Macroeconomic Analysis

The euro area faces renewed inflation risks following the failed ceasefire in the Middle East. The longer the conflict persists, the more buffers will be depleted, increasing the risk of non-linear effects and of the shock spreading to the broader economy.

Consumption in Peru grew 8.9% year-on-year in July. This advance is supported by a strong labor market and credit, despite inflation. Spending digitalization continues to rise, with intensive use of cards and online channels.

This Working Paper analyzes the 2024 settlement of the financing system for Spain's common-regime autonomous communities. It calculates the definitive financing for homogeneous competences, which grew by 9.45% compared to 2023. It also quantifies interregional redistribution flows and the evolution of resources until 2027.

The geopolitical context has driven Spain to enter an expansionary cycle and reach the defense spending target of 2% of GDP in 2025. A structural change aimed at military modernization through major programs is observed, with a central role for the domestic industry and greater European cooperation.

Social Security affiliation increased by 41,700 people and unemployment by 19,500. Seasonally adjusted, an increase of 72,000 contributors and a rise of 14,500 unemployed are estimated. The extraordinary regularization of immigrants may have added 149,200 foreign affiliates and 44,500 unemployed up to July.

The Plan has awarded €62.7 billion, 78% of the amount planned. Individuals and SMEs account for most beneficiaries; large and medium-sized firms for the amount awarded. Implementation is higher in lower-income regions. Two months before the deadline, the current implementation rate is not enough to complete the commitments.

The Colombian labor market closed a solid first half of 2026. In June, the unemployment rate stood at 8.0%, the lowest for this month since 2001. However, sectoral drivers shifted, with public administration playing a less prominent role compared to other sectors.