Brexit latest publications
The Spanish economy ends the second decade of the 21st century with a GDP growth rate close to its potential and an unemployment rate of 14.3%. During the last three quarters of 2019, GDP has grown at an annualized quarterly rate of 1.6%.
Europe's economic situation is stabilizing following several quarters of deterioration caused by the uncertainties surrounding world trade and Brexit. It seems that there is chance of improvement and that the risk of recession has reduced.
The financial markets enter the final stretch of the year with their eyes set firmly on the trade war and Brexit, meaning that the optimism surrounding the favorable resolution of both matters could be the stimulus that the world economy needs to regain momentum.
Several days ago, and for the third time this year, the Fed reduced the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to a range of between 1.5% and 1.75%. It is very unlikely that it will lower rates again in December.
In the past week, the International Monetary Fund's autumn economic forecast has been published with a downward revision of growth on a global level.
October 2, 2019
Eurozone | Weaker growth in 2H19 on worsening global trade, but also lower domestic demand
EZ GDP growth is expected to slow slightly further to 0.1% QoQ in 2H19. Available data so far show worsening exports, especially those to other EU countries, and industrial output. There are further signs on more moderate consumption and subdued investment despite improving labour market and favorable financing conditions.
Last Thursday, the ECB maintained interest rates, but has prepared the ground for changes in September in response to the fact that inflation and its expectations have been below target for a long time.
The European election results were less negative than feared by pro-European parties, but it is still too early to determine the changes that may come about in terms of economic policy. Currently, they are contributing to the aggravation of political problems in some countries.