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The Colombian economy starts its recovery process from the second half of 2020. It will grow 4.8% in 2021 and 3.8% in 2022 boosted by private consumption and investment. Inflation will gradually return to its target in 2021 and the Central Bank will hold rates at low levels during 2021.
After the expansion of mobility restrictions in most of the country, consumption has deteriorated further in recent days, dropping 18% annually in January. The service sectors are in a sharp decline in recovery and many are at levels recorded prior to the end of strict confinement.
Consumption in January shows a significant deterioration related to the new mobility restrictions imposed by the arrival of the second wave of Covid-19 in the country. At the regional level, the impact on consumption has been differentiated and has depended largely on the degree of closure of the economy.
In 2020, in nominal terms, consumption fell 6.7% y/y, with a decline in services of -28.1% and growth in goods of 9.2% compared to 2019. Its maximum decline was observed in April (-40%) because of the effects of containment and the pandemic, and it has since gradually recovered.
In November the labor market continued its recovery, at a slower pace. In November there were no additional sectoral openings so job creation was more related to the speed of the economic recovery. The unemployment rate continued to fall, with a less dynamic labor supply.
Consumption slowed down in the first half of December, reflecting some of the early spending by households in November. At the regional level, the slowdown was generalized in the main cities, although with a greater lap in the case of Medellín.
GDP fell 3.8% year-on-year in October. The available indicators show that the recovery of economic activity would have been maintained in the last part of the year
After the good performance of the consumption in November for the day without VAT, a moderation of the same one is observed in the first days of December and it stays in positive ground growing 2.8% in annual terms. At the regional level, a greater deterioration in consumption is observed in Medellín and Bogotá.