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The policy statement does not reveal how strongly Board members are committed to an extended pause, leaving the upcoming minutes as the key source to assess the strength of that consensus.

We expect Banxico to keep the policy rate unchanged at 6.50% this week and to reiterate its message that the current stance will remain in place for an extended period as it continues to monitor services inflation.

Looking further ahead, as core inflation converges toward 3.5% in 2027 and the Fed potentially resumes easing, Banxico could consider additional rate cuts, bringing the policy rate closer to 6.0%.

We expect Banxico to wrap up the easing cycle this week with a 25bp rate cut, taking the rate to 6.50%, followed by a prolonged pause lasting at least through the rest of the year; the Board will likely convey that it will take some time to assess the cumulative effects of the easing cycle.

In 2025, there were 160,000 deportations of Mexican migrants, a figure 22.3% lower than the 206,000 events recorded in 2024, and 25.4% below the 215,000 deportations in 2023. Remittances to Mexico posted a slight increase in February, edging up 0.4% to reach 4,468 million.

Looking ahead, we think the timing of the final rate cut will depend on external conditions. Under our baseline of a short-lived conflict, and with Banxico’s test for second-round effects from this year’s fiscal changes now met, most Board members may prefer to wrap up the easing cycle and deliver a final 25bp cut in May.

Remittances to Mexico began 2026 with decline. In January, they totaled 4,594 million dollars, representing a 1.4% year-on-year decrease. Although the average amount per transfer increased to $401 (+3.9%), the number of transactions fell to 11.5 million, a 5.2% year-on-year decrease.