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In the last few months, a depression appears to have arrived that has poured cold water on economic forecasts — affecting in particular the autonomous communities of the North. This correction, however, does not stop us from repeating once again that in both 2021 and 2022, growth is expected to reach historical highs.
A few days ago, inflation data for January was published, which marked a turning point from the falls in 2020. Many citizens might only have noticed the recent price rises. But the change in the market basket is the key.
In the last week, consumption remained stable in falls close to 20% y/y, with a greater deterioration in the case of services than goods. At the regional level there were mixed results; in Bogota consumption deteriorated while in Medellin there was a rebound due to the end of the quarantine on weekends.
We estimate that retail sales' growth rate in 2020 will be similar to that of this year. Looking forward, factors such as the demographic boon, higher household purchasing power and the continued growth of online shopping, suggest that retail sales have space to continue growing.
Financial Education Day was celebrated in Spain on Monday, October 7. We have also recently started to notice the effects of the beginning of autumn on health.
Digital technology will continue to empower consumers, granting them deeper product and pricing transparency, control over different layers of the value chain, and refinement of experiences. Survivalist mode will compel consumers to search for new ways to be frugal, facilitating the next-generation of the sharing economy.