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The COVID-19 pandemic hit Argentina's economy hard, which is in its third consecutive year of recession. With the second wave of contagion in sight, the government is negotiating a new program with the IMF that could be crucial for the country's sustainable growth.
Household savings increased significantly during the second quarter of 2020, reaching 24.4% of gross disposable income. That is more than double the previous high seen in 2009. There are several reasons for this.
It's difficult to talk about economic recovery right now. Health indicators continue to show a worrying deterioration. Thousands of small and medium-sized enterprises are worried about the negative effect that fear of infection and the restrictions imposed to reduce it are having on their turnover.
On December 30, the EU and China reached an agreement to expand mutual investment opportunities, pending approval by the European Parliament in the second half of 2021.
Economic recovery, output cuts, and progress on Covid-19 vaccination have boosted oil prices. OECD inventories are receding from above-average levels, implying a tighter market.
Although GDP per capita is a good aggregate indicator of market activities (with some limitations due to digital disruption), a broader range of indicators than those traditionally used, such as GDP, is required to measure welfare and the progress of societies.
A smaller contraction in GDP is expected in 2020 (-11%), due to upward surprises in all components of demand, especially domestic demand. The improvement in foreign tourism in the second part of 2021 will allow for further growth in the island communities. In 2022, the boost from European funds will favor the economy.
Economic recovery stalling after holiday surge in Covid-19 cases. Vaccine rollout falling short of expectations. High frequency indicators confirm need of further stimulus. Risks of widening inequality from long-term pandemic scarring.