Macroeconomic Analysis

This report analyzes labor productivity in China from 2013 to 2023. Despite a slight slowdown, growth remained robust. The key was the boom in high-productivity services, which offset the slowdown in the manufacturing sector, demonstrating a successful rebalancing towards a service-driven economy.

Inflation in Spain moderated in June due to lower oil prices and government measures. However, over the medium term, higher business costs and the cyclical economic situation suggest that inflation will remain higher than that of the eurozone.

Climate damage functions translate acute and chronic hazards into economic losses, from asset-value damage to GDP impacts. As no single function captures every hazard or transmission channel, banks must carefully calibrate and combine them, avoiding double counting while accounting for uncertainty.

Peru's economic activity grew 1.8% year-on-year in May, below expectations, due to climate anomalies that impacted primary sectors. Despite this, non-primary sectors, driven by domestic demand, maintained their dynamism.

Headline inflation stabilized at 3.2% year-on-year in June, while core inflation eased by 0.1 pp to 2.9%. Both figures came in below expectations. Estimates for July suggest, however, that headline inflation could rise to between 3.5% and 3.7%.

June's inflation in Argentina was 1.9% monthly, marking the third consecutive slowdown and the lowest level in ten months. This figure, slightly below expectations, brings the year-to-date accumulation to 16.8%. The 2026 inflation forecast is maintained at 29%, with a downward bias.

The Basque Country economy will maintain growth close to 2% over the two-year period, supported by the strength of the labor market, private consumption and investment, although the deterioration in the international environment increases uncertainty and risks to activity.