CPI latest publications
Chinese economic growth has slightly recovered in the last quarter of 2019, although it continued its medium-to-long-term slowdown trend amid unsettled trade war and domestic structural obstacles. The 2019 whole year GDP growth reached 6.1%, the lowest growth rate for the past three decades.
The Central Bank reduced the policy rate by 250 bps to 14% from 16.50%, much higher than market expectation (100bps). We think that the CBRT should start to increase caution in the magnitude of the policy rate cuts as global uncertainty remains well alive and the CBRT should be ready to react at any moment if needed.
Turkey´s economic recovery is gaining momentum and will accelerate in the second half of the year. The “V” shape recovery is in line with our expectations, leading us to maintain our GDP forecast at 0.3% in 2019 with upside risks and 3% in 2020.
We forecast a GDP expansion of 2,5% in 2019, similar to our August forecast. For 2020 we anticipate GDP will grow 3,1% thanks to the normalization of primary activities (mining) and a stronger push from public spending.
The Q3 GDP growth slowed to 6% y/y, the lowest growth rate for the past three decades. The prospect of China’s economy hinges on the development of trade talks with the US at the current stage. The two sides recently tried to pursue a partial agreement first and leave the thorny part of negotiation to the next phases.
September 23, 2019
Mexico | 1H Sep CPI forecast: annual headline inflation likely stayed stable close to 3.0%
We expect a 0.26% HoH headline inflation print in the first half of September (3.07% YoY), with core at 0.19% MoM (3.77% YoY).
A batch of August indicators announced today pointed to a significant slowdown in economic activities this summer. Together with the previously released trade and credit data, it suggests that the escalating uncertainties from the US-China trade war dampened people’s confidence and hamper economic expansion.