Macroeconomics latest publications
Last week I was in Cali participating in a panel about growth law or tax reform approved at the end last year in the seminary of ANIF-Fedesarrollo for which I did a reading and organizing the big topics.
Turkish Economy grew by 6% yoy in 4Q19, leading the whole year GDP growth to be realized at 0.9%, beating the consensus but parallel to our initial forecast of 0.8%. We remain prudent and maintain our GDP growth forecast at 4% for 2020.
In the last 25 years, the Mexican automotive sector has been a success story. The sector (which includes auto parts) is of great importance for the Mexican economy.
Our forecast of 2.0% of GDP for the current account deficit implies that Mexico will enter a phase of economic recovery after a real GDP contraction of 0.1% in 2019. This forecast suggests that the country is not vulnerable to external shocks and that a share of the current account deficit could be financed with net FDI.
Our results based on the foreign reserve decomposition method and the forecasting practice show that the impact of COVID-19 on China, although very large on Q1 and Q2 economic growth, will be quite limited on China’s Balance of Payments, especially the foreign reserve.
Regional convergence has been slow during the recovery. Lower income regions are creating employment at high rates but their low productivity growth is a burden. Attracting investment, reducing employment procyclicality and policies aimed at improving demographic dynamics would boost convergence.
This Agenda presents the diffusion calendar for 2020 of economic indicators and relevant monetary policy events of Mexico and the United States; dates of important events such as the meetings of various relevant international entities such as: World Economic Forum, World Bank and International Monetary Fund.
The eurozone slowed somewhat more than expected in Q4 of last year, with growth shrinking to 0.1% in the quarter. Looking at individual countries, the biggest surprises were the contraction in activity in Italy (-0.3% QoQ) and France (-0.1% QoQ) and the stagnation of the German economy.