Most recent posts from Latin America

The Big Data Private Consumption Index grew 7.7% year-on-year in June, marking its fifth consecutive month of deceleration as the positive effects of the extraordinary pension fund withdrawals that began in November 2025.

June inflation remained elevated, at 4.0% y/y, driven by weather-related factors that pushed up prices for fish, fruit, and eggs, while Transport fell on lower fuel prices. Core inflation also rose, to 4.5% y/y, reflecting the pass-through of earlier fuel price increases to urban transport costs.

Banco de la República raised its policy rate by 75 basis points to 12.0%. The decision was split, with four Board members voting in favor of the increase, two supporting a 50-basis-point rate cut, and one voting to keep the policy rate unchanged

The conflict in the Middle East has caused a global economic shock in 2026 that is impacting Latin America. Rising commodity prices and logistics costs have triggered a spike in inflation and a slowdown in economic growth.

The Peruvian economy grew 3,5 % in the first quarter, above expectations, backed by private spending. The Middle East conflict, weather anomalies, and the election result will shape its performance going forward. In the baseline scenario, it will grow 3,1 % in 2026 and 3,5 % in 2027, once supply shocks fade away.

GDP grew 3.7% in April, one of the highest rates of the year and above consensus (3.6%). The gain reflects the non-primary sector (+4.4%): commerce accelerated to 7.3% and construction led despite slowing. The primary sector fell 1.6%, on lower agricultural output and zinc mining production.

The BCRP kept its policy rate at 4.25% for the ninth consecutive month. Headline inflation (3.9%) and core inflation (4.4%) remain above the target, and according to the statement, convergence will extend into 2027. We do not rule out the possibility that the BCRP may adjust its policy during the second half of the year.