamics of Global Investment Funds flows in 1Q19 can be characterized by a widening bond-equity divergence, and a visible moderation in inflows to EMs. Looking ahead, we expect EM outflows to continue at a moderate pace until global volatility eases. In a risk scenario, EMs to face more intense and persistent outflows.
April was a transition meeting for the ECB, with no changes in the forward guidance and little information on hot issues (liquidity measures and tiered-deposit rates). Still, Draghi sounded dovish on the macroeconomic outlook and his reiteration that they are ready to act with all available instruments. We expect details on the TLTRO-III at the June meeting.