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Macroeconomics

Macroeconomics latest publications

February 28, 2020

Colombia | Lights and shadows of the tax reform

Last week I was in Cali participating in a panel about growth law or tax reform approved at the end last year in the seminary of ANIF-Fedesarrollo for which I did a reading and organizing the big topics.

February 28, 2020

Turkey | The economy grew by 0.9% in 2019

Turkish Economy grew by 6% yoy in 4Q19, leading the whole year GDP growth to be realized at 0.9%, beating the consensus but parallel to our initial forecast of 0.8%. We remain prudent and maintain our GDP growth forecast at 4% for 2020.

February 27, 2020

Mexico | Automotive sector: challenges and opportunities

In the last 25 years, the Mexican automotive sector has been a success story. The sector (which includes auto parts) is of great importance for the Mexican economy.

February 26, 2020

Mexico | Economic stagnation in 2019 affects current account and net FDI

Our forecast of 2.0% of GDP for the current account deficit implies that Mexico will enter a phase of economic recovery after a real GDP contraction of 0.1% in 2019. This forecast suggests that the country is not vulnerable to external shocks and that a share of the current account deficit could be financed with net FDI.

February 26, 2020

The impact of COVID-19 outbreak on China’s External Balance

Our results based on the foreign reserve decomposition method and the forecasting practice show that the impact of COVID-19 on China, although very large on Q1 and Q2 economic growth, will be quite limited on China’s Balance of Payments, especially the foreign reserve.

February 26, 2020

Spain | Regional convergence elusive in the recovery

Regional convergence has been slow during the recovery. Lower income regions are creating employment at high rates but their low productivity growth is a burden. Attracting investment, reducing employment procyclicality and policies aimed at improving demographic dynamics would boost convergence.

February 25, 2020

Economic Agenda 2020 Mexico - United States

This Agenda presents the diffusion calendar for 2020 of economic indicators and relevant monetary policy events of Mexico and the United States; dates of important events such as the meetings of various relevant international entities such as: World Economic Forum, World Bank and International Monetary Fund.

February 24, 2020

Europe Caught Off-Balance

The eurozone slowed somewhat more than expected in Q4 of last year, with growth shrinking to 0.1% in the quarter. Looking at individual countries, the biggest surprises were the contraction in activity in Italy (-0.3% QoQ) and France (-0.1% QoQ) and the stagnation of the German economy.