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Consumer prices rose by 3.28% m/m in Nov, lower than both our expectation (4.0%) and cons. (3.7%), while annual inflation accelerated to 61.98% (vs. 61.36% prev.). Considering the recent lower than expected realizations coupled with the positively surprising rate hikes, the year-end consumer inflation might be around 65%.
Social Security affiliation fell by 11,600 people and unemployment by 24,600. After adjusting for seasonality, we estimate that the number of affiliated workers grew by 25,000 (2,500 more than in Oct) and the number of unemployed fell by 16,000, after stagnating since July. Temporary employment fell by 1.1 pp to 56.7% SWDA.
The eurozone economy has been virtually stagnant for several quarters now, underperforming expectations so far in the year's second half and with no clear signs of recovery on the horizon.
The October 2023 national unemployment rate was 9.2%, down from 9.7% in October 2022, and the urban unemployment rate was 9.0%, down from 9.9% a year earlier. Seasonally adjusted, the national rate increased by 0.3 p.p. between September and Oc…
The slowdown of the economy is supported by a strong contraction of investment over the already weak levels reported in recent years, which is one of the main challenges for the future of the Colombian economy.
The consumer price index dropped 0.16% m/m in November. During the month, the decrease in some food prices stood out, due to supply shocks they faced in recent months starting to dissipate.
Turkish economy grew by 5.9% y/y in 3Q, above the market consensus of 5.3% but parallel to our expectation of 6%. We expect GDP growth rate to be 4.5% in 2023 but decelerate to 3.5% in 2024 with a bias to the downside.
Spain's GDP growth forecast is maintained for 2023 (2.4%), revised downwards to 1.5% in 2024 and is expected to accelerate in 2025 (2.5%). The growth bias is negative due to the geopolitical context and uncertainty in EMU activity and economic …
Inflation surprised to the downside across major economies in October. Besides a favorable base effect and lower energy, reassuringly, services inflation is beginning to ease as well, in both, the US and the eurozone. Meanwhile, bottlenecks see…
To allow the country to maximize the economic benefits of nearshoring in the medium term, the next federal government could formulate a national infrastructure plan and favor an industrial policy that enhances investment in renewable energy, el…
The latest Observatory published by BBVA Research, FEDEA and the Sagardoy Foundation shows a labor market in transition in Spain. Job creation continues, but at a significantly slower pace than in the first half of the year.
Private consumption balance between goods and services changed due to pandemic spending patterns, the subsequent recovery and the current slowdown. In addition, the new momentum of goods consumption since 2024 and the role of government spending are expected to change, again, the composition of household spending.
