Publications

The Bank of the Republic maintained the policy rate at 9.25% in June, with a divided decision. While inflation showed a marginal reduction and growth continues a gradual recovery, they emphasized the larger estimated fiscal deficit and its effect on the economy and the Bank's interest rate profile.

Oil prices have experienced high volatility this year. Lower global demand and increased supply from OPEC+ have driven a bearish trend, which was recently interrupted by tensions between Israel and Iran. The outlook remains uncertain, especially concerning a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

We identify the main drivers of key financial market asset price dynamics, including the Euro-dollar exchange rate and the Bund-US Treasury yield spread, using a sign-restricted SVAR model. The model also facilitates the extraction of a high frequency global macro-financial conditions indicator.

Four years after the last labour reform, the rate of temporary employment in the Spanish labour market has unquestionably fallen. Yet, there is still a high rate of labor turnover and fairly heavy transitions from employment to unemployment.

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported 1.4% growth in May, driven by spending on goods during the Hot Sale (1.7% MoM).

The CBRT kept the policy rate (one-week repo, 46%) and the width of the interest rate corridor (44.5%-49%) the same, surprising the market expectation of a cut in the upper bound of the corridor.

Despite trade tensions, Peru’s economy is expected to grow by 3,1% this year, supported by record-high terms of trade, improved business confidence, and the construction of new copper mines. Output growth is expected to slow somewhat in 2026, to around 2,7%, mainly due to increased electoral uncertainty.

In April, the economy grew by 1.4% due to a negative base effect. Mining drove primary activities, while fishing and agriculture declined. The non-primary component rose by 1.7%, with gains in trade and services, and declines in construction and manufacturing.