Latin America latest publications
Consumption in October has maintained a good dynamic, growing 18.1% compared to the same period in 2019, slightly higher than in September (17.8%), although the highest since the beginning of the pandemic, but with a different composition between goods and services.
October 12, 2021
Colombia | Challenges for the Colombian economy in the face of the pandemic and beyond
The challenges of the Colombian economy are presented in aspects such as pandemic, reactivation and recovery, employment, education and a condition of life with less poverty and more support in old age.
October 8, 2021
Peru | Central Bank hikes by 50bp again in response to unanchored inflation expectations
The Board of the Central Bank decided to increase the monetary policy rate from 1,00% to 1,50% in October. The Bank once again deems convenient to maintain an expansive policy stance for a prolonged period.
Inflation in September had a monthly variation of 0.38%, in line with what we anticipated (0.40%) and stood at 4.51% YoY. Food prices moderated their upward pressure but remained at high levels. Once again, higher education tuition discounts provide temporary relief to inflation.
October 1, 2021
Colombia | In august, the labor market showed good signs for the second consecutive month
In August, the unemployment rate stood at 12.3%, lower than in August 2020, but higher than in August 2019. Between July and August 2021, with comparable data, the unemployment rate fell by 1.2 p.p., a reduction that was leveraged on employment growth.
In September, BanRep increased in 25bp the monetary policy rate to 2.0%. The vote was divided, with 3 members in favor of a 50bp increase. The Staff reviewed their activity, inflation and current account deficit forecasts upward. With this move the Bank starts a rate hiking cycle.
September 30, 2021
Peru | Real-time analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on consumption. Up to Sep 27, 2021
In September, the BBVA consumption indicator grew 21% in real terms with respect to the same month of 2019. Compared to September 2020, the indicator grew 39.4%, favored by a low base of comparison (spending contained in 2020 due to social distancing measures).
In the absence of data from the last two days of September, consumption grows 17.2% compared to the same period in 2019 according to the BBVA Big Data Consumption Index. A very similar record to that observed in July, a month in which official indicators showed a good performance of the economy.