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GDP growth forecasts have been revised upwards by 0.4 percentage points for 2024 to reach 2.9%, and by 0.3 pp for 2025 to reach 2.4%. This is due to statistical revisions of historical data, recent developments more favorable than expected, and improved estimates of external and internal demand contributions.
In its October meeting, the Board of the Central Bank decided to maintain the policy rate at 5.25%, surprising the consensus that had anticipated a further 25-basis-point cut. The monetary policy stance, understood as the ex-ante real reference rate, remains contractionary.
Domestic demand is driving Colombia's economic recovery, with GDP projected to grow by 2.0% in 2024 and up to 3.5% by 2026. Investment and consumption, particularly in durable goods, will fuel growth, while inflation and interest rates continue…
The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported growth of 1.5% MoM in September, 0.7 pp below the figure recorded in August
In September, monthly inflation was 0.24% and annual inflation was 5.81%, close to market analysts' expectations, according to Banco de la República's survey (0.27%). With this, the result is 31 bps below the previous month's figure.
This Working Paper contains homogenized series of regional funding (constructed on the basis of homogeneous competences and equal fiscal effort) from 2002 to 2022.
Despite uncertainty and high interest rates, investment remains strong in countries like the U.S. and France, especially in intellectual property and ICT, but not in Spain, Canada, and most emerging markets. GDP growth remains key, but digitalization and climate transition policies will drive future investment.
Looking at the performance of the global economy, it is striking to see the difference between the relative success of central banks and policymakers in achieving a soft landing for both growth and inflation, and the immense uncertainty resulti…
Immigration has been a key factor supporting the growth of the Spanish economy in the wake of the pandemic. The labor market, economic and social integration, and training of immigrants all require priority attention from policymakers.
Restrictive monetary policy and tight financial conditions lead output gap to turn into negative in 3Q24. Fiscal consolidation is projected for 2025, which could provide room for a gradual monetary easing. Overall, the policy mix will become mo…
While many economic policy decisions are made with the best intentions in mind, things do not always go as planned. Numerous examples of this can be found in the real estate market.
Growth and inflation moderate; we estimate that a continuous cycle of rate cuts has begun. We revised downward the economic growth forecast for 2024 and 2025 given the weakening of domestic demand.
