Türkiye | The impact of climate change on tourism demand in Türkiye

Summary

Tourism activities are highly dependent on weather conditions, and hence, vulnerable to the impact of climate change. Our analysis of Turkish tourism demand within the context of climate conditions points to possible changes in seasonality and quantity of tourism flows across provinces, depending on their tourism type.

Key points

Key points:
We contribute to the existing literature by estimating the impact of climate conditions on tourism demand on a monthly basis across 72 provinces, utilizing two different index methodologies namely Tourism Climate Index (TCI) and Holiday Climate Index (HCI), controlling for the effect of income and price levels.
We understand that climate change may extend the tourist season into the spring and autumn, as these periods become more climatically favorable compared to the increasingly extreme summer months.
Our results point to a major loss in tourism demand in the most severe climate scenario in the Southern Coast of Türkiye, characterized by beach tourism, and in mountainous areas characterized by ski tourism. Increasing temperatures coupled with higher moisture decrease the climate comfort thereby reducing the attractiveness of destinations located on the Mediterranean coast.
By the end of the century, the net effect of climate on tourism, compared to the 2024-2030 period, is estimated to range between nearly zero and -5.1%, depending on the temperature scenario.
The choice of different tourism climate indices changes the magnitude of tourism loss, but the qualitative conclusions (changes in the seasonal and geographical pattern of tourism) are robust.