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March 18, 2019

The quest for balance in the Spanish pension system

The diagnosis of the system's current problems is well known. Since the start of the 2008 financial crisis, pension spending has increased by 4% on average annually, whilst earnings have stagnated—or even decreased—as a result of a 17% fall in employment.

November 5, 2018

Turkey | Still worrisome inflation outlook

CPI increased by 2.67% in October (slightly higher than market & BBVA Research expectations of 2.5%). Annual consumer inflation maintained its upward trend by reaching 25.2%, up from 24.5% in September. We expect the inflation to come down to 23.5% at the end of 2018 on recent tax cuts on automobile and durable goods and la…

October 4, 2018

Turkey | A big upside surprise on inflation

CPI increased 6.3% (mom) in September, significantly higher than our and market expectations (3.9% vs. 3.4%). This leads the annual figure to jump to 24.5% from 17.9% in August. Today’s inflation data shows that pricing behavior is adjusting faster than expected and this could be considered as a “factor affecting inflation …

February 28, 2018

China | A preview of the NPC and CPPC sessions

On March 5th, Chinese lawmakers will convene at Beijing for the National People’s Congress. The Premier will announce key economic targets for 2018, including growth, CPI, M2 and fiscal budget etc. Although there will be personnel change for the PBoC governor, the PBoC will maintain prudent monetary policy stance. Tax cut a…

February 8, 2018

Chile | January CPI of 0.5% MoM (2.2% YoY), with a significant effect from food

The January CPI 0.5% MoM surprised the market and exceeded expectations, due to a significant increase in the price of food (vegetables). Core inflation of 0.3% MoM was largely due to the readjustment of tariffs and a seasonal increase in some services, since the inflation of goods was at 0.1% MoM. The disinflationary impac…

January 8, 2018

Chile | December CPI of 0.1% MoM (2.3% YoY) confirms low inflationary pressures

The December CPI of 0.1% MoM is at the lower end of analysts’ expectations. Core inflation of 0.2% MoM was largely due to the seasonal increase in some services, since the inflation of goods was at -0.2% MoM. This constrained figure, together with the low diffusion, confirm the absence of inflationary pressures in the baske…

December 7, 2017

Chile | IPC de noviembre de 0,1% gracias a paquete turístico y alimentos

Nuevamente paquete turístico, junto a un comportamiento de alimentos determinan la inflación mensual del mes. El registro confirma bajas presiones inflacionarias pero no llevaría al Banco Central a modificar su postura.

November 8, 2017

Chile | IPC de 0,6% m/m pone en jaque ajustes en la TPM

Sorpresa de octubre se compensa con la del mes anterior, y no altera diagnóstico de opacas presiones inflacionarias