Publications

Europe has managed to secure its gas supply one winter after another following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the market has taken note. But that doesn’t mean things are back to normal.

The Spanish economy is entering a new phase of expansion in which the drivers of recent growth are running out of steam. Replacing these with new ones will bring a sense of having already crossed this bridge. But neither the Spanish economy nor the bridge are the same as before.

Recent fluctuations in gas prices have had a considerable impact on both activity and inflation. Going forward, we see supply factors that can moderate these tensions.

In 2023, the price of Brent crude averaged USD 82.5, falling from over USD 100 in 2022, driven by the war between Russia and Ukraine, although its trend over the past year has been somewhat erratic and dominated by a wide array of events.

Since 2008, private consumption in real terms has failed to keep up with output. Notably, its share in GDP has fallen from 60.7% in 2008 to 56.5% in 2022.

In this Presentation, we explain how geopolitics is becoming a key economic driver in the change of global value chains and the opportunities this brings to Mexican manufacturing production as well as exploring the regional investment opportunities in the country.

The Spanish economy delivered a strong performance throughout the first half of 2023, on the back of a gradual recovery in industrial activity within certain regions of Spain, coupled with an increase in exports, particularly of services, with tourism also pulling hard though with little room for further growth.