Core inflation

Core inflation latest publications

August 6, 2019

Mexico | July CPI forecast: inflation continues to ease

Core inflation will likely remain sticky to the downside during 3Q19.

June 12, 2019

Turkey | CBRT remains “tight” but closer to “ease”

As expected, the CBRT maintained its policy rate unchanged. Important uncertainties on politics and geopolitics remain to be solved, so today’s decision is a prudent one. We maintain our view that the CBRT will start the gradual easing cycle towards the end of the year, but the expected disinflation could bring it forward.

January 3, 2019

Turkey | Inflation declines again in December

Consumer prices fell by -0.4% in December, leading the annual figure to further ease to 20.3% from 21.6% in November. Considering the recent price regulations, risks are balanced on our year-end inflation expectation of 16%. Though, the path for output gap, oil prices and currency volatility will be the determinant factors …

December 5, 2018

Eurozone | A measure of supercore inflation for the eurozone

We develop a supercore inflation measure following the methodology proposed by the ECB that provides an early indication of turning points in underlying inflation. The measure is built for the Eurozone as a whole and for its large economies. Results show that inflation pressures are moderating in the euro area with divergin…

November 3, 2017

Inflation: Further Worsening over Core Prices

Consumer prices increased by 2.08% (mom) in October, higher than the consensus (1.7%) and our forecast (1.9%). Annual consumer inflation jumped up to 11.9% from 11.2% on still worsening core inflation and renewed pick-up in energy prices.

August 3, 2017

Inflation: Core inflation implies risks on the upside

Consumer prices rose by 0.15% in July, incrementally lower than the market consensus and our call (0.2%). Annual headline fell to 9.8% thanks to food and favorable base impact on tobacco. Looking ahead, we expect the headline inflation to breach 10% in August and stay at 10-11% levels till December before it would sizably f…

August 1, 2017

Turkey | Monthly Economic Monitor - July 2017

Robust stance in the economic activity continued in 2Q, according to our nowcast. Inflation will ease further in summer on top of favorable base effects before climbing up again in 3Q. The CBRT strengthened its hawkish stance by keeping its interest rates intact and having the average funding rate hover above 11.9%.

July 27, 2017

The CBRT Strengthens its Credibility

The Central Bank kept its interest rate corridor unchanged. Bearing in mind the stickiness in inflation and the ongoing high momentum of the economic activity, we expect the Bank not to find enough room for monetary easing until the end of the year when the headline will fall towards 9% thanks to favorable base effects on f…