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Sumedh Deorukhkar
Sumedh Deorukhkar

Senior Economist

Sumedh Deorukhkar is a Senior Economist for Emerging Asia at BBVA, Hong Kong.

 

He has published extensively on emerging Asia with a focus on India and Indonesia. He regularly shares economic views across electronic media and his work is quoted in leading business newspapers and magazines. He was the key note speaker at the Asian Banker Conference 2015 held in Jakarta, Indonesia. His paper on India’s Overseas Direct Investments was selected for presentation at the 4thCopenhagen Business School Conference on ‘Emerging Multinationals: Outward Investment from Emerging Economies’ in 2014.  

 

In previous years, Sumedh worked for 4 years with ICICI Bank, India’s largest private sector bank, as an economist in its Treasury department, where he published extensively on the US and Indian financial markets.

 

Sumedh holds an MSc degree in Economics from Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, an advanced research institute established by the Reserve Bank of India. He also holds a specialized degree in Financial Risk Management from the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP), USA.


Latest Publications

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China, trade war with the US?

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There are concerns that the protectionist rhetoric and the so far limited tariff increases may lead to a full-blown trade war between the US and China which could put the brakes on world growth.

Units:
Geographies:USA China

Available in Spanish, English

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China | 'Trading' blows with the U.S.

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This watch examines the potential effects of the ongoing US-China trade clash on the Chinese economy. At its current stage, given a trade skirmish rather than a full-blown trade war, the downside risk to the Chinese economy seems contained. However, the Middle Kingdom stands to take a deeper hit in the event of a protracted trade war, the likelihood of which is still low.

Available in English

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China | One Belt One Road – What’s in it for Latin America?

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In this watch, we examine China-Latin America economic ties and explore ways to deepen integration between the two under the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative. Our analysis also includes the use of Big Data to measure media coverage and sentiment on news related to OBOR and Chinese infrastructure investments in Latin America.

Available in English

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China | Vulnerability sentiment ends 2017 on a high note

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) ended 2017 on a high note, extending previous gains, underpinned by the shift in policy focus towards quality of growth, PBOC’s prudent monetary policy stance, a stable yuan and ongoing efforts to curb risks to financial stability emanating from housing, SOE and the shadow banking sector.

Available in English

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China | Vulnerability sentiment plateaus in November

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) held steady in November, remaining well within the positive territory although softer compared to its peak achieved during the 19th Chinese Party Congress. The past month saw authorities intensify efforts to curb risks to financial stability emanating from shadow banking, housing market and the SOEs.

Available in English

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Trump and the Silk Road

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US president Donald Trump has just completed his first presidential tour of Asia, where he attended APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) summits.

Available in Spanish, English

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China | One Belt One Road – progress and prospects

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The One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative provides an overarching framework for China to achieve its economic and strategic ambitions. China’s large industrial overcapacity, surplus capital and efforts to secure resources complement the need to address infrastructure and funding constraints in OBOR countries. That said, challenges faced by OBOR initiative are significant.

Available in English

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China: Vulnerability sentiment extends gains in October

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) notched its fourth straight month of improvement in October, reflecting favourable policy mix, marked by accommodative fiscal policy to stabilise growth and prudent monetary and regulatory measures to curb financial fragility risks. China’s focus on quality of growth at 19th Party Congress bodes well for CVSI going forward.

Available in English

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China: Vulnerability sentiment stays upbeat in September

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) for September held on to its recent gains with regulators focusing on maintaining macro-financial stability ahead of the crucial 19th Chinese Communist Party Congress (CCP). Activity moderation extended in August, led by policy efforts to reduce overcapacity, curb leverage and reduce housing inventory.

Available in English

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China | Vulnerability sentiment improves in August

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) improved in August, underpinned by gains in the SOE, Housing and Shadow banking component while FX speculative pressures persist despite slowing capital outflows.

Available in English

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China: Vulnerability sentiment boosted by solid economic recovery &clarified policy stance

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) improved remarkably in July, in particular led by both SOE and Shadow Banking components. Meanwhile, the components of the Exchange Rate and Housing Vulnerability Index also rebounded from the previous low levels, now staying within the neighbourhood of natural level.

Available in English

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Fintech in Emerging ASEAN: Trends and Prospects

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Growth of emerging ASEAN, chiefly Indonesia & Philippines, is underpinned by improving demographic dividend and rapid urbanization. ASEAN banks benefit from adequate capital buffers and manageable asset quality concerns. ASEAN banks profitability trends are stabilizing post contraction over the past three years.

Available in English

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China | Vulnerability sentiment deteriorates in June

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) deteriorated in June, dragged by Housing and Exchange Rate component, which together offset a stable SOE Index and improving Shadow Banking Index. The deleveraging campaign has gained traction, with notable easing in shadow lending growth, though concerns over its effectiveness continues to undermine sentiment.

Available in English

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China: Vulnerability sentiment improved notably in May

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) improved notably in May, led by Housing, SOE and Shadow Banking components, which offset a deterioration in Exchange Rate Vulnerability Index. The improvement in CVSI reflects underlying investor confidence that macro-financial headwinds facing China still remain manageable amid policy efforts to anchor financial stability.

Available in English

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China : PBOC tweaks model guiding Yuan fix to underpin financial stability

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On May 26th, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced that, henceforth, it would add a ‘counter-cyclical adjustment factor’ to its model guiding daily USDCNY midpoint fixing. The tweak aims to reduce excess Yuan volatility and curb one-way bets by easing ‘herd behavior’, but risks backpedaling Yuan exchange rate regime to the one prior to the reform in August 2015.

Units:
Geographies:Asia China

Available in English