Macroeconomics latest publications
Labor dynamics that began in May continued in June, at a slower pace, especially in the cities. The increase in labor supply seemed to moderate in June and less dynamism of employment (labor demand) was observed. The number of unemployed increased in June.
Public expenditure in Spain could grow between 10 and 11 percentage points (pp) of GDP in 2020, surpassing 52% of GDP, according to BBVA Research forecasts. This increase is justified by the atypical situation that the Spanish economy is experiencing due to COVID-19.
Strong impact of the Hot Sale in the last week of July, especially in "non-essential" items. Fuel and Construction sales showed slight signs of an incipient recovery that needs more data to start setting a trend. The lockdown period has started to set new behaviors.
Today’s labor market report once again showed that the economy is on the mend. However, this environment creates more complexity for Congress, as it supports arguments from both sides of the aisle. That said, Fed officials will continue to take additional steps as it transitions from “stabilization” to “accommodation”.
The significantly better-than-expected export growth boosted by coronavirus-related product shipments, together with a volume expansion while total value dipping import growth helped to maintain the growth momentum extending in 2H 2020.
At the beginning of August, the card-consumption indicator remains positive, sustained by spending on home goods and services.
The economic challenges for President Duque's remaining term are great and urgent, given the need to provide welfare for those who have lost their jobs and sources of income to the virus. Although the Government has acted swiftly to reach the most vulnerable, recovery measures need to be expedited.
The economic situation that the world is facing is different from what we have experienced in the last 70 years. In this crisis, the Colombian financial system entered with strong capital and liquidity positions, which has allowed it to absorb the shock and serve as an instrument for the implementation of public policies.