Publications

The article analyzes the shift in the US Federal Reserve's communication strategy under Kevin Warsh. Forward guidance is abandoned for a descriptive approach amid high economic uncertainty, highlighting the importance of clear communication to anchor market expectations.

This Working Paper analyzes the 2024 settlement of the financing system for Spain's common-regime autonomous communities. It calculates the definitive financing for homogeneous competences, which grew by 9.45% compared to 2023. It also quantifies interregional redistribution flows and the evolution of resources until 2027.

Consumer price inflation came in at 1.78% m/m, slightly below our expectation (1.85% m/m) and the consensus (1.9% m/m), bringing annual inflation down to 31.8%. We continue to maintain our 30% year-end inflation forecast, considering volatile energy prices and still-elevated, unanchored inflation expectations.

The Central Bank of Colombia kept the policy rate at 12% in a split decision. Additionally, a reserve accumulation program was announced.

GDP grew by 1.5% QoQ in 2Q26, bringing cumulative growth in the first half of the year to 1.2% YoY. Looking ahead, we expect the World Cup-related boost to fade, with weak domestic demand once again becoming the main driver of the outlook.

In 2Q26, GDP grew by 0.7% QoQ, one tenth higher than expected, which introduces an upward bias to the 2026 forecast. Private consumption remained solid, while investment and exports advanced less than expected. Employment supported growth and productivity showed mixed signs.

Peru's economic activity grew 1.8% year-on-year in May, below expectations, due to climate anomalies that impacted primary sectors. Despite this, non-primary sectors, driven by domestic demand, maintained their dynamism.