Macroeconomics latest publications
A model, based on Camacho and Domenech (2012) and Aruoba and Diebold (2010), which are extensions of Stock and Watson (1991), was built to forecast Colombia's GDP in real time. Going forward, BBVA Research will continue to publish updates of the monthly results of this work.
The challenging context that Colombia is facing due to the higher peak of contagions, the hard economic conditions and the slow recovery of employment, pose a challenge for all of us. This must be faced with hope in order to quickly reach a consensus that will sustain social spending and propel us back to recovery.
The Central Bank of Turkey kept the policy rate at 19% in line with the expectations. Given the worsened inflation expectations, the CBRT repeated the need to decisively keep the current “tight” monetary policy stance. Thus we expect an easing cycle only very gradually in late 3Q and end the year with 16% policy rate.
Total consumption rebounded after the drop at the end of May, although YoY growth is still negative. The level of spending so far in June is below that of the same period in 2020. Our indicators forecast a weak second quarter due to mobility restrictions.
The GDP of the Balearic Islands would have fallen by 18.0% in 2020 and is expected to increase by 8.0% in 2021 and 11.6% in 2022. The economy in 2021 will go from less to more with the improvement of the international environment, European funds, the progress of vaccination and the relaxation of restrictions.
Output grew 58.5% YoY in April, lower than expected by the market consensus (60%). This result hides a low year-on-year comparison base due isolation measures were in force in April 2020.
After having seemingly vanished as a source of concern for many years, the fear of inflation has re-emerged, along with the first green shoots of recovery.
Consumption improves its dynamics so far in June and is 13.2% above that recorded in the same period in 2019. Services show an important rebound and are once again above their pre-pandemic level, while consumption of goods slows down.