International Economics latest publications
45.9% of women and 31.3% of men who sent remittances do so to cover health expenses (medical attention, medicines, laboratory tests, hospital, etc.) in households in Mexico. By the end of 2020, remittances could reach USD $ 39.4 billion, + 8.1% y/y.
Lima's Consumer Price Index rose 0.46% m/m in July, above market expectations (Bloomberg Consensus: 0.06% m/m). With July's monthly result, year-on-year inflation accelerated to 1.9%, compared to 1.6% the previous month.
August 3, 2020
Mexico | Remittances in the time of COVID-19: hypothesis and different effects by region
In the second quarter of 2020, very marked differentiated effects were seen in remittances by region. The states of the Northwest region and the Traditional region presented increases in their flow of remittances, while the Central and South-Southeast region contractions, which leads us to propose THREE HYPOTHESES.
The global economic scenario is defined by COVID-19, with a recession comparable to the Depression 90 years ago. It is also shaped by uncertainties including, the trajectory of the contagion curve and the achievement of herd immunity, for which having an effective and accessible vaccine will be a determining factor.
Isolation measures imposed in order to contain the propagation of the coronavirus are having a strong impact on GDP. In this context, we expect it to contract this year between -18% and -12%, with a rebound between 6,5% and 10,5% in 2021 that will, however, be insufficient to reach the level of activity observed in 2019.
July 1, 2020
Mexico | From 320 to 380 million dollars of additional remittances due to "Mother's Day"
Remittances to Mexico are unstoppable, despite the difficult economic conditions due to the Covid-19 crisis, 3,379 million USD reached Mexico, + 3.0% compared to the same month last year. In real terms, due to the exchange rate depreciation, they grew 23.8%.
The drop in the volume of global trade is reflecting the most severe global recession since the Second World War, both due to the economies affected and the intensity of the expected falls in GDP over the middle quarters of 2020.
In May, the number of infected people by covid-19 exceeded 6M, America became the epicenter. In the US, mass protests after a black citizen was killed in police custody have spread nationwide. US – China relationship has worsened due to the situation in Hong Kong. The war in Libya has escalated. G7 meeting to be postponed.