Publications

Unless the labor market weakens more decisively or tariff-driven price pressures fade faster than expected, the FOMC is likely to remain on hold in January and adopt a more patient, data-dependent posture thereafter.

While a highly divided vote is likely, we see little upside for the Fed in delivering a surprise pause. A key takeaway will likely be that the room for “risk-management” cuts has run their course and the Fed will pause early next year.

CPI rose 0.11% m/m in November, driven by higher prices in food, restaurants and transport. Despite the monthly increase, annual inflation remained stable at 1.4%, within the Central Bank’s target range.

We present a summary and analysis of the most relevant developments and publications in Mexico's financial regulatory landscape.

After the fastest monetary tightening cycle in decades (2022-2023), the main central banks have begun a process of lowering interest rates, with the “last mile” characterized by a cautious approach.

We enter a new data-dependent phase in which the Board monitors core inflation before signaling it may lower the ex-ante real policy rate close to the 2.7% midpoint of its estimated neutral range.

Lima’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.10% m/m in October. Despite the decline—driven by lower prices in communications, food, and energy—annual inflation remained virtually stable at 1.4% compared to September, within the Central Bank’s target range.