Publications

China's 4% official GDP deficit for 2025 doesn't fully capture its fiscal stance due to a complex budget structure. The Government Funds Budget, reliant on land sales, significantly influences the economy via its total spending. A spending shortfall here signals demand weakness and deflationary risks.

This paper presents a methodological framework to quantify the economic impact of natural disasters. It estimates a damage function and measures employment effects using a dynamic spatial model. The 2024 DANA in Valencia validates the approach and highlights the importance of both location and compensation mechanisms.

The national unemployment rate for August was 8.6%, the lowest for an August since 2001. Seasonally adjusted, the rate was 9%, remaining at low and relatively stable levels since March. This has been driven by a combination of good employment growth and a slower pace of labor supply growth.

The Brazilian economy has been losing momentum, reinforcing deceleration prospects. GDP is expected to slow to 2.2% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, helping inflation ease to 4.8% by end-2025 and 3.7% by end-2026, paving the way for a monetary easing cycle from early 2026.

The Peruvian economy keeps performing solidly, supported by the strength of domestic demand. High terms of trade, the onset of new mining projects, and the recently approved pension funds withdrawal are expected to drive output growth to 3,1 % in both 2025 and 2026, despite the electoral uncertainty.

The Bank of the Republic will maintain stable interest rates through the remainder of 2025, with gradual reductions in the second half of 2026. This cautious approach responds to persistent inflation, strong consumption dynamics, and fiscal risks.

This presentation analyzes the global outlook (recent developments and forecasts), and focuses on the EU and Asia trade and capital flows, as well as the challenges both areas face arising from global changes and the reshaping of the world order.

Cutting military spending after the Cold War helped Europe reduce deficits, ease fiscal pressure and limit the crowding-out effect on private investment — boosting potential growth. The famous peace dividend.