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In August, monthly inflation was 0.00% and annual inflation was 6.12%, surprisingly well below market analysts' expectations according to Banco de la República's survey (0.24%). With this, the result is 74 bps below the previous month's figure and accelerates the pace of adjustments of previous months.
Consumer prices rose by %2.47 m/m in August, higher than our expectation (2.2%) and consensus (2.3%). As a result, annual consumer inflation came down to 51.9% from 61.8% previously. We forecast inflation trend to improve; reaching 1.5-2% monthly in 4Q24 and finish the year annually at 43% in 2024 and 25% in 2025.
July national inflation was, as expected, the lowest of the year (4.0% m/m, 263.4% y/y). It was in line with market forecasts (BBVA: 4.1% m/m, Central Bank consensus: 3.9% m/m), although slightly above the Central Bank's forecast (3.7% m/m).
In July, monthly inflation was 0.20% and annual inflation was 6.86%, close to market analysts' expectations, according to Banco de la República's survey (0.28%) and our forecast (0.24%). With this, the result is 32 bps below the previous month'…
Consumer inflation increased by 3.23% m/m in July, slightly lower than our expectation, while the annual inflation declined to 61.8% from 72% in June on favorable base effect. We expect the annual inflation to decline below %50 as of September …
In June, monthly inflation was 0.32%, and annual inflation was 7.18%, slightly higher than the previous month's figure. The result was close to the expectations of market analysts who, according to Banco de la República's survey, expected a monthly variation of 0.28%.
Consumer prices rose by 1.64% m/m in June, well below our expectation (2.24%), which led to an annual inflation of 71.60%. We expect the monthly consumer inflation trend to continue to weaken, driving the annual inflation down to 45-50% range by September and to 43% by the end of 2024.
Consumer prices rose by 3.37% m/m in May, higher than expectations (3.1% consensus and 3% ours), leading the annual inflation to rise to 75.45%. We expect inflation to decline faster in 2H24 on favorable base effects and reach 43% at the year e…
Consumer prices rose by 3.18% in April, parallel to our expectation of 3.1% and slightly lower than the consensus of 3.4%, which led to an annual inflation of 69.8%. Given the expectations of a tighter policy mix in the coming period, we acknow…
Consumer prices rose by 3.16% (68.5% y/y) in March, lower than both our expectation and consensus (3.5% and 3.6%, respectively). We expect annual consumer inflation to reach 45% by 2024 end under the assumption of 3.5% GDP growth in 2024, gradu…
Consumer prices rose by 4.53% in Feb, higher than our exp. and cons. (4.0% both), and annual inflation accelerated to 67.07% (64.86% prev.). Given the strong realizations in Jan. and Feb, we expect tighter financial conditions to be pursued in post-election period and maintain our 2024 year-end inflation expectation of 45%.
In January, monthly inflation was 0.92% and annual inflation was 8.35%, very close to the expectations of market analysts, who according to the survey of Banco de la República expected 0.93% in the monthly variation.
