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At this stage, the Board will likely refocus on the risks associated with the persistence of core inflation—particularly in services—and on the temporary inflation shock expected in early 2026, despite the significant weakness of the economy and the strength of the MXN.

In October 2025, remittances increased 24.0% to Honduras, 19.5% to Guatemala, 16.3% to El Salvador, and 5.4% to Colombia; while in September they grew 11.9% to the Dominican Republic.

We think the room to continue easing is unlikely to have been materially affected by the Fed’s more cautious tone from last week, as some Board members have indicated that a narrowing rate spread is not a binding constraint.

Remittances to Mexico fell 2.7% in September, marking their sixth consecutive month of decline. A total of 13.2 million remittance transactions were reported (-4.7% year-on-year), while the average remittance was 396 dollar (+2.1%).

The Board noted that “economic activity exhibited sluggishness at the beginning of the third quarter of 2025,” in line with the July’s IGAE print released yesterday, which showed a broad-based 0.9% m/m contraction across all major sectors.

We expect Banxico to deliver a 25bp rate cut and to signal that the easing cycle still has room to continue. We think further easing toward at least the midpoint neutral rate estimate remains warranted amid a weak demand outlook.

The absence of new language suggesting increased caution—despite recent core inflation stickiness—indicates that most members remain open to continuing the easing cycle, albeit at the current more gradual pace of 25 bps per meeting.