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In its September meeting, the Board of the Central Bank decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the real ex-ante reference rate, remains in restrictive territory.
August inflation was 4.2% m/m and core inflation accelerated again. We revised our 2024 projection from 135% to 130% due to a longer than expected exchange rate crawling peg.
This paper examines the performance of Random Forest models in forecasting short-term monthly inflation in Argentina, based on a database of monthly indicators since 1962.
La Rioja's GDP will grow by 2.5% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025, exceeding the pre-crisis level by 8%, and 2,600 new jobs will be created.
Following Law 21/2021 and the Intergenerational Equity Mechanism (IEM), Social Security contributions rose by 0.7 points without generating higher future pensions. Although the reserve fund is growing, the pensions system faces a significant de…
In August, monthly inflation was 0.00% and annual inflation was 6.12%, surprisingly well below market analysts' expectations according to Banco de la República's survey (0.24%). With this, the result is 74 bps below the previous month's figure and accelerates the pace of adjustments of previous months.
In 2024, remittances in dollars grew by 17.7%, accumulating 6,634 million between January and July. However, this growth was lower in Colombian pesos due to a lower exchange rate. The depreciation of the exchange rate in the second half of the year is expected to further boost their value in pesos.
Consumer prices rose by %2.47 m/m in August, higher than our expectation (2.2%) and consensus (2.3%). As a result, annual consumer inflation came down to 51.9% from 61.8% previously. We forecast inflation trend to improve; reaching 1.5-2% month…
In the second quarter of 2024, the current account deficit stood at 1.6% of GDP, the lowest level since 2009. FDI fell to 2.75% of GDP, though it was sufficient to finance the deficit. The deficit is expected to close 2024 at around 3% of GDP.
Social Security affiliation fell by 193,700, and unemployment increased by 21,900 due to seasonal factors. After adjusting for this factor, it is estimated that the number of contributors rose by 23,000, while the unemployed decreased by 4,500.…
Turkish economy grew by 0.1% q/q and 2.5% y/y in 2Q24. Significant revisions in both 2023 and 1Q24 resulted in a moderation of the quarterly growth path with 0.1% growth in 2Q24 after 1.4% in 1Q24 (vs. 2.4% before revision) in contrast with our previous mild contraction expectation.
The year 2023 ended with a declining banking sector marked by the contraction of credit and the slowdown in deposits due to the ECB's restrictive monetary policy. However, the easing of interest rates and this monetary policy in 2024 has improved credit performance and boosted growth of deposits
