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In June, monthly inflation was 0.51% and 9.67% year-on-year, in line with market analysts' and BBVA Research's expectations. Core inflation (excluding food) stood at 6.84% in annual change, accelerating 34 bps from the previous month's result.

The transmission lag of monetary policy to the price level is five and two quarters for the US and Mexican economies, respectively. A surprise of 50 basis points in the reference rate would reduce the price level by 0.54% and 0.14% in the US and Mexico, respectively.

The significant increase in the international price of gasoline due to the war between Russia and Ukraine will have an adverse impact on the revenue derived from excise taxes on gasoline and diesel.

Consumer prices increased by 3.51% in in November, resulting in an annual inflation of 21.31% up from 19.89% the month before. We expect consumer inflation to surprise on the upside in the coming months with levels likely getting close to 30% t…

The Consumer Price Index of Lima registered a variation of 0.36% MoM in November (Bloomberg consensus: +0.30%). This is mainly a result of higher fuel prices, water tariffs and prices of food in restaurants.

Consumer prices increased by 2.39% in October surprisingly lower than expectations, resulting in an annual inflation of 19.89% up from 19.58% the month before. We expect consumer inflation to be 19.5% at the end of the year, with risks clearly on the upside.

Consumer prices increased by 1.12% monthly and 19.25% annually once again above expectations on the back of a higher than expected food inflation. We expect consumer inflation to stay close to 19% till November and end the year at close to 17%, with the help of positive base effects.

Consumer prices increased by 1.94% in June, remarkably higher than expectations on the back of reopening, resulting in an annual inflation of 17.53% (up from 16.59% the month before). We expect consumer inflation to hover around 18.5% till Nove…

Consumer prices increased by 0.89% in May, sizably lower than expectations, resulting in an annual inflation of 16.59% (down from 17.14% the month before). We maintain our year-end inflation forecast at 15% and expect the CBRT to start an easin…

In April, the Consumer Price Index decreased by 0,10%. With this outcome, inflation fell from 2,6% in March to 2,4% in year-on-year terms, mainly explained by the normalization of food prices.

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  • Peru

Consumer prices increased by 2.30% in November, leading the annual inflation to reach 14.03% up from 11.9% in October. Cost push factors continued to weigh on the upside as domestic producer prices rose by 4% mom. After today's spike, we expect inflation to end 2020 at near 14% and maintain 2021 year-end forecast at 11%.

Consumer prices increased by 2.13% mom in October, leading the annual inflation to increase to 11.89%. Annual core inflation increased to 11.5% from 11.3%. We expect consumer inflation to end the year near 13% and evaluate the risks on the upside for our 2021 inflation forecast of 10%, given the high currency volatility.