Core inflation latest publications
Eurozone growth stabilized in 3Q19 thanks to the resilience of domestic demand, while the deterioration of industrial production and exports has halted. Our MICA-BBVA model projects still low growth in 4Q19. Core inflation has stepped in November, but it is early to tell if it will be sustainable.
We expect headline inflation to increase 0.79% MoM in November (2.96% YoY), with core coming in at 0.22% MoM (3.65% YoY).
Consumer prices increased by 0.38% mom in November, way lower than market consensus and ours (0.75%, Bloomberg vs 0.77%, BBVA). Annual inflation increased to 10.56% from 8.55% in October due to the unfavorable base effect. We expect that annual inflation will increase close to 11.8% at the end of 2019 with downside risk.
November 4, 2019
Mexico | October inflation forecast:stable headline inflation & lower core in annual terms
We expect headline inflation to increase 0.51% MoM in October (2.99% YoY), with core coming in at 0.22% MoM (3.66% YoY).
Consumer prices increased by 2.0% mom in October, in line with median market expectation but slightly higher than ours (2.0%, Bloomberg vs 1.8%, BBVA). Annual inflation decreased further to 8.55% from 9.3% in September on the back of strong favorable base effect . We expect year end annual inflation to materialize as 11.8%.
We expect headline inflation to increase 0.44% HoH in the first half of October (3.05% YoY), with core coming in at 0.16% HoH (3.71% YoY).