Publications

Private consumption growth will exceed 2023 levels (1.8%) in both 2024 (2.5%) and 2025 (2.1%), driven by positive underlying fundamentals.

The disinflation process stalled in the first quarter in the U.S. and in April in the Eurozone (EZ). Additionally, most countries seem stuck with high services prices. Disruptions in shipping routes continued, but without wreaking havoc in supply chains.

Inflation moderated less than expected in the first two months of ‘24 constrained by the modest decline in services. Our supply bottlenecks indicators inched up in February 2024 but remain at very low levels.

The downward trend in core inflation persisted in December, helped by a decline in core goods inflation. Headline inflation increased due to base effects. Geopolitical risk in Middle East East worsened, in turn pushing up freight costs. Our supply bottlenecks indicators inched up in December but remain at low levels.

Inflation pressure continued easing across the board, although core CPI remains high. Bottleneck indicators signal absence of disruptions, although some container freights have rebounded, reflecting the problems in the Red Sea.

Inflation surprised to the downside across major economies in October. Besides a favorable base effect and lower energy, reassuringly, services inflation is beginning to ease as well, in both, the US and the eurozone. Meanwhile, bottlenecks seem to be over.

BBVA Research forecasts GDP growth in La Rioja of 2.3% in 2023. Although the scenario going forward deteriorates, the recovery will continue, and GDP growth of 1.8% is expected in 2024. 5,700 jobs could be created in the 2023-2024 biennium.

In recent months, inflation has shown signs of moderation in most countries, both developed and emerging, but there is still a ways to go before it reaches pre-pandemic levels.