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Lima’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.10% m/m in October. Despite the decline—driven by lower prices in communications, food, and energy—annual inflation remained virtually stable at 1.4% compared to September, within the Central Bank’s target range.

Consumer prices rose by 2.55% m/m, lower than both consensus (Bloomberg, 2.7%) and our expectation (2.85%), leading to its annual inflation to retreat to 32.9%. We now expect 2025 year-end inflation to be 32.5%, raising upside risks on our 2026 year-end forecast of 23% as well.

Monthly inflation in September was 0.32%, above the expectations of analysts (0.24% according to the Central Bank’s survey) and BBVA Research (0.23%). As a result, annual inflation stood at 5.18%, an increase of 8 basis points compared to August, marking three consecutive months of increases.

Lima’s CPI rose 0.01% m/m in September. Lower prices for rents, electricity, cars, fuels, airfares, and poultry products contained inflation. On an annual basis, inflation increased from 1.1% in August to 1.4% in September, due to a low comparison base.

As the trade war shock has faded, the recent data surprised the market to the downside as domestic risks take the place of external shock to become the main drag on growth in China.

National inflation in August was 1.9% month-on-month, remaining at the same level as the previous month despite the full impact of exchange rate and interest rate movements at the end of July. This was slightly below analysts' expectations.

The Lima Consumer Price Index (CPI) contracted 0.29% in August 2025, surprising the consensus of analysts. Year-on-year inflation fell to 1.1%, close to the lower limit of the Central Bank's target range. Inflation excluding food and energy rose slightly to 1.8%.