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The Central Bank kept the policy rate at 50% in line with expectations, maintaining a wait and see approach with a hawkish message. They highlight a potential temporary increase in monthly inflation in July, but expect the rise in the underlying inflation trend to be limited.
National inflation in June was 4.6% MoM (271.5% YoY) and accelerated with respect to the previous month (4.2% MoM) for the first time in the Milei administration but due to the disparate behaviour of regulated prices in both months. Even so, the value was lower than expected.
In June, monthly inflation was 0.32%, and annual inflation was 7.18%, slightly higher than the previous month's figure. The result was close to the expectations of market analysts who, according to Banco de la República's survey, expected a mon…
June inflation was 0.12% MoM. The result for the month is explained by the increase in the prices of foods such as fish and potatoes, moderated by the decrease in the prices of chicken, some fruits, and fuel. The year-on-year rate was 2.3% (2.0…
After a weak GDP growth of 0.4% in 2023, activity will grow 3.2% in 2024 due to the recovery of the agricultural sector, hydroelectric power generation and private consumption. Even so, reforms are needed to gain competitiveness and maintain a …
The Central Bank kept the policy rate at 50% in line with expectations. We expect that annual inflation will come down to 45-50% by September on base effects before ending the year at 43%. We believe that there would be only a limited room to start easing cycle very gradually in 4Q24 considering high inflation expectations.
The BBVA Forum is a quarterly event aimed at the bank's clients. In each edition, we present a summary of our global and national economic outlook as a contribution to their short- and medium-term financial decisions.
INDEC's monthly national inflation stood at 4.2% in May (276.4% y/y), the lowest in the last 29 months and much lower than expected (BBVA: 5.8% m/m, REM-BCRA: 5.2% m/m). Core inflation was the main downward surprise, reaching 3.7% m/m (277.3% y…
We summarize the recent development of the Chinese economy and highlight the unbalanced economic structure. Risks include the housing market, geopolitics, deflation and unbalanced economic structure. We also analyze the ongoing fiscal and monet…
In May, monthly inflation was 0.43% and annual inflation was 7.16%, close to market analysts' expectations, according to Banco de la República's survey (0.41%) and below our forecast (0.51%).
The consumer price index contracted 0.09% m/m in May. The reduction in food prices and electricity rates stood out. The interannual rate was 2.0% (2.4% in April) in the center of the Central Bank's target range.
Monthly inflation had not reached values below 10% since October 2023; monthly core inflation (6.3% m/m, 292% y/y) was the lowest in 15 months, and is the key variable to monitor to measure the pace of disinflation in a context of correction of tariffs and other regulated prices.
