Publications

CPI rose 0.24% m/m in December. As a result, annual inflation closed 2025 at 1.51%, within the Central Bank’s target range and at its lowest level in eight years, reflecting a contained inflation environment.

Spain is entering 2026 with one of the strongest growth trajectories in Europe. After expanding by 3.5% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025, BBVA Research, in its latest forecasts released last December, projects growth of 2.4%.

In the third quarter of 2025, the economy grew by 0.6% compared to the previous quarter. This growth was due to domestic demand, which managed to offset the decline in external demand. During this period, there was a significant increase in employment and a decrease in productivity.

Public administrations have awarded contracts and grants equivalent to 75% of the planned investments financed with transfers from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (3.6% of GDP). However, the pace of implementation has slowed, and it will need to be accelerated to meet the planned deadlines and objectives.

The Colombian electricity system stands out for its renewable matrix, high coverage, and regional resilience. Demand is growing steadily and supply is gradually advancing, in a context where diversification of sources and thermal backup will be key to maintaining reliability.

Despite slightly higher growth and inflation forecasts, Lagarde struck a cautious tone, stressing high uncertainty and avoiding forward guidance. The ECB is watching services inflation and wages and starting to assess AI’s impact. Barring surprises, a prolonged pause with the deposit rate at 2% through 2027 looks likely.

International trade continues to perform solidly despite rising protectionism. While U.S. tariffs have moderated following recent agreements and exemptions, they remain elevated and global trade imbalances persist. This points to short-term resilience, but with meaningful risks of greater fragmentation over the medium term.