Publications

With the start of the easing from the CBRT since mid-June, banks’ interest margins improve; while credit growth trend stays closer to inflation. Cumulative RoE of deposit banks remained almost the same at 24% as of June, compared to 2024 end.

The economy grew 2.8% year-on-year in 2Q, driven by the expansion of domestic demand (+6%). On the fiscal front, the deficit narrowed to 2.6% of GDP due to higher revenues, while public debt stood at 31.8% of GDP. Externally, the current account posted a surplus of 1.9% of GDP.

The United States faces global uncertainty in terms of trade policy, with forecasts of inflation and interest rate cuts. At the same time, the Colombian economy is recovering, with consumption driving the recovery. Unemployment rates are low and informality is on the rise.

The BBVA Research Multidimensional Manufacturing Indicator grew 1.2% YoY in July, 0.9 pp above the figure registered the previous month (0.3% YoY); considering the July data, the year-over-year variation of the BBVA Research MMI reaches an average of (-)0.2% in the first seven months of the year (vs -1.5% in 2024).

Formal employment reached a record high in July 2025 due to the incorporation of digital platform workers. Excluding this effect, there was a net destruction of jobs, in a context of declining investment and weak consumption.

GDP grew 4.5% year-on-year in June, below the market consensus (4.8%) but higher than in the previous two months. The primary component rebounded, and the non-primary component grew by over 3.0%.

July U.S. labor data show sharp hiring slowdown: 73k jobs added, prior months revised -258k, jobless rate at 4.2%, participation at 62.2%. Wage growth stagnates; health care sole driver. Market sees 89% odds of Fed rate cut in September.

In its August meeting, the Central Bank's Board of Directors held its benchmark interest rate at 4.50%. In real terms, the rate stood at 2.31% , a level consistent with a neutral monetary position.