Tomas Triantafilo is a Junior Economist of BBVA Research Argentina. He was previously a Project Analyst at the BBVA Global Risk Management and Database Analyst at ABECEB Consultancy.
He is an assistant of the Department of Monetary Theory at the University of Buenos Aires (UBA). He was also an assistant of Advanced Macroeconomics in that University.
He has a degree in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires.
The government reached an enforceable agreement with the IMF, avoiding a default scenario. This is good news for Argentina, but its gradual approach does not change the overall macroeconomic scenario, nor does the absence of structural reforms create the conditions for a sustainable growth path.
3Q21 GDP was better than expected and reached pre-COVID-19 levels. We modified our GDP growth forecast for 2021 from 7.5% to 10%. We expect a weak activity performance in 2022 (+3.5%). The recent announcement of an understanding with the IMF lowers the likelihood of more adverse risk scenarios.
We raised our GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 7.5%, but we do not expect a dynamic performance in the coming two years (average annual growth: 2%). The key question is whether that will be a result of the correction of imbalances or due to a postponement of them. An agreement with the IMF would shed light on this issue.