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May 16, 2025
A key indication that Banxico's primary concern has shifted from inflation to growth is its acknowledgment, for the first time, that “since the inflationary episode has been left behind,” the fight against inflation is at a new stage.
May 13, 2025
In contrast to the Fed, who held rates unchanged last week, Banxico has room to continue cutting rates. A low exchange rate pass-through and deeper domestic capital markets grant Banxico greater policy independence from the Fed than in the past.
May 9, 2025
Annual inflation in April surprises on the upside (5.2%), driven by regulated items and goods. Core inflation (excluding food) also increases. Doubts persist regarding the speed of future moderation. This result may lead to upward revisions of forecasts and uncertainty about the future monetary policy stance.
May 9, 2025
At its May meeting, the Board of the Central Bank lowered the reference interest rate to 4.50%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the ex-ante real reference rate, thus stands close to the level estimated to be neutral.
May 8, 2025
Recent softness in sentiment is not enough to shift policy as solid demand and stable jobs data support a continued pause. Attention now turns to assess whether this cautious pause could extend deeper into the second half of the year.
May 5, 2025
Amid mixed economic data and the delayed effects of recently imposed tariffs, we expect the Fed to keep the policy rate unchanged this week at its 4.25-4.50% target range; it will likely signal it has room to maintain its policy stance heading into the June meeting.
May 2, 2025
In April 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.32%, exceeding expectations. The increase was driven by seasonal factors related to Easter, which pushed up the prices of fishery products and transportation services. Poultry prices also rose again. In contrast, fuel prices declined.
April 28, 2025
The dollar's recent fall has reignited the debate about the possible end of its hegemony in the global financial architecture. A question that has once again fed an old European desire: for the euro to consolidate its position as a reserve currency and safe haven.
April 25, 2025
Colombia aims to cut its fiscal deficit to 5.1% of GDP in 2025, but success depends on swift institutional reforms, clear spending plans, and transparent financing. In a volatile global context, timely and credible messages are key to maintaining investor confidence.
April 24, 2025
While Trump recently suggested he would not try to remove Powell from his position following last week’s intensified criticism, such threats to institutions underpinning the dollar’s global dominance pose a serious risk to the future of the global financial system.
April 11, 2025
In its April meeting, the Board of the Central Bank decided to keep the policy rate at 4.75%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the real ex-ante reference rate, remains slightly above neutral.
April 8, 2025
In March 2025 Colombia's total inflation decreased to an annual rate of 5.1% breaking a four-month period of stability or slight increase. This moderation was primarily driven by a decline in non-food inflation, particularly due to the regulated basket. March monthly inflation was 0.52% falling below analysts' expectations.
