Publications

This Working Paper analyzes the settlement payment for 2023 under the common system of autonomous communities financing, recently published by the Ministry of Finance.

We present an econometric model in order to estimate the global and domestic macroeconomic determinants of portfolio flows into Türkiye. Our findings point to the significant relationship between flows and market volatility and economic policy uncertainty on the global side, and risk premium on the domestic front.

Consumer prices rose by 2.06% m/m, lower than both consensus (2.4%) and our expectation (2.5%), driving annual inflation down to 33.5%. Considering unanchored inflation expectations, high services inertia and upward pressure on the food inflation going forward, we expect the year-end inflation to reach 30%.

The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 51.3% of GDP at the end of 2024. We expect the HBPSBR to be 52.6% at year-end with a public deficit and PSBR of 3.8% and 4.3% of GDP, respectively.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.23% in July 2025, in line with expectations. As a result, year-on-year inflation remained at 1.7% comfortably within the Central Bank's target range. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy also stood at 1.7%.

In July, the Central Bank of Colombia kept the policy rate at 9.25% in a split decision. Although headline inflation eased slightly and economic activity showed more momentum, the Board highlighted the stability of core inflation and inflation expectations, as well as strong domestic demand, justifying a restrictive stance.

Household spending has emerged as Colombia’s main growth engine in 2025, driven by rising income, improving credit, strong remittances, and renewed consumer confidence. Despite early signs of labor market cooling, consumption remains the key economic driver.

The production of liquid hydrocarbons of Pemex in the second quarter of 2025 vs. the previous quarter showed an increment of 15.8 thousand barrels a day mainly due to a higher production of superlight crude oil and condensates by 22.8 thousand barrels a day.