Publications

The BBVA Research Multidimensional Manufacturing Indicator grew 3.5% YoY in July, slowing compared with the previous month. The sector’s weaker momentum comes amid a slowdown in U.S. private spending, suggesting a cooling of manufacturing activity in the second half of 2026.

The Colombian economy accelerated in the second quarter, with GDP growth of 3.5% year-on-year, driven by domestic demand (+4.9%). This gap was covered by a 7.5% increase in imports, while exports fell. Public spending was a key, but temporary, driver.

The Central Reserve Bank of Peru decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.25% for the eleventh consecutive month. Although inflation is expected to return to the 2% target range, there are warnings of risks such as the El Niño phenomenon and geopolitical tensions that could generate more persistent effects.

Argentina's national inflation in July was 2.1% month-on-month (33.8% y/y), exceeding expectations. This acceleration was mainly driven by seasonal price dynamics during the winter holidays. The 2026 inflation forecast is maintained at 29%, with an upward bias.

Spain has completed its corporate deleveraging. In March 2026, credit to companies grew by 3.6% year-on-year, albeit unevenly. Services, with a 5.4% increase, are leading the recovery, while industry and construction are still reducing their credit. Future expansion will depend on investment.

The article analyzes the shift in the US Federal Reserve's communication strategy under Kevin Warsh. Forward guidance is abandoned for a descriptive approach amid high economic uncertainty, highlighting the importance of clear communication to anchor market expectations.

Year-on-year inflation in Peru rose to 4.1% in July (0.29% monthly), exceeding the central bank's target range. The increase is attributed to food supply restrictions and seasonal factors. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also picked up, standing at 4.6% year-on-year.