Publications

Although the USMCA remains in force until 2036, its annual reviews and its lower level of investment protection compared with other treaties reinforce the importance of a stable regulatory framework, reliable institutions, and the rule of law to provide long-term certainty required to attract investment to Mexico.

The El Niño phenomenon is not uniform; neither are its economic impacts. It can bring droughts or torrential rains, affecting each country differently. In Argentina it can favor crops, in Colombia it can generate inflationary pressures, and in Peru it can alter marine productivity and exports.

U.S. tariffs reduced imports by 2% for every point of increase. However, global trade remained resilient as Chinese products were replaced by goods from Asian economies and Mexico, reconfiguring supply chains without managing to reduce the trade deficit.

The U.S. decision not to extend the USMCA confirms our baseline scenario that the agreement will remain in force. The USMCA will remain in force until 2036 unless all three parties agree to extend it.

We estimate the impact of the 2025 U.S. tariff increases by comparing sector- and country-level U.S. imports before and after their implementation, finding that exports to the United States declined by about 2% for every percentage-point increase in the tariff rate.

Despite elevated and potentially rising US tariffs, global trade remains resilient. Supply chains continue to adapt, benefiting economies such as Vietnam, Taiwan and Mexico, while energy reallocation and AI-driven semiconductor demand sustain trade growth despite geopolitical disruptions and protectionist pressures.

The trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur opens up opportunities for industry and services, although questions remain regarding its impact on certain agricultural and livestock segments, as well as Europe’s ability to manage the trade tensions arising from openness.