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January 23, 2020

China Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2020

Chinese economic growth has slightly recovered in the last quarter of 2019, although it continued its medium-to-long-term slowdown trend amid unsettled trade war and domestic structural obstacles. The 2019 whole year GDP growth reached 6.1%, the lowest growth rate for the past three decades.

November 20, 2019

Uruguay Economic Outlook. Second half 2019

We revised Uruguay's GDP growth downwards due to greater global uncertainty.

October 24, 2019

Turkey | The CBRT easing cycle continues

The Central Bank reduced the policy rate by 250 bps to 14% from 16.50%, much higher than market expectation (100bps). We think that the CBRT should start to increase caution in the magnitude of the policy rate cuts as global uncertainty remains well alive and the CBRT should be ready to react at any moment if needed.

October 23, 2019

Turkey Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2019

Turkey´s economic recovery is gaining momentum and will accelerate in the second half of the year. The “V” shape recovery is in line with our expectations, leading us to maintain our GDP forecast at 0.3% in 2019 with upside risks and 3% in 2020.

October 22, 2019

Peru Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2019

We forecast a GDP expansion of 2,5% in 2019, similar to our August forecast. For 2020 we anticipate GDP will grow 3,1% thanks to the normalization of primary activities (mining) and a stronger push from public spending.
  • Geography Tags
  • Peru

October 22, 2019

China Economic Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2019

The Q3 GDP growth slowed to 6% y/y, the lowest growth rate for the past three decades. The prospect of China’s economy hinges on the development of trade talks with the US at the current stage. The two sides recently tried to pursue a partial agreement first and leave the thorny part of negotiation to the next phases.

September 23, 2019

Mexico | 1H Sep CPI forecast: annual headline inflation likely stayed stable close to 3.0%

We expect a 0.26% HoH headline inflation print in the first half of September (3.07% YoY), with core at 0.19% MoM (3.77% YoY).

September 16, 2019

China | Growth slowdown confirmed in August

A batch of August indicators announced today pointed to a significant slowdown in economic activities this summer. Together with the previously released trade and credit data, it suggests that the escalating uncertainties from the US-China trade war dampened people’s confidence and hamper economic expansion.