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October economic activity indicators showed continuing sliding. All of these activity indicators are below the previous month’s readings and the market consensus amid the weak market sentiments.

National inflation for October was 2.3% monthly (31.3% annually), exceeding estimates. It is the highest monthly value since April, but a reversal is expected in November due to exchange rate stability and the dissipation of electoral uncertainty.

Lima’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.10% m/m in October. Despite the decline—driven by lower prices in communications, food, and energy—annual inflation remained virtually stable at 1.4% compared to September, within the Central Bank’s target range.

Consumer prices rose by 2.55% m/m, lower than both consensus (Bloomberg, 2.7%) and our expectation (2.85%), leading to its annual inflation to retreat to 32.9%. We now expect 2025 year-end inflation to be 32.5%, raising upside risks on our 2026 year-end forecast of 23% as well.

Monthly inflation in September was 0.32%, above the expectations of analysts (0.24% according to the Central Bank’s survey) and BBVA Research (0.23%). As a result, annual inflation stood at 5.18%, an increase of 8 basis points compared to August, marking three consecutive months of increases.

Lima’s CPI rose 0.01% m/m in September. Lower prices for rents, electricity, cars, fuels, airfares, and poultry products contained inflation. On an annual basis, inflation increased from 1.1% in August to 1.4% in September, due to a low comparison base.

As the trade war shock has faded, the recent data surprised the market to the downside as domestic risks take the place of external shock to become the main drag on growth in China.