Publications

Annual inflation in Peru rose to 4.5% in September, with a monthly variation of 0.12%. This result is explained by supply-side factors, such as the rise in fuel and some food prices. Inflation excluding food and energy also stood at 4.5%, exceeding the Central Bank's target range.

The 2025 regional GDP advance estimate shows moderate differences from the BBVA Research scenario, although there were significant surprises in some agricultural and tourism-intensive regions following the revision of the National Accounts.

Brazil’s economy is slowing: growth is expected to reach 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. Supply-side pressures will push inflation higher, but weak demand will likely allow for further Selic rate cuts. The post-election political landscape will shape the outlook and the balance of risks.

Extremadura is expected to maintain solid growth of close to 2% in 2026-2027, supported by consumption, investment and job creation, with relatively favourable GDP per capita performance. A worsening external backdrop, weak exports and agricultural activity, and structural bottlenecks will weigh on the outlook.

In 2Q26, GDP grew by 0.7% q/q, one tenth above expectations, reinforcing the upward bias on the growth forecast for 2026. Domestic demand gained strength, driven by private consumption and investment. Employment maintained a solid advance, although productivity showed an uneven evolution.

Colombia’s economy will grow 2.6% in 2026, ease to 2.3% in 2027, and rebound to 3.1% in 2028. The 2027 slowdown will be temporary as growth shifts from public to private-sector support, which will strengthen in 2028. Fiscal imbalances and inflation remain the key challenges ahead.

The BBVA Research Multidimensional Manufacturing Indicator (IMM BBVA Research) grew 3.2% YoY in August, broadly unchanged from the 1H26 average (3.1%).