Filter all of our publications to find the ones you are most interested in by content language, date, geography and/or topic.
Sort our publications chronologically from newest to oldest, regardless of geography and/or topic matter.
Sort publications according to the number of time reads by our users, regardless of geography and/or topic matter.
Formal employment in Mexico showed null monthly variation in March 2024, reflecting a more pronounced slowdown than expected in the year's first quarter. In March, it grew below expectations, partly attributable to the effect of Easter.
After the local election results, we expect the maintenance of current economic policies with more aggressive tightening in the short term. Therefore, expected additional restrictive measures might generate downside risk on our short term inflation (45% by 2024 end) and growth (3.5% for 2024) forecasts.
The national unemployment rate in February 2024 was 11.7%, higher than the 11.4% in February 2023. On the year to February, employment grew 1.2% (260 thousand jobs), down from 2.5% (533 thousand jobs) in January 2024, continuing the trend of sl…
At the end of 2023 we find opposite results in the Real Estate market. Construction presents historical results, growth rates well above the average in different indicators. The housing market is contracting with figures as of November 2023. In…
Consumer prices rose by 3.16% (68.5% y/y) in March, lower than both our expectation and consensus (3.5% and 3.6%, respectively). We expect annual consumer inflation to reach 45% by 2024 end under the assumption of 3.5% GDP growth in 2024, gradu…
The German Bund 10Y term premium turned positive in the aftermath of the pandemic, boosted by the upward trend in the uncertainty surrounding inflation as well as spillover effects from a higher US term-premium. Furthermore, Euro Area growth uncertainty and moderation in ECB bond purchases also contributed to the upside.
The world's attention in recent months has been focused on the decisions of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), geopolitics—especially the conflict in the Middle East—and activity in China. Little attention is paid to Latam, and there is scarcely talk of its economic policy or the dynamics of its activity.
The Central Bank (CBRT) surprised the markets and hiked the policy rate by 500 bps to 50%. They promised to tighten the stance further according to the inflation outlook and support the monetary transmission mechanism in case of unanticipated d…
Inflation moderated less than expected in the first two months of ‘24 constrained by the modest decline in services. Our supply bottlenecks indicators inched up in February 2024 but remain at very low levels.
Adaptation to accelerated climate change is imperative, which can be an opportunity for sustainable financing from the private sector if the conditions are in place. It remains to be seen.
By the end of 2023, Mexico recorded a trade deficit of 5,463 million dollars ($5.46 bn). Manufacturing leads both exports and imports. Mexico solidified its position as the leading supplier in the US market while FDI dropped slightly in 2023.
After the strong growth performance in 2023 with 4.5% y/y, we nowcast an acceleration in GDP growth rates in 1Q24 with 5.5% annually as of March. We maintain our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 3.5% given the solid performance in 1Q, the pre-election fiscal impulse and expected capital inflows.
