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After a 13.1% rebound in 2021, this year the economy will grow 2.3% in a context of sustained confidence weakness, withdrawal of economic stimuli and lesser external tailwinds, despite the progress in vaccination and the beginning of operations of new copper mines. For 2023, we expect a 3,0% expansion.
The Colombian economy will grow 4.0% in 2022 and 2.8% in 2023, with inflation pressures that will gradually moderate from the second half of this year. The monetary policy intervention rate will turn contractionary in mid-2022. The great challenge for the economy is to increase formal employment and generate more savings.
Economic activity grew 3.5% year-on-year in November. In an analysis comparing GDP figures for 2021 with those for 2019 (pre-health crisis situation), activity expanded 1.3% (October: 1.2%).
Consumption in December grew 20.0%, closing the year with a similar dynamic to that recorded in November but lower than in October (24.8%). In the first part of January, goods have shown good dynamics while services fell compared to the peak recorded in December 21.
January 12, 2022
Colombia | Unemployment rate fell between October and November, but employment declined
In November, the national unemployment rate in its original series stood at 10.8% and the urban rate at 12.2%, lower than the same month in 2020, but still higher than in 2019. The national unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, decreased, with respect to October, as did employment and the labor force.
The Board of the Central Bank decided to increase the monetary policy rate from 2,50% to 3,00% in January. The Bank changed the forward guidance component, signaling further hikes.
Inflation in December maintained its upward trend and again surprised on the upside with a monthly variation of 0.73%, closing the year at 5.62%. Inflation without food had a monthly variation of 0.44% and was 3.44% in annual terms, 8 basis points higher than in November.
In December, spending with cards and cash withdrawals (BBVA Research's big data consumer index) increased 7.0% compared to the same month in 2019 (10.9% compared to December 2020).