Financial Economics & Central Banking
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Banxico raised the policy rate by 75bp to 7.75% and signaled that another hike of this size was possible at its next meeting, but also that a larger hike was unlikely
June 22, 2022
Banxico will act “more forcefully” and deliver, a widely anticipated, larger 75bp hike
There is (now) a wide consensus that Banxico will match Fed’s expected hikes through December, taking the policy rate to 9.50% by year-end
They will peak once the Fed is done tightening. Slowing demand to bring down inflation without significant pain is “not getting any easier”, but markets (still?) price in a soft landing.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has taken a further step in its process of normalizing monetary policy by announcing at its latest meeting that it will end its asset purchase program in July, and that it is prepared to pick up the pace of its rate hikes to contain inflation, in line with other central banks.
The main goal is to avoid long-run inflation expectations de-anchoring; rates will be at a “modestly restrictive level” by year-end.
We now expect more rate hike front-loading as the FOMC turns more hawkish following persistently high inflation readings from last week.
At last week's ECB meeting Christine Lagarde announced that the central bank has started out on a "journey" toward the normalization of monetary policy through a series of measures that it will take gradually over the next few months.
The Board of the Central Bank decided to increase the monetary policy rate from 5.00% to 5.50% in June. The Bank continues the normalization of monetary policy in a context of lesser external headwinds and pessimistic expectations.