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Divisions among Fed members before the blackout period are evident: the hawks think the Fed needs to go further, others seem to support a pause to wait until the economic picture becomes clearer, and some others seem to think that the Fed has done enough to bring inflation down.
The end of the pandemic also marked the end of more than a decade of near-zero interest rates, fueled by ample liquidity from central banks.
There was some suspense ahead of last Thursday’s meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) as to the size of the rate hike (between 25 and 50 basis points), with the ECB ultimately choosing the lesser of two evils.
Overall, today’s meeting makes it clear that following the widely expected next rate hike in June (to 3.50%/4.00%, depo/refi rate), more rate increases are quite likely, although they will also depend on the nature of incoming activity data and…
The overall tone of the statement remained hawkish amid first-quarter developments in the real economy, but for the first time since the beginning of the tightening cycle the Fed no longer explicitly “anticipates” the need for more hikes ahead.
Over the past six months, the euro has experienced a significant appreciation against the dollar, from lows below parity last fall to levels of around 1.10 in recent weeks. This somewhat expected appreciation has come sooner than anticipated.
Markets now forecast two 25bp rate cuts for the two last FOMC meetings this year in November and December. We continue to expect that after this final hike the Fed will pause for the remainder of the year.
At its April meeting, the Central Bank increased the monetary policy rate by 25bp, bringing it to 13.25%. The vote was split, with 2 members voting in favor of holding rates steady, one in favor of a 50bp increase and 4 in favor of a 25bp incre…
As suggested by the FOMC last month, “some additional policy firming” will likely mean that the Fed will decide to take the fed funds rate to a 5.00- 5.25% target range peak next wednesday through a final 25bp rate hike.
The Chinese economy rebounded significantly in Q1 with 4.5% higher-than-expected growth. However, we need to pay attention to the recent deflationary pressure amid economic recovery.
This week the meetings organized each year by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank are taking place, just a few weeks after episodes of financial turbulence occurred.
The Board of the Central Bank decided to maintain the monetary policy rate at 7.75% in April. The Bank maintained the monetary policy stance understood as the real ex-ante policy rate at a restrictive level.
