Publications

The absence of new language suggesting increased caution—despite recent core inflation stickiness—indicates that most members remain open to continuing the easing cycle, albeit at the current more gradual pace of 25 bps per meeting.

Lingering challenges for the growth outlook should maintain Banxico’s confidence that monetary policy can (and should) continue to ease. We think Banxico will remain confident in further services disinflation ahead and will proceed with a 25bp rate cut this week.

A rate cut in September remains a possibility if the labor market proves to be "on the edge" and weakens sharply, but that seems unlikely at this point. For now, "we have a long way to go to really understand exactly how [the tariff-related inflationary effect] will be."

We expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at this week’s meeting and do not anticipate growing dovish support. The uncertainty over the end level of tariffs and its inflation impact, along with a still solid labor market, give the Fed room to wait.

A global reserve currency is not just a symbol of power: it is the functional backbone of the international financial system. It is used to set prices, settle transactions, issue debt and, above all, provide liquidity. So what would happen if it didn’t exist?

Lagarde cooled expectations of another rate cut this year, reinforcing a more cautious, data-dependent stance. If the global outlook holds steady and no surprises arise in inflation or activity, the ECB may have already reached the end of its easing cycle.

The recent appreciation of the euro against the dollar—more than 10% since the lows at the beginning of the year—has shifted the price competitiveness of Spanish companies and the purchasing power of households.

In the second week of September, Bre-B, the new low-value payment system developed by the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la República), will become operational. Its value proposition includes the ability to make payments and transfers that are free, secure, and easy between individuals and businesses.