Publications

Peru's economic activity grew 1.8% year-on-year in May, below expectations, due to climate anomalies that impacted primary sectors. Despite this, non-primary sectors, driven by domestic demand, maintained their dynamism.

Headline inflation stabilized at 3.2% year-on-year in June, while core inflation eased by 0.1 pp to 2.9%. Both figures came in below expectations. Estimates for July suggest, however, that headline inflation could rise to between 3.5% and 3.7%.

In June, formal employment in Mexico grew by 2.0% annually (IMSS). Excluding digital platform workers, effective growth is only 1.0%. This confirms a limited labor market recovery and a constrained impact from the 2026 World Cup.

The Basque Country economy will maintain growth close to 2% over the two-year period, supported by the strength of the labor market, private consumption and investment, although the deterioration in the international environment increases uncertainty and risks to activity.

The conflict in the Middle East has caused a global economic shock in 2026 that is impacting Latin America. Rising commodity prices and logistics costs have triggered a spike in inflation and a slowdown in economic growth.

Colombia's economy will grow 2.6% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 driven by private consumption, amid global geopolitical tensions and cautious monetary policy. Activity faces challenges from weak investment, persistent inflation, and fiscal sustainability pressures.

Headline inflation slowed to 3.2% year-on-year, driven primarily by energy prices and, to a lesser extent, services. Meanwhile, core inflation moderated to 2.8%. However, BBVA Research estimates that headline inflation could rise to 3.4% or 3.5% in May.