Current account balance

Domestic demand will lead Colombia’s economic recovery, driven by improved financial conditions that will strengthen consumption and investment. This will provide a significant boost to sectors such as manufacturing and retail. In the long run, increasing investment will be essential to raise the country’s growth potential.

There are a wide number of important economic indicators that are not broadly disseminated when we refer to the economic situation and its forecasts. In this opportunity, we will focus on the most relevant macroeconomic balances: external and fiscal.

The trade balance had not posted a surplus since 2Q21. Given the stylized fact that the trade balance shows a countercyclical behavior, the trade surplus in 4Q23 is another indicator that suggests that the growth of the Mexican economy slowed down significantly by the end of last year.

To allow the country to maximize the economic benefits of nearshoring in the medium term, the next federal government could formulate a national infrastructure plan and favor an industrial policy that enhances investment in renewable energy, electric vehicles and information technologies.

We expect the trade balance to show a lower deficit this year under the expectation of lower GDP growth when compared to 2022. To promote both nearshoring and FDI flows into Mexico, the country will have to invest more in electrical infrastructure and, particularly, in transmission lines.

We expect the trade balance to show lower deficits or even surpluses in some quarters of next year under a scenario of a significant slowdown of global economic growth. Moreover, nearshoring and relocation of global supply chains will continue supporting FDI flows into Mexico in the medium and long run.