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Global | Macroeconomic environment slightly less favorable in 2019 and 2020

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Global growth has slowed in recent months, affected by protectionist tensions, with a negative impact on financial markets that has been partly reversed thanks to the reaction of central banks. Our new GDP forecasts imply lower overall growth in 2019 and 2020 (3.5% and 3.4% respectively).

Geographies:Global

Available in Spanish, English

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Portugal | Economic growth moderates in 2S18

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BBVA Research estimates that growth in the Portuguese economy in 4Q18 was around 0.4% QoQ SWDA. Domestic demand will have continued to be the main support of activity, while the external sector’s contribution to growth will have remained negative. This would be consistent with BBVA Research’s forecast for Portugal’s GDP growth in 2018 (2.1% YoY) and 2019 (1.8% YoY).

Geographies:Portugal

Available in Portuguese, Spanish, English

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Turkey | The CBRT stays tight with deeds and words

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The Central Bank (CBRT) kept its policy rate (one-week repo, 24%) unchanged in line with expectations. We consider the decision as the right one as it supports the disinflation path and reinforces credibility. In our view, the CBRT should wait for June (when the recovery in inflation becomes more obvious) to start an easing cycle.

Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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U.S. | Gone Baby Gone. Implications of a declining fertility rate

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The purpose of this report is to present some of the most important drivers and implications of a declining fertility rate in the U.S. According to the U.S. National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), the general fertility rate -number of births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44- declined to 60.3 in 2017.

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey: Sharp contraction in Industrial Production (IP)

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IP fell by 6.5% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in November, disappointing the expectations (BBVA: -5.8%, Consensus: -5.4%). Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a contraction of 1.6% yoy growth in December (with 32% info), which is still consistent with our 3% 2018 GDP growth estimate but with some downside risks. We maintain our 2019 GDP growth forecast at 1%.

Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Available in English

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Mexico | Actions to boost the financial sector point in the right direction

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The objectives of the proposals are: a) to deepen both the banking sector and the stock market, b) to have more efficient payment metods for the population and, c) in general, to make more efficient the task of capturing and promoting savings, as well as channeling it to productive investment.

Available in Spanish

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Infographic Peru Promoting financial development in the context of Middle-Income Trap

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Between 2011 and 2017, the economy has grown on average 4.8% annually, while the LAC average is 1.7%

Available in English

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Infographic Mexico Promoting financial development in the context of Middle-Income Trap

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Between 2011 and 2017, the economy has grown on average 2.6% annually, while the LAC average is 1.7%

Available in English

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Geo-World: Conflict & Protest December 2018

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U.S. President Trump announced that Washington would pull all of its troops out of Syria. In Europe, 'Yellow vests' protests movement sharply rose in France and spilled over into other European countries, increasing concerns on social stability. The trade truce between China and the U.S. and positive developments in the Korean Peninsula created a calm environment in Asia.

Available in Spanish, English

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Available in English

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Turkey | Inflation declines again in December

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Consumer prices fell by -0.4% in December, leading the annual figure to further ease to 20.3% from 21.6% in November. Considering the recent price regulations, risks are balanced on our year-end inflation expectation of 16%. Though, the path for output gap, oil prices and currency volatility will be the determinant factors on inflation.

Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Colombia Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

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The Colombian economy has remained robust amid turmoil in markets. As a result, some assets, such as sovereign debt and risk premiums, have not been impacted by these fluctuations, and only the exchange rate registered a slight depreciation. High oil prices and the reduction of external imbalances in recent years helped the economy to be more resilient.

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

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Global economy. Mexico, Economic Activity. Downward rigidity of core inflation and restrictive stance of Banxico. 2019 public accounts and budget. External accounts. Domestic assets are being affected by the new administration’s decisions.

Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | GDP growth still slows gradually, but high uncertainty could take its toll

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According to our MICA model the Eurozone could grow around 0.4% QoQ in 4T18. However, low global demand and high uncertainty are weighing on activity. Hard data improved during October driven by lower inflation, higher wages, increasing production in capital goods and rise in exports. Nevertheless, confidence indicators are worsening by year end.

Geographies:Europe

Available in Spanish, English

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