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Employment continues to slow down, with minimal monthly increases. According to the IMSS, formal employment grew by 1.8% annually in August, 0.2 points less than in June and July. Seasonally adjusted job creation has shown three months of 0.1% variations, reflecting weakness in annual variations.
Social Security affiliation fell by 193,700, and unemployment increased by 21,900 due to seasonal factors. After adjusting for this factor, it is estimated that the number of contributors rose by 23,000, while the unemployed decreased by 4,500. The percentage of affiliates with temporary contracts increased marginally.
The national unemployment rate stood at 9.9% in July, up from 9.6% in July 2023. Seasonally adjusted, July's rate was down from June and below the average level of the first half of the year, showing an improvement in the labour market.
Formal employment grew by 2.0% year-on-year in July, similar to the previous month but 0.2 percentage points below the forecast. A moderate improvement is expected in the coming months. Permanent employment has shown resilience, with 322 thousa…
Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Spain has grown more than the EU, but the data offers an alternate view when, instead of comparing the aggregate performance of activity and employment, we focus on per capita growth.
Although the Unemployment Rate (UR) increase raises concerns, it remains just 0.1 percentage points away from the Federal Reserve's long-term target, and the July figure didn't trigger the Sahm Rule due to changes in the calculation. Ongoing monitoring of the UR is necessary to assess future risks.
Europe and the U.S. are considering how to increase the weight of manufacturing in the production structure. Since the beginning of the pandemic, fiscal plans and tariff policies have been announced to boost or protect certain sectors.
Excluding positive seasonality, both employment (0.4% QoQ) and hours worked (0.5% QoQ) increased, but at a slower pace than Social Security affiliation (0.8% QoQ). Additionally, both the temporary employment rate and the unemployment rate dropp…
The labor productivity gap between Spain and the eurozone has expanded over the past decade, despite higher gains in value added per hour and per worker in Spain since 2022.
Despite the slowdown, permanent formal employment has shown constant gains. In June, formal employment had a year-on-year growth of 2.0%, 0.1 percentage points below our forecast, confirming the expected deceleration trend.
Spain faces two problems hindering its per capita income convergence toward the EU level: unemployment and low productivity growth.
Mexico faces significant structural economic challenges, with informality standing out as one of the most complex to address. Although there have been efforts to understand and analyze informality from various perspectives, these efforts have little impact as they remain outside the debate and action of public policy.
