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    October 3, 2019

    Turkey: Inflation again surprised on the downside

    Consumer prices increased by 0.99% mom in September lower than the median consensus (1.38%, Bloomberg and BBVA Research). Hence, annual inflation decreased to one digit level of 9.3% from 15% in August, the lowest level since January 2017. We expect annual inflation to get closer to 12.5% at the end of the year.

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    September 4, 2018

    Turkey | Upside surprise from core prices

    Consumer prices increased 2.3% (mom) in August slightly higher than our estimate and market consensus (2.0% vs. 2.2%), leading the annual figure to rise to 17.90% from 15.85% in July. Annual core inflation accelerated to 17.2% in August from 15.1% on top of strengthening exchange rate pass-thru and climbing cost-push facto…

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    December 4, 2017

    Turkey: Inflation path deteriorates further

    Annual consumer inflation hit 13% mostly due to the sizable pick-up in food inflation and also the jump in both energy and core prices in November. Recent events and rigidity in core prices signal that the range of the CBRT’s expected medium term disinflation path may not to be materialized, thus, monetary policy should be …

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    November 3, 2016

    Turkey: Core Prices Lowered Headline Inflation

    Consumer prices rose below consensus (1.44% vs 1.62%) in October, bringing down the annual headline inflation to 7.2% from 7.3%. Sizable fall in core inflation more than compensated the small upward correction in food prices and resulted in a slight fall in the headline figure.

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    June 3, 2016

    Turkey | Inflation stable yet the core improved

    In May monthly consumer prices rose 0.6%, slightly lower than market expectations of 0.7%. Annual inflation stayed stable at 6.6%. Although the headline remained constant, underlying factors improved compared to the previous month.

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