Core inflation

Core inflation latest publications

December 4, 2019

Eurozone | Some improvement in growth and inflation figures, though risks persist

Eurozone growth stabilized in 3Q19 thanks to the resilience of domestic demand, while the deterioration of industrial production and exports has halted. Our MICA-BBVA model projects still low growth in 4Q19. Core inflation has stepped in November, but it is early to tell if it will be sustainable.

December 3, 2019

Mexico | November inflation forecast: core continued to ease slowly in November

We expect headline inflation to increase 0.79% MoM in November (2.96% YoY), with core coming in at 0.22% MoM (3.65% YoY).

December 3, 2019

Turkey | Inflation surprised on the downside

Consumer prices increased by 0.38% mom in November, way lower than market consensus and ours (0.75%, Bloomberg vs 0.77%, BBVA). Annual inflation increased to 10.56% from 8.55% in October due to the unfavorable base effect. We expect that annual inflation will increase close to 11.8% at the end of 2019 with downside risk.

November 21, 2019

Mexico | 1H of November inflation forecast

Relatively stable YoY inflation in the first half, but lower in November.

November 4, 2019

Mexico | October inflation forecast:stable headline inflation & lower core in annual terms

We expect headline inflation to increase 0.51% MoM in October (2.99% YoY), with core coming in at 0.22% MoM (3.66% YoY).

November 4, 2019

Turkey | Inflation materialized as expected

Consumer prices increased by 2.0% mom in October, in line with median market expectation but slightly higher than ours (2.0%, Bloomberg vs 1.8%, BBVA). Annual inflation decreased further to 8.55% from 9.3% in September on the back of strong favorable base effect . We expect year end annual inflation to materialize as 11.8%.

October 22, 2019

Mexico | 1H October inflation forecast: stable inflation in annual terms

We expect headline inflation to increase 0.44% HoH in the first half of October (3.05% YoY), with core coming in at 0.16% HoH (3.71% YoY).

October 8, 2019

Mexico |September inflation forecast:annual headline inflation will ease for the 5th month

Core inflation will drop for the fourth consecutive month.