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The futures market is almost fully pricing in that the Fed will cut rates by 50 bps this year (95% implied chances) and continue to anticipate roughly 100 bps worth of rate cuts next year. Markets are certain of a rate cut in September, but are also likely pricing in risks in the event of a Trump’s second term.
The Central Bank kept the policy rate at 50% in line with expectations, maintaining a wait and see approach with a hawkish message. They highlight a potential temporary increase in monthly inflation in July, but expect the rise in the underlying inflation trend to be limited.
In a particularly turbulent environment such as this, it is worth highlighting the calm, rationality, consistency as well as humility with which central banks are implementing their monetary policy.
As expected, the ECB leaves its monetary policy unchanged and leaves the door open for a rate cut at the next meeting in September, awaiting for more data on wages, profit margins and productivity that confirm its inflation outlook.
National inflation in June was 4.6% MoM (271.5% YoY) and accelerated with respect to the previous month (4.2% MoM) for the first time in the Milei administration but due to the disparate behaviour of regulated prices in both months. Even so, th…
Higher interest rates have had no significant effect on risk assets. Ample liquidity, the soft landing of the economy and contained corporate and household balance sheets are behind this trend.
In its July decision, the Board of the Central Bank decided maintain the reference rate at 5.75%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the real ex-ante reference rate, remains in restrictive territory.
Credit to the SPNF maintained double-digit nominal growth rates in May (11.4%) driven by the dynamism of the consumer portfolio, particularly in the automotive segment, and a rebound in business credit. This rebound stemmed from credit to the …
The once-every-five-years Third Plenary Session of 20th Central Committee of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) always has a potential to become a milestone moment in China’s history.
June inflation was 0.12% MoM. The result for the month is explained by the increase in the prices of foods such as fish and potatoes, moderated by the decrease in the prices of chicken, some fruits, and fuel. The year-on-year rate was 2.3% (2.0…
The last two years in Latin America have been marked by differences in macroeconomic policy strategies. Chile and Peru have made significant interest rate reductions as their inflation has allowed. Meanwhile, Colombia and Mexico are more reluctant to implement significant reductions in their rates.
Banrep's Board maintained the pace of rate cuts of the last meetings, with a 50bp reduction in June, accumulating a total of 200bp since it began its downward rate cycle in December 2023. The decision was split, with 4 members in favor of the 50bp reduction, two members in favor of a 75bp reduction.
