Publications

The economy of Extremadura maintains solid growth backed by job creation in public services, domestic consumption, and tourist arrivals. The agrifood sector faces challenges due to drops in exports of processed goods, geopolitical pressures, and productivity stagnation.

The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 52.7% of GDP at the end of 2025 vs. 50.4% in March 2026. We expect the HBPSBR to be around 53.7% by year-end.

Social Security affiliation increased by 223,700 people and unemployment fell by 62,700. Adjusting for seasonal factors, job creation is estimated to have reached 56,000 contributors, while unemployment decreased by 17,000. No effects from the extraordinary regularization process are yet visible in labor market records.

Lima's CPI rose 0.52% m/m in April, above the Bloomberg consensus (0.20%) but moderating from March's 2.38%. Annual inflation reached 4.01%, exceeding 4% for the first time since October 2023, driven by the persistent pass-through of the energy shock to transport costs.

The ECB kept interest rates unchanged due to the worsening situation in the Middle East. The institution has adopted a wait-and-see stance and plans to gather new data through June before making decisions.

Labor participation has rebounded since 2020, driven by cyclical factors, immigration, and higher educational levels. However, this improvement is temporary and masks the structural trend resulting from population aging.

En decisión unánime, BanRep mantuvo inalterada la tasa de interés de política monetaria en 11,25% en abril. Observan amplia incertidumbre en el entorno externo que les permite tomar una pausa para evaluar la evolución de diversos indicadores.