Publications

Brazil’s economy is slowing: growth is expected to reach 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. Supply-side pressures will push inflation higher, but weak demand will likely allow for further Selic rate cuts. The post-election political landscape will shape the outlook and the balance of risks.

Extremadura is expected to maintain solid growth of close to 2% in 2026-2027, supported by consumption, investment and job creation, with relatively favourable GDP per capita performance. A worsening external backdrop, weak exports and agricultural activity, and structural bottlenecks will weigh on the outlook.

Tighter global financial conditions and persistent inflation pressures require a prudent policy mix. We expect monetary policy to stay restrictive, with historically high real rates and continued macroprudential measures, while fiscal and credit support is likely to be selective.

The Chinese economy slowed to 4.3% in Q2 2026 due to domestic risks such as a supply-demand mismatch, weak consumption, and a housing crisis. The GDP growth forecast is maintained at 4.5% for 2026 and 4.2% for 2027, and the CPI forecast is lowered to 0.8%.

Global defense demand is structural, driven by tensions, rising budgets and new warfare. Europe faces gaps in air defense, drones, long-range fires and ammunition, while Türkiye can complement it through co-production and supply-chain partnerships. Future competitiveness will depend on AI, autonomy, cyber and space.

Colombia’s economy will grow 2.6% in 2026, ease to 2.3% in 2027, and rebound to 3.1% in 2028. The 2027 slowdown will be temporary as growth shifts from public to private-sector support, which will strengthen in 2028. Fiscal imbalances and inflation remain the key challenges ahead.

The BBVA Research Multidimensional Manufacturing Indicator (IMM BBVA Research) grew 3.2% YoY in August, broadly unchanged from the 1H26 average (3.1%).