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July 6, 2022

Colombia | In June, annual inflation reached 9.67%, the highest in 22 years

In June, monthly inflation was 0.51% and 9.67% year-on-year, in line with market analysts' and BBVA Research's expectations. Core inflation (excluding food) stood at 6.84% in annual change, accelerating 34 bps from the previous month's result.

April 20, 2022

Mexico | Considerations on the transmission lag of monetary policy and other macro shocks

The transmission lag of monetary policy to the price level is five and two quarters for the US and Mexican economies, respectively. A surprise of 50 basis points in the reference rate would reduce the price level by 0.54% and 0.14% in the US and Mexico, respectively.

March 22, 2022

Mexico | Gasoline impact on excise taxes on fuels and consumer prices

The significant increase in the international price of gasoline due to the war between Russia and Ukraine will have an adverse impact on the revenue derived from excise taxes on gasoline and diesel.

December 3, 2021

Turkey | November CPI realized as 21.3%

Consumer prices increased by 3.51% in in November, resulting in an annual inflation of 21.31% up from 19.89% the month before. We expect consumer inflation to surprise on the upside in the coming months with levels likely getting close to 30% towards the end of 1Q22.

December 1, 2021

Peru | Inflation moderates slightly, but prices remain under pressure looking forward

The Consumer Price Index of Lima registered a variation of 0.36% MoM in November (Bloomberg consensus: +0.30%). This is mainly a result of higher fuel prices, water tariffs and prices of food in restaurants.

November 3, 2021

Turkey | Core inflation came down to 16.8%

Consumer prices increased by 2.39% in October surprisingly lower than expectations, resulting in an annual inflation of 19.89% up from 19.58% the month before. We expect consumer inflation to be 19.5% at the end of the year, with risks clearly on the upside.

September 3, 2021

Turkey | Consumer inflation rose up to 19.25%

Consumer prices increased by 1.12% monthly and 19.25% annually once again above expectations on the back of a higher than expected food inflation. We expect consumer inflation to stay close to 19% till November and end the year at close to 17%, with the help of positive base effects.

July 5, 2021

Turkey | Upside surprise in June CPI

Consumer prices increased by 1.94% in June, remarkably higher than expectations on the back of reopening, resulting in an annual inflation of 17.53% (up from 16.59% the month before). We expect consumer inflation to hover around 18.5% till November and end the year at near 16% with base effects.