Publications

This week, BBVA Research published an analysis of private consumption in Colombia, covering topics from the impact of the pandemic to demographic trends shaping household spending. The report confirms that private consumption remains a fundamental pillar of the Colombian economy, with one of the highest GDP shares globally.

Considering the more favorable trend of private spending and households’ early access to private pension funds, output growth forecast for 2022 has been raised to 2,3%, while that for 2023 remains at 2,8% given that the deterioration of the external environment is expected to be offset by the recovery of mining production.

A few days ago, inflation data for January was published, which marked a turning point from the falls in 2020. Many citizens might only have noticed the recent price rises. But the change in the market basket is the key.

In the last week, consumption remained stable in falls close to 20% y/y, with a greater deterioration in the case of services than goods. At the regional level there were mixed results; in Bogota consumption deteriorated while in Medellin there was a rebound due to the end of the quarantine on weekends.

Financial Education Day was celebrated in Spain on Monday, October 7. We have also recently started to notice the effects of the beginning of autumn on health.

Digital technology will continue to empower consumers, granting them deeper product and pricing transparency, control over different layers of the value chain, and refinement of experiences. Survivalist mode will compel consumers to search for new ways to be frugal, facilitating the next-generation of the sharing economy.