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May 19, 2025
The observatory analyzes the cyclical behavior of GDP and exports in Spain up to the first quarter of 2025, highlighting a negative gap in GDP per working age population (WAP) compared to its trend level (-0.9 pp), although its growth slightly exceeds the historical trend.
May 16, 2025
Hard data confirms a robust quarterly GDP growth in 1Q25, similar to the previous quarter (1.7% q/q in 4Q24), driven primarily by domestic demand. Leading indicators signal a broad-based weakening in activity for 2Q25. We maintain our 2025 GDP growth forecast of 3.5% with risks becoming tilted to downside.
May 15, 2025
Colombia’s economy grew 2.7% y/y in Q1 2025, led by household consumption. Investment weakened and sectors showed mixed results. Growth is projected at around 2.5% in 2025, with resilient domestic demand but ongoing challenges in investment and the external environment.
May 15, 2025
In March 2025, GDP grew by 4.7% year-on-year. The primary component expanded by 4.9%, driven by the fishing and construction sectors. The non-primary component rose by 4.3%, supported by non-primary manufacturing, construction, and some service segments.
May 14, 2025
April national inflation was 2.8% m/m (47.3% y/y), placing it below expectations (REM-BCRA: 3.2% m/m, BBVA Research: 3.4%) as a result of a more virtuous exchange rate dynamics -post easing of restrictions- than initially expected.
May 14, 2025
The pig farming sector in Colombia has grown 171% over the last two decades, with improvements in productivity, technification, and health standards. The increasing trend in domestic pork demand represents an opportunity for sector development.
May 14, 2025
Economic growth will continue to support the dynamism of the real estate sector in the coming months. The decline in interest rates, the strength of the labor market, and positive net migration will sustain strong demand in 2025, although it is expected to decelerate in 2026 as a result of slower economic growth.
May 12, 2025
The slowdown in formal employment in Mexico deepened in April, driven primarily by declining investment and growing business distrust. The contraction in key economic sectors and economic uncertainty point to weak job creation throughout the year.
May 12, 2025
Spain has led EU growth since the start of the war in Ukraine. However, weak growth in Europe, persistent geopolitical tensions, and erratic U.S. trade policy overshadow the outlook.
May 12, 2025
As we draw closer to 2026—the last year for Spain to mobilize its funding under the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan (RRRP)—now would be a good time to take stock of the progress made, while also examining the constraints that still prevent Spain from unlocking the full transformative potential of this funding.
May 9, 2025
National employment grows, mainly driven by non-wage employment (+8% annually in March). Of 1.1M jobs created, most are independent and informal, raising the informality rate to 57.2%. The challenge is to formalize this employment to improve conditions and reduce poverty.
