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May’s inflation was 1.5% m/m (43.5% y/y), well below expectations (CB-consensus: 2.1% m/m, BBVAe: 1.9% m/m). Core inflation fell to 2.2% m/m in May.

In May 2025, the CPI fell by 0.06%, mainly due to lower food prices, particularly poultry products, following previous increases. Electricity rates and fuel prices also declined, reflecting lower international oil prices.

Annual inflation in April surprises on the upside (5.2%), driven by regulated items and goods. Core inflation (excluding food) also increases. Doubts persist regarding the speed of future moderation. This result may lead to upward revisions of forecasts and uncertainty about the future monetary policy stance.

The CPI increased 0.81% month-over-month in March, driven by weather anomalies and the adjustment in student pensions. In contrast, the decrease in transportation prices and the return to normal fare prices after the Carnival holidays helped moderate inflation.

Monthly inflation in February was 1.14%, while annual inflation stood at 5.28%. This result exceeded market analysts' expectations, as the Banco de la República survey had anticipated a monthly variation of 0.98%.

The consumer price index increased 0.19% m/m in February affected by adverse weather conditions (they negatively impacted the normal supply of some foods) and the greater demand for transportation due to carnivals. On the contrary, the decrease in electricity rates attenuated the advance of the CPI.

Monthly inflation in January was 0.94%, exceeding analysts' expectations (0.82% projected in the Central Bank of Colombia’s survey). As a result, the annual variation remained stable for the third consecutive month at approximately 5.22%.

The consumer price index contracted 0.09% m/m in January. The result for the month is mainly explained by the seasonal normalization after the end of the year holidays (price of poultry products and transportation rates). The interannual inflation rate was 1.9% in January.