Spain | 2025 Regional GDP Advance Estimate

The 2025 regional GDP advance estimate shows moderate differences from the BBVA Research scenario, although there were significant surprises in some agricultural and tourism-intensive regions following the revision of the National Accounts.

Key points

• Key points:
• The INE puts Spain’s GDP growth in 2025 at 2.6%, compared with the 2.8% envisaged in the June scenario. Once this national revision is taken into account, deviations at the regional level are relatively contained across much of the country
• The largest upside surprises were concentrated in regions with a significant agricultural sector: Murcia, Extremadura, La Rioja and Castile and León recorded the strongest GDP growth, followed by Galicia, Andalusia, Castile-La Mancha and Aragon. In particular, deviations from the BBVA Research scenario were sizeable in Aragon, Extremadura and Castile and León, where growth had been expected to remain below the national average. The INE’s recent upward revision to the primary sector’s contribution to national GDP growth last year, which was not incorporated into BBVA Research forecasts, partly explains these differences.
• The main downside surprises were in the Canary Islands, the Valencian Community and the Balearic Islands. The INE estimates growth of 2.1%, 2.3% and 2.5%, respectively, compared with BBVA Research forecasts above the national average. The expected strength of tourism and, in Valencia, the boost from measures adopted following the DANA, proved weaker than anticipated.
• Madrid, Catalonia and the more industrial regions, meanwhile, performed broadly in line with expectations. Madrid grew above the national average, Catalonia by one tenth less, while Navarre, the Basque Country, Asturias and Cantabria posted weaker growth.
• In cumulative terms since 2019, the revisions improve the relative position of several regions: Extremadura, Aragon, Madrid and Andalusia have been revised upwards compared with previous estimates, while the islands, Asturias and La Rioja have been revised downwards. Galicia and Extremadura also stand out as the regions with the strongest real GDP per capita growth since 2019.

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