Publications

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator fell 0.4% MoM in July, posting a 4.5% YoY contraction. The weakness in spending was driven by a decline in goods consumption (-1.9% MoM), while services spending increased 1.1% MoM.

Peru's economic activity grew 1.8% year-on-year in June, moderating from the previous month. This slowdown was due to the contraction of primary sectors (-7.2%) because of climate anomalies and lower production. In contrast, non-primary sectors, driven by domestic demand, grew by 4.2%.

The Central Reserve Bank of Peru decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.25% for the eleventh consecutive month. Although inflation is expected to return to the 2% target range, there are warnings of risks such as the El Niño phenomenon and geopolitical tensions that could generate more persistent effects.

Formal employment in Mexico posted a monthly contraction of 0.05% in July. Annual growth slowed to 1.5%, and to 1.0% excluding digital platform workers. This dynamic is attributed to weak investment and low business confidence, despite an acceleration in real wages.

Energy drove inflation in July. The headline rate rose by 0.4 pp, to 3.6% YoY, and the core rate by 0.1 pp, to 3.0%, both in line with expectations. For August, headline inflation is estimated to rebound to a range of 4.1% to 4.3%, with energy as the main upward pressure.

Annual inflation declined to 6.03% in July, after four consecutive months of increases. As a result, it decreased by 11 bps compared to June, although it remains 93 bps above the level observed at the end of last year.

Consumption in Peru grew 8.9% year-on-year in July. This advance is supported by a strong labor market and credit, despite inflation. Spending digitalization continues to rise, with intensive use of cards and online channels.