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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 21 September 2018

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Highlights: IOSCO issues guidance on conflicts of interest and conduct risk in capital raising and policy to protect some OTC derivatives investors. EBA issues report on funding plans and asset encumbrance. ECB issues report on profitability drivers and consults on the evaluation of licence applications. US Agencies consult on the treatment of HVCRE exposures.

Available in Spanish, English

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 14 September 2018

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Highlights: ESAs issue report on risk and vulnerabilities of the financial sector. ESMA issues MiFID II compliance table (only for some provisions of it). ECB receives recommendation from private sector on ESTER. UK Treasury consults on the transposition of the EU Bank Creditor Hierarchy Directive. US Agencies confirm the role of supervisory guidance.

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. Economic Outlook. September 2018

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Economic conditions remain consistent with high growth and moderate inflation in 2018 & 2019. FOMC remains poised to raise rates at their upcoming meeting in September and again in December. Baseline assumes three additional increases in ‘19. Labor market conditions remain auspicious: strong job growth, low unemployment, rising wages and record-high job openings.

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | What’s behind the slowdown in bank deposits?

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Bank deposits have slowed since the end of 2015 and further more since the beginning of 2018. The slowdown matches historical patterns during late-stage economic expansions. The likely cause is the higher attractiveness of deposit alternatives as deposit interest rates have not increased commensurately with other short-term interest rates.

Geographies:USA
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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New US - Mexico trade agreement significantly reduces uncertainty

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Not a bad deal considering the circumstances. With the information available, we think it is a less favourable agreement than NAFTA itself, but better than the alternative. Mexico will remain competitive in the production and export of vehicles. On the positive side, the energy sector is part of the agreement; this reduces the chances of a rejection of the energy reform.

Units:
Geographies:USA Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 7 September 2018

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Highlights: ECB consults on its guide to internal models. EBA issues QIS templates for Basel III impact assessment. ECB issues opinion on cross-border payments. ESMA issues opinion on amendments to SFTR. BdE consults on changes to information for calculating DGS contributions. Finally US Agencies extend deadline for comments on Volcker Rule amendments.

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Inflation Regime Changes and the Fed’s Reaction Function

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Probability of inflation regime change is small, but growing supply-side pressures could complicate the Fed’s exit strategy if expectations become untethered.

Available in Spanish, English

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The labour share in the service economy

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Labour’s share of national income has dropped in most of the developed countries and emerging economies in the past few decades. However, this trend is not common across industries: the share of income accounted for by wages has seen an increase in the service industry, while it has recorded a fall in the rest of industries.

Geographies:USA Spain Europe

Available in Spanish, English

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 31 August 2018

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BCBS publishes amendments on Pillar 3 requirements. EBA issues three different consultations on supervisory reporting (for NPEs, STS and LCR). ECB issues opinions on prudential treatment of investment firms and covered bonds directive. OCC consults on proposal to modernise the CRA. FRB and FDIC extend submission deadline for some resolution plans.

Available in Spanish, English

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US-Mexico trade agreement: the best one that was possible under the current circumstances

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The presidents of Mexico and the US have announced a preliminary bilateral commercial agreement. If congresses in each country approve it, this accord will replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) that has been in place since 1994.

Units:
Geographies:USA Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Mission Impossible: NAIRU Fallout & the Unobservables

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Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole Symposium sets policy course for current normalization cycle.

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 24 August 2018

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BIS issues consultation on governance arrangements for OTC derivatives data. ESMA issues technical standards on disclosure for securitisations. ECB updates list of supervised entities. UK Treasury issues Statutory Instruments to adapt DGS and CRR after Brexit. US Agencies issue interim rule on the treatment of municipal securities for the purpose of LCR.

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. Economic Outlook. August 2018

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Incoming data consistent with baseline of high growth and inflation in 2018 & 2019. There was no change to FOMC view on the level of accommodation, suggesting that they remain comfortable with further rates increases and additional balance sheet normalization.

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 10 August 2018

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FSB issued consultation on the clearing of OTC derivatives, and a report on CCP interdependencies. SRB issued non-confidential version of the “valuation 3” report for the resolution of Banco Popular. EBA updated information to identify GSIIs. FCA consults on the role and tools of the Global Financial Innovation Network.

Available in Spanish, English

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 3 August 2018

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IOSCO issues recommendations for trading venues. EBA issues RTS on securitisation, and home-host cooperation under PSD2. It also issues a report on the functioning of resolution colleges. ESMA publishes findings of peer review for UCITS. US Treasury issues report on Fintechs. OCC starts accepting applications from Fintechs.

Available in Spanish, English

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