October 30, 2020
Macroeconomics latest publications
Economic activity regained ground in 3Q20 (12.0% QoQ, 57.4% at an annualized rate) after the reopening of activities that began in early June. With the momentum of the third quarter, the industry reaches 90.4% of its pre-COVID level, while the services sector 91.1%.
The advance of the GDP in Q3 (16.7% t/t; -8.7% y/y) exceeded expectations thanks, above all, to positive surprises in investment. Although domestic demand explained most of the growth (-16.1pp t/t; -4.2pp a/a), external demand also added up. The improvement in the hours worked was intense and productivity fell.
October 29, 2020
U.S.| 3Q20 GDP:Strong policy support drives historic rebound in GDP,but headwinds emerging
The U.S. economy showed astounding resiliency in the 3Q20. Strong monetary, fiscal and administrative support from the federal government, less restrictive lockdown measures and stronger impetus to end distancing measures contributed to the rebound.
Colombia is already in the process of recovery. Low interest rates and government policies will help reactivate private demand. The fiscal effort should focus on the activities with the most impulse over the others.
October 29, 2020
Peru | Real-time analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on consumption (up to October 26)
In October, total card consumption grew 17,0% compared to the same month in 2019 (10,2% in September), consistent with the beginning of Phase 4 of the economic reactivation (started on October 1st).
The recovery in consumption slowed down in the third week of October, due to a slowdown in the consumption of goods, but recovered 1.5 pp with respect to the September record. At a regional level, Barranquilla's recovery stands out, after being for several months the city that lagged the most.
The economy of the Basque Country may shrink by 10.5% this year, and grow 5.8% in 2021, losing 22,000 jobs. The impact of the crisis was heterogeneous during the first semester, as it is the recovery. Public policies allow to lower job losses, but risks push the perspectives downward.
Recently, the COVID-19 crisis has highlighted how the Spanish pension system's financial sustainability problems are worsening. The Ministry of Social Security is predicting a GDP deficit of 4.1% for 2020.