Tomas Triantafilo is a Junior Economist of BBVA Research Argentina. He was previously a Project Analyst at the BBVA Global Risk Management and Database Analyst at ABECEB Consultancy.
He is an assistant of the Department of Monetary Theory at the University of Buenos Aires (UBA). He was also an assistant of Advanced Macroeconomics in that University.
He has a degree in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires.
With a better than expected 2022, Argentina will face a complex 2023, with a drop in the level of activity and high inflation that will lead to a stagflation scenario. The main challenges will be the rollover of debt in the local market for challenging amounts and the vulnerability of the FX rate scheme.
The deviations from the targets agreed with the IMF triggered a deterioration of expectations and the economic situation, deepened by political tensions. Economic activity will slow down more than expected in the coming quarters.
The government reached an enforceable agreement with the IMF, avoiding a default scenario. This is good news for Argentina, but its gradual approach does not change the overall macroeconomic scenario, nor does the absence of structural reforms create the conditions for a sustainable growth path.