Publications

This Working Paper provides the first analysis of credit relationships between financial institutions and firms through the lens of hypergraphs. We applied empirically this approach to Credit Registry data from the Central Bank of Argentina, covering the period from Aug. 2023 to Dec. 2025 and focusing on commercial loans.

Banco de la República raised its policy rate by 75 basis points to 12.0%. The decision was split, with four Board members voting in favor of the increase, two supporting a 50-basis-point rate cut, and one voting to keep the policy rate unchanged

Central banks should not become climate activists. They should treat climate change and mitigation policies as macroeconomic drivers which can affect inflation, output, financial conditions, monetary transmission and, most importantly, inflation expectations.

The Eurozone and the United States are facing inflationary pressures that extend beyond energy, forcing the ECB and the Fed to raise their inflation forecasts. The central banks are shifting their course with varying degrees of determination.

The policy statement does not reveal how strongly Board members are committed to an extended pause, leaving the upcoming minutes as the key source to assess the strength of that consensus.

We expect Banxico to keep the policy rate unchanged at 6.50% this week and to reiterate its message that the current stance will remain in place for an extended period as it continues to monitor services inflation.

The FOMC will most likely keep the fed funds target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75% and shift to a more two-sided approach to future policy guidance. The case for maintaining an easing bias has weakened materially as labor market downside risks appear to have diminished, while inflation progress has become less convincing.