Macroeconomic Analysis

Social Security affiliation grew by 128,500 people and unemployment fell by 28,700. Adjusted for seasonal factors, job creation is estimated to have accelerated to 80,000 contributors and the number of unemployed fell by 2,700. In 2Q26, employment advanced by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter SA and unemployment decreased by 1.2%.

The productivity debate requires distinguishing between output per worker, output per hour, and total factor productivity. Confusing these metrics can lead to inaccurate interpretations regarding the convergence of Europe or Spain with the United States.

The national unemployment rate declined to 8.0%, reaching historic lows, while employment growth accelerated to 4.0% year-on-year, driven primarily by the public administration, education and health sector.

We estimate the impact of the 2025 U.S. tariff increases by comparing sector- and country-level U.S. imports before and after their implementation, finding that exports to the United States declined by about 2% for every percentage-point increase in the tariff rate.

Immigration has played a significant role in the recent improvement of GDP per capita in Spain, driven by increases in both employment and productivity. The key question moving forward is whether the Spanish economy will be able to better leverage the human capital it is taking in.

The conflict in the Middle East has caused a global economic shock in 2026 that is impacting Latin America. Rising commodity prices and logistics costs have triggered a spike in inflation and a slowdown in economic growth.

Colombia's economy will grow 2.6% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 driven by private consumption, amid global geopolitical tensions and cautious monetary policy. Activity faces challenges from weak investment, persistent inflation, and fiscal sustainability pressures.