CPI latest publications
Lima's Consumer Price Index rose 0.46% m/m in July, above market expectations (Bloomberg Consensus: 0.06% m/m). With July's monthly result, year-on-year inflation accelerated to 1.9%, compared to 1.6% the previous month.
Consumer prices increased by 1.36% in May. Therefore, annual inflation accelerated to 11.39% from 10.94% in April. Depending on the food inflation and the level of exchange rate, headline inflation could stay close to 12% in June before converging to 9% towards the end of 3Q and ending the year at near 8.5%.
In May, Lima's Consumer Price Index rose 0.20% m/m, above market expectations (Bloomberg Consensus: +0.04%). With May's monthly result, year-on-year inflation accelerated slightly to 1.8%YoY, from 1.7%YoY the previous month.
On May 22th, in the third session of NPC, Premier Li Keqiang delivered the Government Work Report. The report not only summarized the achievements of China in 2019 but also made a blueprint of every perspective of economic and social development for 2020.
Lima's Consumer Price Index increased +0.10% m/m, slightly more than the market consensus anticipated (Bloomberg Consensus: +0.04% m/m). With the monthly result for April, year-on-year inflation decreased for the second consecutive month, to 1.7% YoY.
We are trying to assess a large group of forecasting models’ performance in predicting China’s inflation. Both linear and structural forecasting models are discussed, estimated and evaluated based on some typical criteria such as RMSE, MAE and Theil-U.
Chinese economic growth has slightly recovered in the last quarter of 2019, although it continued its medium-to-long-term slowdown trend amid unsettled trade war and domestic structural obstacles. The 2019 whole year GDP growth reached 6.1%, the lowest growth rate for the past three decades.