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Presentation Spain Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

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The expected growth of the Spanish economy is revised downwards, to 2.6% in 2018 and 2.4% in 2019, due to the negative surprises registered in the first half. In addition, a downward bias is maintained over the forecasts presented in this scenario, given the increase in uncertainty, both external and internal.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | More moderate and heterogeneous growth, with increasing risks

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We have revised downwards our forecasts for global growth to 3.7% in 2018 and 3.6% in 2019 due to the recent slowdown in emerging markets, in a context of monetary policy normalization and intensification of risks related to protectionism and political uncertainty. The US is expected to grow at 2.8% in 2018 and 2019, while the Eurozone and China will decelerate next year.

Available in English

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Turkey | Some slow-down signals, more to come

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The sharp decline in the unadjusted IP (-11%) in August, which is in line with our expectations (BBVA -11.5%), also implies a yearly contraction in industrial production in 3Q18 which will weigh on GDP growth. With 40% of information, our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts a 2% yoy growth in September and we expect it to continue to decelerate.

Available in English

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U.S. Economic Outlook. October 2018

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Economic conditions remain consistent with high growth in 2018 & 2019, upside risks to inflation contained. FOMC remains poised to raise rates in December. Baseline assumes three additional increases in 2019. Labor market slack continues to decline, as unemployment rate nears 50 year lows at 3.7%.

Geographies:USA

Available in English

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U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. Fourth quarter 2018

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The probability of an economic recession within the next 12 months remains low. Alternative models show increasing likelihood but also indicate relatively low probability. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative. However, a sharp correction in equities and corporate spreads is possible. Economic fundamentals for households and financial institutions remain solid.

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey | A big upside surprise on inflation

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CPI increased 6.3% (mom) in September, significantly higher than our and market expectations (3.9% vs. 3.4%). This leads the annual figure to jump to 24.5% from 17.9% in August. Today’s inflation data shows that pricing behavior is adjusting faster than expected and this could be considered as a “factor affecting inflation requiring further monetary policy tightening”.

Available in English

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Geo-World: Conflict & Protest September

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Tensions between the US and North Korea remained contained as both parties. However, US-China relations worsened as both countries imposed new tariffs. The US and Canada achieved a new trade deal including Mexico to replace NAFTA. Turkey and Russia agreed to resolve the Idlib dispute in Syria with demilitarized zones. US-Iran relations are still on a worsening track.

Available in Spanish, English

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Portugal | Growth is upheld, but there are signs of a slowdown

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Portuguese GDP grew 0.6% t/t in 2Q18, mainly due to the increase in gross capital formation and the improvement in the external sector, and despite the low growth of domestic final consumption. Based on the indicators available so far, BBVA Research estimates that growth in 3Q18 will be approximately 0.3% QoQ SWDA.

Geographies:Portugal

Available in Portuguese, Spanish, English

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U.S. | What’s happening with U.S. potential GDP growth?

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Capital stock, labor, and productivity do not show a significant increase following the recent fiscal stimulus. According to our forecast, potential output will grow 1.8% per year on average for the next 10 years. Potential GDP growth reached its peak in 2017, and thus monetary policy normalization is adequate.

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Just what the doctor ordered: real-time recession forecasts

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Highly predictive financial and economic factors suggest recession risk remains low. However, these indicators are trending towards pre-recession peaks, implying a recession could happen around 2020.

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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Global Economic Risk Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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This report analyzes the main global economic risk events that could generate a sizable deviation from our baseline scenario. Among them, a full-on trade war, US recession, Fed exit strategy and disorderly deleveraging in China stand out. Although these are usually events of low probability, their feasibility and adverse effects may be large enough to require monitoring.

Available in English

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Turkey | A more realistic New Economic Program

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Turkey’s New Economic Program (NEP) hinders a re-balancing of the economy with fiscal consolidation in the short term in a more realistic framework.The NEP is more consistent with expectations. The prudent stance of the fiscal policy is now more adequate and should complement the already tight monetary policy conditions to re-balance the economy.

Available in English

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Eurozone | Steady growth supported by domestic demand, with signs of global headwinds

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After the deceleration in Q1, Eurozone GDP growth remains steady at +0.4% q/q thanks to resilient domestic demand. However, industrial output has weakened and leading indicators signal lower volume of export orders due to potential downside effects from increased protectionism. Inflation remains subdued. Risks are related to a cliff-edge Brexit and Italy's fiscal policy.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Solid global growth, but moderating amid heightened risks

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Global growth moderates, but remains in line with our GDP growth projections of 3.8% for 2018. Manufacturing activity has lost momentum and the impact from protectionism is starting to weigh on confidence, global trade and investment. Risks have also heightened over the summer due to political uncertainty and idiosyncratic vulnerabilities in emerging markets.

Available in Spanish, English

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The ECB on track to end QE

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The ECB has set out along the path towards ending QE, since monthly asset purchases will be halved from September, but it has made no changes to its future guidance on interest rates. In the next few months attention will be focused on how the reinvestment policy will be implemented and when and at what pace interest rates will start to rise.

Available in Spanish, English

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