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The Spanish economy continues to grow, and has even accelerated in recent months. However, it does so with investment flagging, despite the support provided by the steady flow of resources from Europe.

Inflation moderated less than expected in the first two months of ‘24 constrained by the modest decline in services. Our supply bottlenecks indicators inched up in February 2024 but remain at very low levels.

The downward trend in core inflation persisted in December, helped by a decline in core goods inflation. Headline inflation increased due to base effects. Geopolitical risk in Middle East East worsened, in turn pushing up freight costs. Our sup…

The economy in general should start 2024 much stronger than expected a year ago after outperforming expectations in 2023. The risks facing the global economy must not materialize for the year to end up better than expected a few quarters ago.

Inflation pressure continued easing across the board, although core CPI remains high. Bottleneck indicators signal absence of disruptions, although some container freights have rebounded, reflecting the problems in the Red Sea.

Inflation surprised to the downside across major economies in October. Besides a favorable base effect and lower energy, reassuringly, services inflation is beginning to ease as well, in both, the US and the eurozone. Meanwhile, bottlenecks seem to be over.

The recovery in private consumption is losing momentum, dropping from an annual 5.9% in the 2021-2022 biennium to 2.0% in 2023-2024. The increase in financing costs counteracts the modest rise in income, net financial wealth, and household expectations.

BBVA Research forecasts GDP growth in La Rioja of 2.3% in 2023. Although the scenario going forward deteriorates, the recovery will continue, and GDP growth of 1.8% is expected in 2024. 5,700 jobs could be created in the 2023-2024 biennium.

In recent months, inflation has shown signs of moderation in most countries, both developed and emerging, but there is still a ways to go before it reaches pre-pandemic levels.

In the US general inflation were steady in September at 3.7% y/y while core inflation inched down. The Eurozone inflation declined significantly to 4.3%

Headline inflation has been trending down but recently this trend has halted. Core inflation remains sticky. Our supply bottlenecks indicator shows no sign of supply disruptions.

Inflation continued trending down thanks to the base effect and lower commodity prices, while core inflation barely declined. Inflation goods continued moderating while services inflation remain more sticky.