Tomas Triantafilo is a Junior Economist of BBVA Research Argentina. He was previously a Project Analyst at the BBVA Global Risk Management and Database Analyst at ABECEB Consultancy.He is an assistant of the Department of Monetary Theory at the University of Buenos Aires (UBA). He was also an assistant of Advanced Macroeconomics in that University.He has a degree in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires.
Javier Milei will be the new president of Argentina. He takes office with the challenge of correcting strong imbalances in the fiscal, monetary and exchange rate fronts. The adjustment of spending and changes in relative prices will lead to an acceleration of inflation and further contraction of GDP in the short term.
The macroeconomic scenario deteriorated due to the strong impact of the drought, which substantially reduced agricultural exports, with negative effects on GDP and tax revenues.
2023 is a year with a heavy electoral calendar, in a context of growing social concern regarding macroeconomic imbalances and a historic drought. We expect sustained pressures in the FX market throughout the year, with consequences on the GDP and financial volatility.