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United States Economic Outlook. July 2018

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High growth and inflation will continue in 2018 & 2019. We now anticipate that the Fed will raise rates three times in 2019; for 2018, we maintain our baseline scenario of hikes in Sept. & Dec. Despite elevated volatility in the employment surveys we maintain our outlook for ongoing tightening in the labor market; unemployment rate to reach 3.7%.

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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The current expansion of the Spanish Economy

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Since 2014, Spain has been growing at rates higher than those of most other European countries. During these years, Spain has recovered the competitiveness lost before the crisis. Inflation, unit labour costs and mark-ups have performed better than in the euro area as a whole, resulting in strong export growth. In 2017, exports were 35 per cent above the 2007 levels.

Geographies:Spain

Available in English

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Geo-World: Conflict & Protest - June 2018

By , , ,

Instability erupted in several cities of Iran over the worsening economic situation. Hardliners began putting pressure on the government and the U.S. strategy to impose sanctions for regime change accelerated. Trump – Kim Jong-Un summit seemed to lift nuclear related risks in Asia. Trump-Putin meeting in Helsinki on July 16 will be crucial for several regional issues.

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey | June inflation reaches a worrying 15.4%

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Consumer prices increased 2.61% (mom) in June, remarkably higher than expectations. Thus, annual consumer inflation hit 15.4%, the highest level since December 2003, up from 12.2% in May. Assuming no additional negative currency shock, we estimate the year-end inflation to be around 13.5%.

Available in English

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Spain | Productivity and efficiency of the public sector

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In this paper, the productivity of the public sector in Spain is analyzed comparatively. Although the public sector is not the main cause behind the negative behavior of productivity in Spain, there is ample room for improvement to reach the levels of efficiency and effectiveness presented by the rest of the main peers.

Available in Spanish

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The labor share in the service economy

Document Number 18/09

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Much research has documented a decline in the aggregate labor share in the United States and other countries. Yet, this is not a general phenomenon across industries. In fact, there has been a divergence between services and non-services industries in the United States since 1980.

Geographies:USA Europe

Available in English

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Eurozone | Growth moderation has continued in Q2 and headline inflation has shot up

By , , , ,

The Eurozone could grow at about 0.4% QoQ in the second quarter after a similar figure in 1Q18, according to our BBVA-MICA model. This poses a downward bias to our 2.3% growth forecast for 2018. Inflation accelerated rapidly in May (1.9%) due to higher commodity prices and the euro depreciation, but the core component has progressed as expected to 1.3%.

Available in Spanish, English

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Deepening EMU to create opportunities and increase competitiveness and growth in the EU

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Despite the progress in improving the governance in the last years, the present architecture of EMU is not enough to deal properly with future crisis and face the challenges of the on-going digital revolution. A genuine monetary, fiscal, banking and economic union, with a non-constrained interaction between monetary and fiscal policies.

Available in English

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Portugal | The slowdown in GDP growth continued in 2Q18

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Portugal’s GDP grew by 0.4% QoQ in 1Q18, 0.3 pp less than the growth seen in the previous quarter and that forecast by BBVA Research. Domestic demand continues to grow strongly, in contrast with the recent weakness seen in exports, which have been affected by the reduced thrust of the euro zone economy. BBVA Research estimates that growth in 2Q18 will be around 0.3% QoQ.

Geographies:Portugal

Available in Portuguese, Spanish, English

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United States Economic Outlook. June 2018

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Incoming data reaffirms our baseline scenario of moderate to high GDP growth and higher inflation in 2018 & 2019. Federal Reserve poised to raise rates twice in the second half of the year and possibly three times in 2019. We continue to expect above average growth in employment which will push the unemployment rate to 3.6% by 2019.

Geographies:USA

Available in English

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Global | Growth is still holding up despite increasing uncertainty

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Global growth remains on a strong footing at the beginning of 2Q18 despite the high levels of uncertainty, especially coming from trade news. Hard data and sentiment indicators remain solid but with growing differences across areas. Inflation surged in advanced economies on higher commodity prices while monetary policy normalization continues.

Available in Spanish, English

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Spain | Sustained growth, despite internal and external uncertainty

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Growth is expected to be around 0.8% in 2Q and the BBVA Research forecast for 2018 remains unchanged (2.9%), although there are still biases. On the one hand, the approval of the PGE18 suggests a more expansive fiscal policy. On the other hand, external uncertainty still persists and, in Spain, the relative one to economic policy has increased.

Available in Spanish, English

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The ECB delivers on QE exit and gives strong guidance on rates

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The Asset Purchase Programme will end in December 2018. However, interest rates will remain on hold at least until the summer 2019, later than expected. Macro projections were revised in line with expectations: GDP down in 2018 to 2.1% and inflation up in 2018 and 2019 to 1.7%.

Available in Spanish, English

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World Trade at a Crossroads

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USA, EU and China are the main nodes of the world trade network. 1980-2008 was the most recent period of high dynamism of trade boosted by EM growth, technological and logistic advances and, last but not least, enhanced multilateralism approach. The globalization challenge is to reach a more even distribution of its benefits and protectionism is the wrong policy.

Available in English

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Turkey | Still solid activity in April…to decelerate

By , , , ,

The Industrial production (IP) grew by 6.2% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, slightly above the market consensus of 5.65% in April. Our monthly GDP indicator still nowcasts slightly below 6% yoy growth for 2Q18 as of May. Considering the overheating in the 1Q and the 500bps tightening in last two months, we expect GDP growth to be near 3.5% this year.

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