May 17, 2022
Labor Economics latest publications
The contracts statistics confirmed the increase in permanent contracts and the reduction in temporary ones. As a result, the temporary employment ratio declined, especially among the youngest people.
Economic activity grew 3.8% YoY in March, following a 4.9% print in February. The non-primary component grew 5.4%, reflecting the removal of sanitary isolation measures. The primary component of GDP fell -2.2%; the sterner contractions of Fishing and Metallic Mining stand out.
May 10, 2022
Mexico | Formal employment slows down in April, and job insecurity continues to increase
The generation of low-paid jobs characterizes the recovery of the labor market. Despite the high inflation levels, real wages and the wage bill maintain positive growth. We expect formal employment to continue posting favorable year-on-year growth rates but with a more moderate increase.
Once the last reform decision did not restrict the increase in spending and did not eliminate the actuarial imbalance, the sustainability of the pension system will involve a constant increase in taxation and transfers from central government, increasing the burden on the younger generations.
The forecasts of the Stability Program point to a fairly strong recovery, with GDP growth above potential, but the public accounts suggest a cyclical improvement of the deficit rather than its structural component.
Affiliation increased last month (184,600 people) -driven by permanent employment- and unemployment fell (-86,300 people). Seasonally adjusted, this pattern was maintained. Employment grew (90,000) and the temporary employment ratio fell (to 58%) and unemployment (-50,000).
The economy slowed down more than expected in 1Q22 (to 0.3% q/q), mainly due to the weakness of private consumption. However, there are some positive elements in the composition of demand, as growth was supported by a higher-than-expected advance in investment and exports.
Negative seasonality caused a decline in employment (-100,200) and an increase in the unemployment rate (13.6%). However, the adjusted figures (SWDA) are positive: employment grew by 1.1% qoq, hours worked by 0.8%, the unemployment rate fell to 13.0% and the seasonality rate hardly changed (25.1%).