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In 2023, the price of Brent crude averaged USD 82.5, falling from over USD 100 in 2022, driven by the war between Russia and Ukraine, although its trend over the past year has been somewhat erratic and dominated by a wide array of events.
Inflation peaked in 2022 before easing considerably in 2023 in most economies. For instance, the average inflation rate in the United States dropped from 8.0% in 2022 to around 4.1% in 2023, while in the eurozone it fell from 8.4% to nearly 5.6%.
Since 2008, private consumption in real terms has failed to keep up with output. Notably, its share in GDP has fallen from 60.7% in 2008 to 56.5% in 2022.
In this Presentation, we explain how geopolitics is becoming a key economic driver in the change of global value chains and the opportunities this brings to Mexican manufacturing production as well as exploring the regional investment opportuni…
The post-pandemic recovery process has been a mixed bag. On the plus side, both the labor force and employment have grown. However, GDP growth has not been enough to increase per capita income and productivity, and the gap with the EU has widen…
The Spanish economy delivered a strong performance throughout the first half of 2023, on the back of a gradual recovery in industrial activity within certain regions of Spain, coupled with an increase in exports, particularly of services, with tourism also pulling hard though with little room for further growth.
Industrial production (IP) declined by 0.8% m/m in seasonal and calendar adjusted series, while increasing by 3.1% y/y on calendar adjusted terms. We expect GDP to materialize close to 4.5% in 2023, whereas gradual interest rate hikes on top of relatively supportive fiscal policy could lead 3.5% growth in 2024.
According to our analysis, global demographic trends and, more specifically, the ongoing process of population aging are contributing to current inflationary pressures.
Having passed the halfway point of the year, it is important to reflect on the behavior of the oil market, and to take note of the lessons learned for the second half of 2023.
In 1Q23, Spain recovered the GDP level of 4Q19, just before the COVID-19 crisis. The reasons for taking longer to do so than most European Union (EU27) countries are several, but an important one in terms of its implications is the slow recover…
In a context where domestic demand has been weakening due to the effects of inflation and rising interest rates, exports have taken over as the driving force behind economic growth, warranting an upward revision of Spain's GDP growth to 2.4% in 2023.
Inflation was bound to fall. As we look ahead, one of the main risks to economic activity in Spain may be that monetary policy will be too restrictive as inflation relents.
