Publications

The tightening steps of the CBRT in the aftermath of the March shock were followed by much tighter financial conditions and additional macro-prudential measures throughout April and early May. Deposit rates rose to their highest level since Dec24. Credit growth maintains its limited growth.

On the back of both internal & external shocks, the CBRT hiked the ON lending rate to 46% and squeezed TL liquidity in March. With the tightening steps, credit growth decelerated and the increased funding costs are expected to weigh on the 2025 profitability of the sector.

Using a panel data local projections model and controlling for firm characteristics, procurement bid attributes, and macroeconomic conditions, the study estimates the dynamic effects of procurement awards on new lending, a more precise measure than the change in the stock of credit.

Spanish banks are rapidly translating the reduction in official interest rates to new lending operations' interest rates, which benefits borrowers. In the case of deposits, the transmission is slightly slower than in the hiking cycle, which benefits depositors.

The weekly growth of FX-adjusted credits decelerated from 1% to 0.2%, mainly due to consumer credits in the sector. 4w trend fell down to 0.6%.

The weekly growth of FX-adjusted credits accelerated from 0.3% to 1%. The acceleration was due to both consumer and commercial credits in the sector. Its 4w trend continued to move upwards for the 3rd week in a row and reached almost 0.7% (highest since June’24).

Profitability and NIMs of the banking sector stay under pressure due to high funding and RR costs and regulatory lending caps We expect the easing cycle of the CBRT to be a cautious combination of both rate cuts and easing over deposit and credit rules, helping the sector recover gradually 1Q25 onwards.

On the week of 22nd November, the weekly growth of FX-adjusted credits continued to accelerate due to strong weekly increase in consumer credits in the sector.