Publications

Inflation in June continued its upward trend, reaching 6.14% year-on-year, in line with BBVA Research expectations, representing an increase of 30 bps compared to May and 104 bps relative to the end of last year.

U.S. tariffs reduced imports by 2% for every point of increase. However, global trade remained resilient as Chinese products were replaced by goods from Asian economies and Mexico, reconfiguring supply chains without managing to reduce the trade deficit.

Social Security affiliation grew by 128,500 people and unemployment fell by 28,700. Adjusted for seasonal factors, job creation is estimated to have accelerated to 80,000 contributors and the number of unemployed fell by 2,700. In 2Q26, employment advanced by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter SA and unemployment decreased by 1.2%.

The productivity debate requires distinguishing between output per worker, output per hour, and total factor productivity. Confusing these metrics can lead to inaccurate interpretations regarding the convergence of Europe or Spain with the United States.

The national unemployment rate declined to 8.0%, reaching historic lows, while employment growth accelerated to 4.0% year-on-year, driven primarily by the public administration, education and health sector.

Castile and Leon will maintain solid growth, hovering around 2% over the two-year period. This is supported by the recovery of exports, private consumption, and a strong labor market, though it faces greater risks stemming from the international environment.

Banco de la República raised its policy rate by 75 basis points to 12.0%. The decision was split, with four Board members voting in favor of the increase, two supporting a 50-basis-point rate cut, and one voting to keep the policy rate unchanged