Make a selection from the total of our publications to find the ones you are most interested in by content language, date, geography and/or topic.
Order our publications chronologically from the most recent to the oldest, regardless of geography and/or topic matter.
Order our publications according to the number of readings by our users, regardless of geography and/or topic matter.
We expect the trade balance to show a lower deficit this year under the expectation of lower GDP growth when compared to 2022. To promote both nearshoring and FDI flows into Mexico, the country will have to invest more in electrical infrastructure and, particularly, in transmission lines.
We expect the trade balance to show lower deficits or even surpluses in some quarters of next year under a scenario of a significant slowdown of global economic growth. Moreover, nearshoring and relocation of global supply chains will continue supporting FDI flows into Mexico in the medium and long run.
Given the anticipated slowdown in external demand growth for the next quarters and its negative impact on Mexican imports associated with global value chains, it is predictable for the trade balance to show lower deficits.
Information corresponding to 1Q22 indicates that the current account registered a deficit of USD 6.5 billion, whose annualized figure is equal to 1.9% of GDP. For 2022 we forecast that the current account will post a deficit of USD 12.0 billion…
Information corresponding to 4Q21 indicates that the current account registered a surplus of USD 3.0 billion, whose annualized figure is equal to 0.9% of GDP. For 2022 we forecast that the current account will post a deficit of USD 12.0 billion…
Information corresponding to 3Q21 indicates that the current account posted a deficit of USD 4.1 billion, whose annualized figure is equal to 1.3% of GDP. For 2021 we forecast that the current account will register a deficit of USD 9.2 billion or 0.7% of GDP.
Information corresponding to 2Q21 indicates that the current account posted a surplus of USD 6.3 billion, whose annualized figure is equal to 1.9% of GDP. For 2021 we forecast that the current account will register a deficit of USD 1.5 billion or 0.1% of GDP.
Even though the economic recovery continued during the first quarter of the year, both the lower current account deficit in 1Q21 vs. 1Q20 and the sizable contraction of Net Foreign Direct Investment still reflect some economic weakness
Recent policy impulses could support the acceleration in the economic activity further. We upgrade our GDP growth to 0.8% and 4% for 2019 & 2020 respectively with a higher support from Domestic Demand.
Recently, the surplus of the current account also narrowed significantly. Looking ahead, a combination of “current account deficit” and “capital account two-way fluctuation” could become a “new normal” for China’s Balance of Payments (BoP).
Robust stance in the economic activity continued in 2Q, according to our nowcast. Inflation will ease further in summer on top of favorable base effects before climbing up again in 3Q. The CBRT strengthened its hawkish stance by keeping its interest rates intact and having the average funding rate hover above 11.9%.
GDP growth continues in moderate pace. Food inflation keeps the headline high but it will ease somehow in summer. CBT continues to fund mostly on LLW, keeping the average funding just below 12%.
