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Fed’s quest to preserve the soft landing began today: it unequivocally confirmed that its focus has shifted to the labor market. It doesn’t look overly concerned about a hard landing, but rather signals its commitment “not to get behind” during the rate cut cycle.
Fed’s focus has shifted to the labor market and, in view of monetary policy lags, achieving a soft landing is now its main worry. This means the FOMC will not wait for weak labor market conditions before softening the policy stance.
As expected, the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as inflation improves and medium-term risks diminish. Christine Lagarde dropped no hints regarding possible future decisions, as per the central bank’s recent policy of taking action m…
In its September meeting, the Board of the Central Bank decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the real ex-ante reference rate, remains in restrictive territory.
today’s ECB meeting did not offer much new information, as widely expected, apart from making the second rate cut this year. With virtually no hints today, this meeting supports our expectation of a very gradual cycle of rate cuts, with one mor…
August inflation was 4.2% m/m and core inflation accelerated again. We revised our 2024 projection from 135% to 130% due to a longer than expected exchange rate crawling peg.
This paper examines the performance of Random Forest models in forecasting short-term monthly inflation in Argentina, based on a database of monthly indicators since 1962.
The year 2023 ended with a declining banking sector marked by the contraction of credit and the slowdown in deposits due to the ECB's restrictive monetary policy. However, the easing of interest rates and this monetary policy in 2024 has improv…
July’s meeting minutes confirmed a Fed’s dovish shift, with "a vast majority" of FOMC officials observing that "it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting."
The first half of 2024 has been a period of high volatility in the foreign exchange markets, with various changing factors significantly influencing behavior. Ultimately, since the beginning of the year, there have been moderate depreciations i…
Cybersecurity has become a strategic priority for the main global bodies responsible for ensuring financial stability, as well as for banking authorities in the European Union (EU).
In its August decision, the Board of the Central Bank decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the real ex-ante reference rate, remains in restrictive territory.
