Searcher

Core inflation

Core inflation latest publications

October 3, 2022

Türkiye | Uncertainty on inflation figures

Consumer prices rose by 3.08% in September, below both market consensus (3.15%) and our expectation (3.7%), which led to an annual inflation of 83.5%. We expect consumer inflation to be 70% at the end of the year as base effects would start a disinflation path.

September 5, 2022

Türkiye | August CPI surprised to the downside

Consumer prices rose by 1.46% in August, once again below both market consensus and our expectation (2%), which led to an annual inflation of 80.2%. We forecast consumer inflation to be 70% at the end of the year and 33% at the end of 2023, with risks remaining on the upside.

August 5, 2022

Colombia | Annual inflation reached double digits in July: 10.2%

In July, inflation reached a double-digit annual variation of 10.21% and a monthly variation of 0.81%, above analysts' expectations (average monthly variation of 0.53% according to Banco de la República's survey) and BBVA Research.

August 3, 2022

Türkiye | July CPI lower than expected

Consumer prices rose by 2.37% in July, once again below market consensus (2.6%) and our expectation (4%), which led to an annual inflation of 79.6%. We expect consumer inflation to accelerate above 90% in the coming months before slowing down to near 70% given positive base effects in the last two months of the year.

July 4, 2022

Turkey | Annual CPI got closer to 80%

Consumer prices increased by 4.95% in June, slightly lower than market consensus (5.7%) and our expectation (5.5%), which resulted in an annual figure of 78.6%. We expect consumer inflation to accelerate above 90% in the coming months led by loose economic policies and significantly deteriorating inflation expectations.

June 3, 2022

Turkey | CPI surprised on the downside but maintained an increasing trend

Consumer prices increased by 2.98% in May, much lower than market consensus (4%), which resulted in an annual figure of 73.5%. We expect consumer inflation to accelerate above 80% in the coming months before slowing down to near 60% given positive base effects in the last two months of the year.

May 5, 2022

Turkey | CPI touched 70% in April

Consumer inflation increased by 7.25% mom in April, leading annual inflation to reach 70%. High commodity prices, deteriorated inflation expectations and ongoing global supply-side problems are the upside risks on our expectation anticipating inflation to hover above 70% till November before fall to 50% at the end of 2022.

April 4, 2022

Turkey | CPI reached above 61% in March

Consumer prices increased by 5.5% in March, parallel to expectations and resulted in an annual inflation of 61.1% up from 54.4% the month before. Looking ahead, we expect consumer inflation to hover near 70% in 2Q and 3Q and decline to 50% at the end of the year, led by the favorable base effects.