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The Board of the Central Bank decided to increase the monetary policy rate from 5.00% to 5.50% in June. The Bank continues the normalization of monetary policy in a context of lesser external headwinds and pessimistic expectations.
In May, monthly inflation was 0.84% and annual inflation was 9.07%, close to the expectations of market analysts and BBVA Research (0.80% monthly change).
In May, household consumption slowed compared to April, especially in the second half of the month. Tourism-related spending was the most moderate, while in-city consumption (restaurants, entertainment and urban transportation) remained strong.
In May, BBVA Research's big data consumption index (inflation-adjusted spending with cards and cash withdrawals) increased 8,0% compared to the same month in the previous year (19.0% YoY in April).
In April, the national unemployment rate was 11.2%, 4.3 p.p. lower than a year ago, in the same month and the urban rate was 11.1%, 6.4 p.p. lower than a year ago. Between March and April 2022, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased by 0.4 p.p. at the national level and by 0.9 p.p. at the urban level.
New vehicle sales have tended to stabilize since 2021, with a higher share of utility vehicles, a lower share of cars and strong growth in cargo vehicles. In 2022 and 2023 we estimate sales similar to the 250 thousand units of 2021. Sales of motorcycles and used vehicles have shown great traction.
The Consumer Price Index for the city of Lima increased 0.38% MoM in May. This is a result of the increase in the prices of transportation and food and non-alcoholic beverages, in a context of higher international prices of fuels and foodstuffs.
In the first quarter, GDP grew 8.5% year-over-year and 1% quarter-over-quarter. Consumption remained a good dynamic driven by spending on durable and semi-durable goods and the services sector. Investment, which performed well, was driven by the purchase of machinery and the advance of intellectual property.