Publications

As a result of the ongoing tight monetary stance, credit growth trend turned into a deceleration from a moderate path. Higher level of real interest rates result in more restrictive financial conditions. Expected rate cuts in coming months and potential ease in regulatory growth caps might reverse this outlook a little bit.

The tightening steps of the CBRT in the aftermath of the March shock were followed by much tighter financial conditions and additional macro-prudential measures throughout April and early May. Deposit rates rose to their highest level since Dec24. Credit growth maintains its limited growth.

Credit growth accelerated throughout February beyond the growth caps. Therefore, the monthly growth limit has been reduced further for FC lending at the start of March. The CBRT aims not to allow demand conditions to contain the disinflation process, signaling new macro-prudential measures if necessary.

Using a panel data local projections model and controlling for firm characteristics, procurement bid attributes, and macroeconomic conditions, the study estimates the dynamic effects of procurement awards on new lending, a more precise measure than the change in the stock of credit.

Profitability and NIMs of the sector have started to improve in 4Q24, which will continue with the rate-cutting cycle of the CBRT. The monetary stance remains to be supported with the macro-prudential measures. We expect the ROE of deposit banks to barely improve to 30% by end 2025 from 28.4% at the end of 2024.

The weekly growth of FX-adjusted credits decelerated from 1% to 0.2%, mainly due to consumer credits in the sector. 4w trend fell down to 0.6%.

Since Dec 6th was the day for finalizing credit growth monthly caps, the weekly growth of FX-adjusted credits decelerated from 0.9% to 0.3%. The deceleration was due to consumer credits in the sector.

Profitability and NIMs of the banking sector stay under pressure due to high funding and RR costs and regulatory lending caps We expect the easing cycle of the CBRT to be a cautious combination of both rate cuts and easing over deposit and credit rules, helping the sector recover gradually 1Q25 onwards.