Mexico | Remittances Rise for 3 Consecutive Months, Despite Adversity

Summary

The Banco de México updated the remittance data received by the country in 2024-2026. The largest adjustment was made for 2025, with an increase of USD 695 million. The correlation coefficients of remittances to Mexico were analyzed in relation to 6 major remittance-receiving countries in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Key points

• Key points:
• The Banco de México corrected the data for remittances received in the country, making an upward adjustment of USD 695 million for 2025. Consequently, the contraction of remittances was less severe than initially estimated, moving from -4.6% to -3.9% at an annual rate.
• In April 2026, remittances to Mexico grew by 3.7%, marking three consecutive months of gains. Considering the revisions by the Banco de México and the performance observed during the first four months of the year, BBVA Research estimates that remittances could close 2026 with growth close to 2%.
• During the month of April 2026, remittances to other countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) grew by an average of 6.8% at an annual rate. Remittances to Honduras increased by 12.4%, to the Dominican Republic by +11.1%, and to Guatemala by +7.9%.
• During the 2021-2024 period, corresponding to the Biden administration, remittances to Mexico were moderately correlated with those of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras, with correlation coefficients between 0.507 and 0.583. None of the remittance flows from the analyzed LAC countries registered a high correlation with those of Mexico.
• Since the beginning of 2025, remittances to Mexico have stopped following the trend observed in other LAC countries, recording low or negative correlation coefficients. While those countries have experienced significant growth in remittance receipts, Mexico has recorded a contraction in these flows.

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