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In June, monthly inflation was 0.32%, and annual inflation was 7.18%, slightly higher than the previous month's figure. The result was close to the expectations of market analysts who, according to Banco de la República's survey, expected a monthly variation of 0.28%.
Consumer prices rose by 1.64% m/m in June, well below our expectation (2.24%), which led to an annual inflation of 71.60%. We expect the monthly consumer inflation trend to continue to weaken, driving the annual inflation down to 45-50% range by September and to 43% by the end of 2024.
Consumer prices rose by 3.37% m/m in May, higher than expectations (3.1% consensus and 3% ours), leading the annual inflation to rise to 75.45%. We expect inflation to decline faster in 2H24 on favorable base effects and reach 43% at the year e…
Consumer prices rose by 3.18% in April, parallel to our expectation of 3.1% and slightly lower than the consensus of 3.4%, which led to an annual inflation of 69.8%. Given the expectations of a tighter policy mix in the coming period, we acknow…
Consumer prices rose by 3.16% (68.5% y/y) in March, lower than both our expectation and consensus (3.5% and 3.6%, respectively). We expect annual consumer inflation to reach 45% by 2024 end under the assumption of 3.5% GDP growth in 2024, gradu…
Consumer prices rose by 4.53% in Feb, higher than our exp. and cons. (4.0% both), and annual inflation accelerated to 67.07% (64.86% prev.). Given the strong realizations in Jan. and Feb, we expect tighter financial conditions to be pursued in post-election period and maintain our 2024 year-end inflation expectation of 45%.
In January, monthly inflation was 0.92% and annual inflation was 8.35%, very close to the expectations of market analysts, who according to the survey of Banco de la República expected 0.93% in the monthly variation.
Consumer prices rose by 6.70% in January, higher than our expectation (5.7%) but parallel to the consensus (6.6%) and annual consumer inflation accelerated slightly to 64.86% (vs. 64.77 prev.). We eliminate our previous downward bias and now ex…
December's inflation increased to 3.4%, driven by a monthly variation of 0.3%. At 3.9%, core inflation rose by 0.3% month-on-month, influenced by used cars and shelter; the latter remains a key factor for the expected decline in inflation in th…
In December 2023, inflation registered a monthly variation of 0.45% and an annual variation of 9.28%. This result was below the expectations of market analysts, who according to the survey conducted by Banco de la República expected a monthly v…
Consumer prices rose by 2.93% m/m in Dec, lower than our expectation (3.3%) and consensus (3.0%) and annual CPI accelerated to 64.77% (vs. 61.98% prev.). We expect 2024 year-end consumer inflation to reach 45%, though recent improvement in inflation trend and potentially stable currency pose downward risk on our forecast.
In November, monthly inflation was 0.47% and annual inflation was 10.15%, in line with market analysts' expectations, according to Banco de la República's survey. Thus, the figure decreased by 33 basis points compared to the previous month's figure.
