Latin America latest publications
The current global and regional scenarios for the Colombian economy are challenging. Volatility and uncertainty are the daily bread and we quickly move from the novel of the commercial war between the United States and China to the novel of Brexit.
The search for yield and looser monetary policies across the board, favor sovereign spreads compression, despite a worsening global outlook, poorer incoming data and balance of risks, and the lack of improvement of fiscal disequilibria.
As a small economy, Colombia is not immune to the reality of the global context. Short- and medium-term scenarios can be affected by exchange rate volatility, weakening investment, fiscal deficit, current account deficit and informality in the labor market.
I feel that we are falling short, economists, in making the debates that the country needs. In terms of growth, for example, and its lack of relationship with some leading indicators. Inflation, about the risks that the shocks again move us away from the fiscal or fiscal goals and their long-term impact.
This paper analyzes the effect of financial participation on consumer's financial vulnerability, which is pervasive in the developing world. The financial behavior of consumers (i.e. financial health) has a greater positive effect on financial vulnerability than the narrower concept of financial inclusion.
A possible recession in the US economy has led to a change in the language and direction of the monetary policy of major central banks around the world. The signals emitted by the global economy produced a risk scenario that was reflected in the purchase of safe-haven assets.
The DANE published the inflation figure for the month of July, with a variation of 0.22% above that anticipated by analysts. With this figure, annual inflation reached 3.79%, already very close to the ceiling of the target range defined by the Issuer. On the other hand, the exchange rate returned to historical highs.
The recovery of growth in Latin America has not materialized for several quarters and the return to average growth rates above 2% has been consistently delayed. The second quarter of 2019 was no exception.