International Economics latest publications
The outbreak of the new and highly contagious strain of coronavirus in the Chinese city of Wuhan brings with it new doubts about the expected recovery of the global economy, and in particular about the growth of the world's second largest economy.
For the fourth consecutive year, remittances exceeded their historical maximum. 94.6% of remittances come from the US. Michoacán (3,584 md), Jalisco (3,499 md) and Guanajuato (3,286 md) were the main recipients of remittances in 2019. Remittances could grow 6.0% and reach 38.2 billion dollars in 2020.
This report presents an analysis of those global shocks, mostly of low probability, which may have a severe impact on the economy. Short-term risks have diminished on the back of easing trade tensions and interest rate cuts, but concerns on structural issues remain high (de-globalization and climate change).
January 21, 2020
Updated Global Outlook | Towards the stabilization of global growth, though risks persist
Recent data have been relatively positive and signal to some stabilization. Lower trade tensions, less uncertainty of a hard Brexit in the short-term, a lax monetary policy and somewhat expansionary fiscal policy should support a slightly higher growth. Global GDP will grow steadily at 3.2% in 2020 and 3.3% in 2021.
There are 272 million migrants in the world in 2019, 23.0% more than in 2010. Mexico is the 2nd country with more migrants in the world. In 2019 there are 12.4 million Mexican migrants in the U.S. Remittances to Mexico will exceed 36 billion dollars in 2019, which will be ranked 3rd in the world, displacing Philippines.
In the first six months of 2019 the net profit for the Spanish banking system has been EUR 5,326 M , 20% less than in the one obtained in the first semester of 2018, due to a weak second quarter. The key factors were weak revenues, cost control, and provisions which remain at minimum levels.
Further improvement of sovereign risk measures across the board, driven by a protracted search for yield, against the background of supportive central bank policies, together with better incoming cyclical data, muted inflation and some de-escalation of global uncertainties (trade war)