Publications

BBVA Research expects Navarra's GDP to grow by 2.0% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027 (Spain: 2.1%). Employment, consumption and fiscal policy will support economic activity, while a recovery in exports will help accelerate growth, despite risks related to industry and energy.

The analysis of regional data in Spain since 2000 reveals a growing divergence in productivity per worker. Regions with the highest demographic and employment growth experience an increase in total GDP but slower growth in GDP per capita, which hinders economic convergence.

Keynote Lecture at the Swiss National Bank for the CEPR European Household Finance Annual Conference. This analysis, based on high-frequency data from Spain, challenges the idea that monetary policy has long lags. It shows that consumption and sales react within days or weeks to monetary shocks.

The Spanish economy will maintain solid growth of 2.6% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, supported by employment, consumption and services. Higher energy costs, inflation and interest rates will weigh on activity, while structural challenges to growth persist.

In August, the unemployment rate stood at 9.4%, up from 8.6% in August 2025, interrupting the year-on-year declines observed month after month over the past two years. Meanwhile, employment fell by 0.5% year-on-year, equivalent to a loss of 126,000 jobs.

Colombia's labor participation dropped from 68% to 64% in the last decade, driven by youth. This stems from two factors: more time spent studying (higher tertiary enrollment) and a smaller population share due to demographic aging. Higher inactivity due to studies boosts future human capital.

We have revised our 2026 growth forecast upward to 1.4% (from 1.2% before); we anticipate that the gradual recovery of domestic demand will sustain the pace of expansion. Following a weak 2025, formal employment is beginning to improve. We expect core inflation to resume its downward trend in the second quarter of the year.