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Lima's CPI rose 0.52% m/m in April, above the Bloomberg consensus (0.20%) but moderating from March's 2.38%. Annual inflation reached 4.01%, exceeding 4% for the first time since October 2023, driven by the persistent pass-through of the energy shock to transport costs.

The labor market remains solid with national unemployment at historic lows of 8.8% and employment growth of 2.7%. However, a duality persists in the 13 main cities, where unemployment rose to 9.4% and employment growth slowed to 0.8% annually.

The El Niño phenomenon in Colombia, with a probability close to 90% by September 2026, would bring drought conditions and higher temperatures. This climate shock would affect food supply and increase electricity generation costs, leading to temporary inflationary pressures in the economy.

Economic activity accelerated in February to 3.7% year-on-year, led by non-primary GDP, with strong momentum in trade and construction. Year-to-date, GDP growth stands at 3.6%.

Inflation in March stood at 5.56% year-on-year, driven by the rebound in food prices due to the rainy season and by persistent pressures in services associated with the minimum wage. Inflation is expected to close the year at 6.5%, amid these pressures and additional climate and geopolitical risks.

The Central Reserve Bank of Peru maintained the interest rate at 4.25%, in line with expectations. Despite the inflationary rebound in March caused by supply shocks, the institution projects that inflation will return to the target range by the end of this year amid positive growth prospects.

In 2025, there were 160,000 deportations of Mexican migrants, a figure 22.3% lower than the 206,000 events recorded in 2024, and 25.4% below the 215,000 deportations in 2023. Remittances to Mexico posted a slight increase in February, edging up 0.4% to reach 4,468 million.