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September 23, 2019

Mexico | 1H Sep CPI forecast: annual headline inflation likely stayed stable close to 3.0%

We expect a 0.26% HoH headline inflation print in the first half of September (3.07% YoY), with core at 0.19% MoM (3.77% YoY).

September 16, 2019

China | Growth slowdown confirmed in August

A batch of August indicators announced today pointed to a significant slowdown in economic activities this summer. Together with the previously released trade and credit data, it suggests that the escalating uncertainties from the US-China trade war dampened people’s confidence and hamper economic expansion.

August 14, 2019

China | Growth dipped in July

A batch of July economic indicators are announced today, together with the previously released trade and credit data, suggesting that the growth further decelerated amid the escalation of US-China trade war and the domestic structural obstacles such as debt overhang and financial risks.

July 22, 2019

Mexico | 1HJul CPI forecast: fruit & vegetable will prevent a decrease in annual inflation

Core inflation will likely remain sticky to the downside during 3Q19.

March 18, 2019

The quest for balance in the Spanish pension system

The diagnosis of the system's current problems is well known. Since the start of the 2008 financial crisis, pension spending has increased by 4% on average annually, whilst earnings have stagnated—or even decreased—as a result of a 17% fall in employment.

November 5, 2018

Turkey | Still worrisome inflation outlook

CPI increased by 2.67% in October (slightly higher than market & BBVA Research expectations of 2.5%). Annual consumer inflation maintained its upward trend by reaching 25.2%, up from 24.5% in September. We expect the inflation to come down to 23.5% at the end of 2018 on recent tax cuts on automobile and durable goods and la…

October 4, 2018

Turkey | A big upside surprise on inflation

CPI increased 6.3% (mom) in September, significantly higher than our and market expectations (3.9% vs. 3.4%). This leads the annual figure to jump to 24.5% from 17.9% in August. Today’s inflation data shows that pricing behavior is adjusting faster than expected and this could be considered as a “factor affecting inflation …

February 28, 2018

China | A preview of the NPC and CPPC sessions

On March 5th, Chinese lawmakers will convene at Beijing for the National People’s Congress. The Premier will announce key economic targets for 2018, including growth, CPI, M2 and fiscal budget etc. Although there will be personnel change for the PBoC governor, the PBoC will maintain prudent monetary policy stance. Tax cut a…