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Sumedh Deorukhkar
Sumedh Deorukhkar

Senior Economist

Sumedh Deorukhkar is a Senior Economist for Emerging Asia at BBVA, Hong Kong.

 

He has published extensively on emerging Asia with a focus on India and Indonesia. He regularly shares economic views across electronic media and his work is quoted in leading business newspapers and magazines. He was the key note speaker at the Asian Banker Conference 2015 held in Jakarta, Indonesia. His paper on India’s Overseas Direct Investments was selected for presentation at the 4thCopenhagen Business School Conference on ‘Emerging Multinationals: Outward Investment from Emerging Economies’ in 2014.  

 

In previous years, Sumedh worked for 4 years with ICICI Bank, India’s largest private sector bank, as an economist in its Treasury department, where he published extensively on the US and Indian financial markets.

 

Sumedh holds an MSc degree in Economics from Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, an advanced research institute established by the Reserve Bank of India. He also holds a specialized degree in Financial Risk Management from the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP), USA.


Latest Publications

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China | Vulnerability sentiment deteriorates in June

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) deteriorated in June, dragged by Housing and Exchange Rate component, which together offset a stable SOE Index and improving Shadow Banking Index. The deleveraging campaign has gained traction, with notable easing in shadow lending growth, though concerns over its effectiveness continues to undermine sentiment.

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China: Vulnerability sentiment improved notably in May

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) improved notably in May, led by Housing, SOE and Shadow Banking components, which offset a deterioration in Exchange Rate Vulnerability Index. The improvement in CVSI reflects underlying investor confidence that macro-financial headwinds facing China still remain manageable amid policy efforts to anchor financial stability.

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China : PBOC tweaks model guiding Yuan fix to underpin financial stability

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On May 26th, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced that, henceforth, it would add a ‘counter-cyclical adjustment factor’ to its model guiding daily USDCNY midpoint fixing. The tweak aims to reduce excess Yuan volatility and curb one-way bets by easing ‘herd behavior’, but risks backpedaling Yuan exchange rate regime to the one prior to the reform in August 2015.

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Geographies:Asia China

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China | Guidelines issued to tackle rising corporate debt

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China’s State Council yesterday issued a set of guidelines, seeking to lower corporate sector leverage and tackle its ballooning corporate debt, which, we estimate, at around 160% of GDP at end-2015.

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Geographies:Asia China

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Asian Urbanization trends

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Urbanization phenomenon has increasingly spread over the last years, fostered by Asia and it’s expected to continue in the next decade. China and India, followed by Indonesia, are leading this urbanization process. The rapid pace of urbanization will drive higher income growth and consumption expenditure, as well as a change in consumption patterns.

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India | Q2 GDP growth slows as investments dip

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India’s Q2 2016 real GDP registered slower growth at 7.1% y/y from 7.9% in 1Q16, weighed by protracted investment weakness, which offset robust consumption demand. With the recent pickup in inflation expected to be transient, and India's reform momentum gaining traction, we foresee room for a final 25 bps rate cut by the RBI when inflation abates towards the end of 2016.

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Geographies:Asia India

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India | Robust Q1 GDP dims further rate cut hope

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The Indian economy grew at a robust 7.9% y/y rate in Q1 2016, beating expectations, as strong private consumption offset negative investment contribution. In the wake of an improving but unbalanced growth recovery, RBI will likely adopt a wait and watch policy approach, characterized by a status quo on June 7th while leaving room for a final 25 bps rate cut later in 2016.

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Geographies:India Asia

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Philippines | Is Duterte ready to clear high bar?

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Philippines President-elect Rodrigo Duterte has a high bar to clear as he takes on the reform mantle from Benigno Aquino III, who was instrumental in delivering impressive economic performance despite a tough external environment. In this watch, we examine the state of Philippines economy so as to ascertain key macroeconomic challenges facing the new administration.

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Geographies:Asia China India

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Oil impact on Asia’s structural current accounts

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In this watch, we decompose the current account balances of emerging market Asian economies into cyclical and structural components to examine the oil price impact on Asia’s structural current accounts.

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ASIA | Equity-for-Debt Swap – A Pareto-Optimal solution to China’s banking sector woes?

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With China’s banking sector facing rising asset quality concerns, policymakers recently announced an Equity-for-Debt Swap (EDS) program, aiming to reduce commercial banks' stressed assets. In this watch, we draw upon other countries' experiences to highlight key issues that Chinese policymakers should address for ensuring effective implementation of its new EDS program.

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Geographies:Asia China India

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Indonesia | Why BI introduced a new policy rate?

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Bank Indonesia (BI) announced last week that it would, effective August 19, 2016; reformulate its policy rate from the BI rate into the 7-day Reverse Repo rate. We examine the significance of this move, while noting that it does not alter BI’s accommodative policy stance, with another 25 bps rate cut expected on April 21st.

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Geographies:Asia

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ASIA | Tackling China’s currency woes – Policy references from India

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In this watch, we focus on concerns surrounding China’s currency woes, which have often unnerved investors in the recent past, while triggering capital flight. We examine whether past measures adopted by Indian policymakers to stem similar risks can be considered by China as a point of reference in its domestic policy toolkit.

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Geographies:Asia China India

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RBI cuts 25 bps, lifts liquidity; expect to cut more

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The Reserve Bank of India today cut its benchmark repo rate by 25 bps to 6.5%, in line with expectations; and positively surprised by boosting and streamlining liquidity in the Indian banking system. Looking ahead, we think RBI’s rate cutting cycle isn’t over yet with a one last 25 bps rate cut expected at its next meeting on June 7th.

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Geographies:Asia India

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ASIA | Gauging the impact of China’s growth slowdown on emerging Asia

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Concerns that economic deceleration in China could be sharper and more disorderly than expected have unnerved investors over its spill-over effects on growth and financial stability in emerging Asia. In this watch, we gauge the impact of China’s transition on emerging Asia amid on-going issues surrounding China slowdown, Yuan depreciation and financial market volatility.

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Geographies:Asia China India

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India | FY17 Budget – A tight balancing act

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India’s FY17 (year ending March 2017) Union Budget reiterated its commitment towards quality fiscal consolidation by aiming to reduce its fiscal deficit to 3.5% from 3.9% of GDP in FY16. The budget rightly focuses on measures to boost a weak rural economy and a step up in productive public spending but is less forthcoming on implementation of crucial structural reforms.

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Geographies:Asia India

Available in English