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Tomasa Rodrigo

Tomasa Rodrigo is currently Economist at the Cross-Country Emerging Markets Unit of BBVA Research. Most of her work relates to the cross sectional economic analysis of emerging economies with a special focus on the geostrategic and geopolitical analysis and the development of emerging economies in the long term, as well as its potential growth. 

             

She has a degree in Economics from the University of Granada (Summa Cum Laude), where she worked as research assistant for two years. He also has a Master in Economic Analysis at the Carlos III University of Madrid (Thesis Score: 10/10) and she worked as a teacher of Econometrics during a year.

 

She has published in academic journals as Eurasian Journal of Social Science and has worked in newspapers and magazines like El Pais and Cataluña Económica.


Latest Publications

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - May 2017 Update

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Tensions surrounding the North Korean nuclear test program remained in the spotlight becoming one of the main US foreign policy concerns. The US announced its support for the Syrian Kurdish in the fight against ISIS. The campaign to seize Raqqa is accelerating. Recent peace talks in Syria as well as the “de-escalation zone” agreement reduced conflict intensity in May.

Available in English

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China: Vulnerability sentiment improved notably in May

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) improved notably in May, led by Housing, SOE and Shadow Banking components, which offset a deterioration in Exchange Rate Vulnerability Index. The improvement in CVSI reflects underlying investor confidence that macro-financial headwinds facing China still remain manageable amid policy efforts to anchor financial stability.

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Financial deleveraging: two steps forward; one step back

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After months of persistent regulatory tightening in domestic financial markets, China’s authorities unexpectedly fine-tuned their stance of monetary prudence by injecting liquidity into the banking sector. We interpret the authorities’ strategy as “two steps forward one step back”. After the market stabilizes and absorbs their messages, they are set to leap forward again.

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - April 2017 Update

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Tensions continued between North Korea and US over the nuclear test programme and the US increased its missile defence system in the area. China will continue to maintain the statuo quo while the tone of the US escalated but softened thereafter. In the Middle East, the advances of the coalition forces continue against ISIS. The US supported the YPG's advance in Raqqa.

Available in English

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Tracking chinese vulnerability in real time using Big Data

Document Number 17/13

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We develop an indicator to track vulnerability sentiment in China. In order to ensure robustness and depth, we use a combination of traditional macroeconomic and financial time series with textual analysis using Big Data techniques.The index is composed by the following dimensions: state owned enterprises; shadow banking; housing market bubble and exchange rate market.

Available in English

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China | Vulnerability sentiment edging towards neutral

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) moderated in April after improving since July 2016. The CVSI is now edging to neutral, however the components of the index show divergence. The moderation can be related to a decline in housing and FX components. The shadow banking component remained positive on a tighter monetary policy stance and macroprudential measures.

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - March 2017 Update

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After the chemical weapons attack on Syrian civilian population, the US launched its first military strike against the Assad regime sending a clearer message to Syria and North Korea. However, it is still early to know whether this is a tactical message or part of a broader strategy. Europe and Asia kept with low conflict levels, while in North Africa, instability rose.

Available in Spanish, English

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Big Data at BBVA Research

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Big Data analysis at BBVA Research. Digital revolution and the new business environment. Big data and education: challenges and opportunities

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Tracking Chinese Vulnerability in Real Time Using Big Data

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We develop a new indicator to track Chinese vulnerability sentiment in real time, combining Big Data with key financial indicators and official statistics. Our Chinese Vulnerability and Sentiment Index (CVSI) shows improving risk narratives since 2H16, in line with a pick-up in economic activity and a change in the policy mix put in place by Chinese authorities.

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - February 2017 Update

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While ISIS lost ground in Syria and Iraq, Al-Qaeda resumed its offensive operations. Meanwhile, tensions between Russia and Ukraine stabilized after last month’s sharp conflict escalation. Geopolitical tensions in China could intensify as uncertainties regarding the US policy stance in the region remained and North Korea remains testing.

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Ukraine: violence intensified once again in 2017

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Fighting in Eastern Ukraine erupted again, just a day after that the first phone call between Trump and Putin since the US president's inauguration. It was the worst escalation since early 2015. The new US administration's policy stance towards the conflict is still undefined and increases concerns and uncertainties about the conflict evolution and the Russian role on it.

Available in English

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - January 2017 Update

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Pro-regime forces took full control of Aleppo, while ISIS retook Palmyra. Russian military operations intensified during the month. Escalation between Russia and Ukraine. Iraqi security forces recaptured eastern Mosul. Escalation between Russia and Ukraine

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China | Trump, tariffs and tensions

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Donald Trump will be inaugurated as 45th President of the United States today. During his campaign, he pledged to label China a “currency manipulator” and impose a 45% tariff on Chinese imports during his first day in office. While the likelihood of this scenario remains low, a number of factors point towards a more protectionist agenda under Trump.

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European Urbanization Trends

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The urbanization process in Europe took place rapidly since 1950, but in the 90s it moderated its pace and it will likely be slower during the next ten years. European cities have become in important hubs for education, innovation and knowledge-based economies. Digitalization has been fundamental to increase competitiveness.

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Syria: The war will continue

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Aleppo has been seized almost entirely by pro-regime forces while Turkey moves deeper into northern Syria to seize ISIS-held al-Bab. The war against rebel forces will move to Idlib province west of Aleppo (rebel held green area in the map and southern parts of it). The new phase in the war would also a test of the allaince between Moscow and Tehran.

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - Nov Update

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Russia intensified its campaign in Syria, with heavy airstrikes taking place throughout the month. Iraqi security forces continued their operations in Mosul, making some gains in the eastern area. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine sharply escalated due to Ukrainian missile testing.

Available in English

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - Oct Update

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Iraqi security forces launched a significant operation to recapture Mosul. In Syria, military operations escalated in Aleppo and the campaign against Raqqa started. Tensions arose in Eastern Europe. North Africa remained on the spotlight, while Latin America, Western Europe and Asia remained calm.

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest September Update 2016

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The nationwide ceasefire agreement collapsed and violence once again reached new heights across Syria. Russia intensified its air campaign in Aleppo. Increases offensives by ISIS in Iraq. Instability in Ukraine remained high, as it did in North Africa. In Latin America, Western Europe and Asia some hotspots persist, but most of the region remains calm.

Available in English