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Inflation surprised to the downside across major economies in October. Besides a favorable base effect and lower energy, reassuringly, services inflation is beginning to ease as well, in both, the US and the eurozone. Meanwhile, bottlenecks seem to be over.
The recovery in private consumption is losing momentum, dropping from an annual 5.9% in the 2021-2022 biennium to 2.0% in 2023-2024. The increase in financing costs counteracts the modest rise in income, net financial wealth, and household expectations.
BBVA Research forecasts GDP growth in La Rioja of 2.3% in 2023. Although the scenario going forward deteriorates, the recovery will continue, and GDP growth of 1.8% is expected in 2024. 5,700 jobs could be created in the 2023-2024 biennium.
In recent months, inflation has shown signs of moderation in most countries, both developed and emerging, but there is still a ways to go before it reaches pre-pandemic levels.
In the US general inflation were steady in September at 3.7% y/y while core inflation inched down. The Eurozone inflation declined significantly to 4.3%
Headline inflation has been trending down but recently this trend has halted. Core inflation remains sticky. Our supply bottlenecks indicator shows no sign of supply disruptions.
Inflation continued trending down thanks to the base effect and lower commodity prices, while core inflation barely declined. Inflation goods continued moderating while services inflation remain more sticky.
Headline inflation eased further in the US in April, while May data for the Euro Area showed price pressures eased after having picked up in April. That said, core inflation remains sticky overall. In contrast, inflation slowed markedly in Chin…
Inflation pressures ease further, albeit with still-high persistance particularly in Euro Area. The relief in supply chain disruptions continues.
The recent financial turmoil in the US and Swiss banking system has exacerbated the already complex monetary policy and inflation outlook, following several years of economic shocks. The central banks have reacted well by separating anti-inflat…
Headline inflationary pressures have tended to ease, except in certain Latam countries, but core inflation is stickier. Supply disruptions have diminished in the US but not yet normalised to pre-pandemic levels in the Euro Area.
December data points to further easing of inflationary pressures in the US and the Euro Area. Bottleneck indicators suggests that supply pressures moderated further in the US and declined marginally in Europe
