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May 15, 2025
The tightening steps of the CBRT in the aftermath of the March shock were followed by much tighter financial conditions and additional macro-prudential measures throughout April and early May. Deposit rates rose to their highest level since Dec24. Credit growth maintains its limited growth.
April 16, 2025
On the back of both internal & external shocks, the CBRT hiked the ON lending rate to 46% and squeezed TL liquidity in March. With the tightening steps, credit growth decelerated and the increased funding costs are expected to weigh on the 2025 profitability of the sector.
March 20, 2025
Credit growth accelerated throughout February beyond the growth caps. Therefore, the monthly growth limit has been reduced further for FC lending at the start of March. The CBRT aims not to allow demand conditions to contain the disinflation process, signaling new macro-prudential measures if necessary.
March 18, 2025
Using a panel data local projections model and controlling for firm characteristics, procurement bid attributes, and macroeconomic conditions, the study estimates the dynamic effects of procurement awards on new lending, a more precise measure than the change in the stock of credit.
February 13, 2025
Spanish banks are rapidly translating the reduction in official interest rates to new lending operations' interest rates, which benefits borrowers. In the case of deposits, the transmission is slightly slower than in the hiking cycle, which benefits depositors.
February 11, 2025
Profitability and NIMs of the sector have started to improve in 4Q24, which will continue with the rate-cutting cycle of the CBRT. The monetary stance remains to be supported with the macro-prudential measures. We expect the ROE of deposit banks to barely improve to 30% by end 2025 from 28.4% at the end of 2024.
December 20, 2024
The weekly growth of FX-adjusted credits accelerated from 0.3% to 1%. The acceleration was due to both consumer and commercial credits in the sector. Its 4w trend continued to move upwards for the 3rd week in a row and reached almost 0.7% (highest since June’24).
December 6, 2024
Profitability and NIMs of the banking sector stay under pressure due to high funding and RR costs and regulatory lending caps We expect the easing cycle of the CBRT to be a cautious combination of both rate cuts and easing over deposit and credit rules, helping the sector recover gradually 1Q25 onwards.
