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Average Social Security affiliation increased by 97,500 people (-4.6% YoY) in May, but unemployment rose by 26,600 (25.3% YoY). Seasonally adjusted, employment fell by 77,000 people and unemployment increased by 104,000. The estimated impact of the crisis since March is around 1,290,000 affiliates and 840,000 unemployed.
The draft for the European fiscal stimulus laid out last week by the European Commission—which builds on the recent Franco-German proposal to establish a Recovery Fund—has two interpretations and both are positive.
In May, Lima's Consumer Price Index rose 0.20% m/m, above market expectations (Bloomberg Consensus: +0.04%). With May's monthly result, year-on-year inflation accelerated slightly to 1.8%YoY, from 1.7%YoY the previous month.
Observing the evolution of the economy in real time and in high definition is essential to assess the economic impact of an almost unprecedented event in the global economy such as the current COVID-19 crisis.
May 29, 2020
Peru | Measures to contain the spread of COVID-19 significantly affected output in 1Q20
GDP strongly contracted in the first quarter, reflecting the measures implemented since mid-March by the Government in order to contain the spread of the new coronavirus.
Turkish Economy grew by 4.5% yoy in 1Q20, lower than expectations (5.5% Our vs. 4.9% Bloomberg). Seasonally and cal. adj. quarterly growth also decelerated to 0.6% from the previous 1.9% in 4Q19. We still maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0% for 2020, assuming a partial gradual recovery pattern in the rest of the year.
During the first weeks of April, confinement reduced weekly card spending by about -60% year-on-year. The progressive advance in lifting lockdown restrictions has mitigated this contraction to -47% in the week of 4-10th of May, -37% in the week of 11-17th of May and -22% in the week of 18-24th of May.
Lower tax revenue would lead to a higher primary deficit (ceteris paribus). To meet the primary deficit target of 0.4% of GDP for 2020 under the aforementioned contraction range, the federal government would need to cut down public expenditure by MXN 209 billion and MXN 418 billion in 2020, respectively.