Publications

Headline inflation increased by 0.6 percentage points, to 4.9% year-on-year in September. Core inflation rose slightly, to 3.1%. For October, BBVA Research forecasts headline inflation of 4.8%, while core inflation would remain around 3.1%.

The Spanish economy shows remarkable resilience. Despite inflation and rate hikes, consumption and investment remain robust. The private sector's lower vulnerability and the use of household savings explain this strength.

Annual inflation in Colombia rose marginally in September to 6.29%, 5 bps above August. This movement is explained by an acceleration in food prices, especially perishables, and a moderation in the non-food basket, which broke a six-month upward trend.

The Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) kept the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% for the thirteenth consecutive month, surprising the market. However, it reiterated its willingness to make short-term adjustments, maintaining an upward bias as annual inflation rose to 4.5% in September.

Peru's Big Data Private Consumption Index grew 9.3% year-on-year in September, above the historical average. This progress occurs in a context of high inflation (4.5%) that affects purchasing power; however, consumer credit and labor market are providing support.

Consumer inflation came in at 1.84% m/m, below our forecast (2.3%) and consensus (2.2%), bringing annual inflation down to 29.7%, also on base effects. Energy outlook poses upside risks, while weaker demand provides some offset. We keep our 30% year-end inflation forecast, with slight downside risk after the latest print.

By a majority, Colombia's central bank increased the interest rate by 25bp to 12.25%. The decision responds to the rebound in annual inflation to 6.2% in August and rising expectations, despite signs of a slowdown in economic activity and a weak labor market.