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May 16, 2025
A key indication that Banxico's primary concern has shifted from inflation to growth is its acknowledgment, for the first time, that “since the inflationary episode has been left behind,” the fight against inflation is at a new stage.
May 13, 2025
In contrast to the Fed, who held rates unchanged last week, Banxico has room to continue cutting rates. A low exchange rate pass-through and deeper domestic capital markets grant Banxico greater policy independence from the Fed than in the past.
May 2, 2025
Over the past five years, from December 2019 to March 2025, the employed population in the United States grew by 4.7 million, of which 92.4% (4.3 million) were of Hispanic or Latino origin, reflecting the great importance of this population in the current economy of that country.
April 1, 2025
In February 2025, 4,459 million in family remittances arrived in Mexico. Remittances have accumulated a 16-month streak of uncertainty since November 2023, with seven months of contractions, interspersed with months of low growth and other months with increases greater than 8% at an annual rate.
March 28, 2025
Its confidence in delivering a third big rate cut to keep removing the still very restrictive monetary policy stance as fast as possible will be contingent upon the peso’s orderly trading conditions and the absence of a marked depreciation.
March 25, 2025
Banxico could keep the door open to a third 50bp cut in May before slowing down to more cautious 25bp adjustments. This would strengthen our expectation that Banxico will bring down the policy rate to a below-consensus 7.5% by the end of this year.
February 6, 2025
It unequivocally signaled that it remains set to keep cutting rates steadily ahead and hinted that in the absence of any major events, it is likely to consider additional 50bp cuts at upcoming meetings.
February 5, 2025
Below 4.0% inflation, easing core services inflation, softer aggregate demand, a cooling labor market, a peso that continues to hold up, and an overly restrictive monetary policy stance, keep the door wide open for a larger 50bp cut.
January 2, 2025
President-elect Trump has threatened mass deportations and greater border securitization, which could affect remittances to Mexico and LAC. However, it is a very unlikely scenario because it would affect the U.S. economy that depends on migrant labor force and increase inflation in that country.
December 20, 2024
However, we think that the best timing to cut the policy rate by 50 bps was today, since the window will likely close early next year if Trump imposes tariffs and a context of global risk aversion hits the peso, turning Banxico even more cautious.
December 17, 2024
Although we think there is a 40% chance of a 50bp cut, the Board will most likely end sticking to another 25bp cut. A 50bp rate cut would be a sound policy decision considering the excessively restrictive real ex-ante rate and the progress of disinflation.
December 2, 2024
The information is as of the close of October 31, 2024, before the presidential elections in the United States were held and President Trump's victory was announced. Therefore, there is no possible "Trump" effect in this data.
