Publications

Latin America faces external headwinds, including less favorable global financial conditions and volatility stemming from global geopolitical tensions, compounded by the El Niño phenomenon. Despite these challenges, the region is expected to maintain steady growth of around 2.1% in 2027.

Tourism spending in Spain is driven by foreign demand, which grew 8.8% year-on-year between May and August 2026. This dynamism offset the slowdown in domestic tourism, where spending increased by only 2.5%. Total spending grew by 5.7%, exceeding the pace between January and April 2026.

The analysis of regional data in Spain since 2000 reveals a growing divergence in productivity per worker. Regions with the highest demographic and employment growth experience an increase in total GDP but slower growth in GDP per capita, which hinders economic convergence.

Peru's economic activity grew 3.2% year-on-year in August, led by non-primary sectors (+4.3%), such as construction and commerce. In contrast, primary sectors contracted by 1.2%, affected by the decline in fishing and mining. Between January and August, GDP accumulated an expansion of 3.1%.

Formal employment in Mexico shows a gradual recovery. IMSS data indicate that job creation in September surpassed the previous year, although the pace remains moderate and uneven across sectors. Improved private and public investment is key to strengthening future labor market outlooks.

Headline inflation increased by 0.6 percentage points, to 4.9% year-on-year in September. Core inflation rose slightly, to 3.1%. For October, BBVA Research forecasts headline inflation of 4.8%, while core inflation would remain around 3.1%.

Inflation in Argentina was 1.9% MoM in September (33.4% YoY), accelerating with respect to August due to food prices. Core inflation fell to 1.7% MoM, a positive signal for the disinflation process, which remains stickier than expected.