Publications

Global climate governance has moved from framework-building to delivery. Despite progress, implementation and ambition remain off track for Paris. COP31 should therefore be judged by whether commitments translate into measurable, financed, accountable and climate-consistent action.

Peru's Big Data Private Consumption Index showed a year-on-year growth of 10.2% in August, the highest rate in three months. This evolution occurs in a context of high inflation but is supported by improving consumer confidence, a strong labor market, and the advancement of spending digitalization.

The Spanish economy is growing above the Eurozone average, driven by domestic demand and employment. However, it faces crucial challenges such as stagnant productivity and weak investment, which limit the increase in added value and long-term well-being.

Consumer price inflation came in at 1.84 % m/m in Aug26, slightly below our expectation and the consensus (1.95% m/m), lowering annual inflation to 31.5%. We maintain our year-end inflation forecast at 30% keeping in mind the volatility in energy prices, uncertainties in supply chains, and unanchored inflation expectations.

Middle East tensions have triggered high oil market volatility. The closing of the Strait of Hormuz created upward price pressure, but global reserves limited the impact to 4%. Uncertainty remains, with price scenarios dependent on the conflict's evolution and US political factors.

Inflation in Peru stood at 0.07% month-on-month in August, raising the year-on-year rate to 4.4%. This increase is due to the readjustment of electricity tariffs and the rise in fuel prices. Core inflation moderated to 4.5%, but remains above the target range. Inflation is expected to remain high in the coming months.

The Turkish economy grew by 2.3% y/y in 2Q26, below both our expectation (3%) and market consensus (2.9%), bringing growth in 1H26 to 2.5% y/y. Assuming a prudent policy mix going forward and no further escalation in geopolitical tensions, we maintain our 3.0% GDP growth forecast for 2026 with limited downside risks now.