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Published on Tuesday, December 1, 2020

Europe | An uncertain Christmas

Although the second wave of the pandemic is going to have a major impact on the European economy in the last quarter of this year, recent news items have painted a somewhat clearer picture of what is in store for 2021.

Key points

  • Key points:
  • One positive was the gradual clarification of the American election results, which have already had an indirect influence on some European issues, such as the shift in Turkey's economic policy toward a more orthodox model and the improved prospects of a permanent Brexit agreement.
  • Another positive aspect is the news coming in about highly effective COVID-19 vaccines and the confirmation that they will arrive at least according to the expected schedule.
  • The best news for the European economy this year is the launch of the Next Generation EU (NGEU) program, which will play a key role in the recovery in Europe and beyond and pave the way for important changes to be made in the European economic policy framework.
  • However, doubts remain—mainly about the evolution of the pandemic, the final Brexit negotiations and Hungary's and Poland's blocking of the NGEU. In the coming weeks, a number of uncertainties will be cleared up which will help us assess the pace of the return to normal.

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