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The BBVA Forum is a quarterly event aimed at the bank's clients. In each edition, we present a summary of our global and national economic outlook as a contribution to their short- and medium-term financial decisions.

In its June decision, the Board of the Central Bank decided maintain the reference rate at 5.75%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the real ex-ante reference rate, remains in restrictive territory.

With the fed funds rate at its peak, growing chances of disinflation resuming in 2Q24 and more balanced risks, the Fed is likely to remain cautious in determining the timing of a first rate cut.

Intermeeting developments will likely not change the already-conveyed Fed message that more good data is needed to gain enough confidence in progress toward 2% inflation; the debate around the policy stance will continue to focus on for how lon…

No major news has come out today as the rate cut was universally expected and the ECB does not want to pre-commit to the path of future cuts. We still expect two further cuts this year, in September and December, if there are no major surprises…

The ECB will most likely lower its interest rates at its monetary policy meeting this week. This decision has long been anticipated, suggested at previous meetings, and even clearly accepted in statements by the more hawkish members of the Governing Council.

Policy rate expectations and Treasury yields eased from their late-April’s highs on softer employment and inflation data released recently.

We summarize China’s Balance of Payments situation in 2023 post-pandemic time and compare it with the pandemic time; we also predict its trend in 2024.

While members continued to state that “the disinflation process is expected to continue,” the stickiness of core services inflation drove Banxico to revise up its inflation forecasts after considering that “inflationary shocks are foreseen to t…

The favorable core inflation trend gives Banxico room to continue lowering the policy rate, which will remain tight during 2024-25 despite a gradual rate cut cycle, but we now expect Banxico to pause the rate cut cycle this week and take rates …

In a context of a strong economy and a lack of further progress on inflation in recent months, the Fed unequivocally signaled that it can be patient and will give the restrictive monetary policy stance more time to do its job before deciding to cut rates.

Banrep Board maintains March's pace of cuts, with a 50bp reduction in April, accumulating a total of 150bp since it started its downward rate cycle in December 2023. The decision was split, with 5 members in favor of the 50bp reduction, one member in favor of a 75bp reduction and one in favor of a 100bp reduction.