Publications

Commodity markets, like other financial markets, have been unusually volatile in the last month, largely due to the trade policy announcements by the new United States administration.

Recent fluctuations in gas prices have had a considerable impact on both activity and inflation. Going forward, we see supply factors that can moderate these tensions.

Inflation peaked in 2022 before easing considerably in 2023 in most economies. For instance, the average inflation rate in the United States dropped from 8.0% in 2022 to around 4.1% in 2023, while in the eurozone it fell from 8.4% to nearly 5.6%.

Since 2008, private consumption in real terms has failed to keep up with output. Notably, its share in GDP has fallen from 60.7% in 2008 to 56.5% in 2022.

The post-pandemic recovery process has been a mixed bag. On the plus side, both the labor force and employment have grown. However, GDP growth has not been enough to increase per capita income and productivity, and the gap with the EU has widened somewhat more than in the ten-year period leading up to COVID-19.

The Spanish economy delivered a strong performance throughout the first half of 2023, on the back of a gradual recovery in industrial activity within certain regions of Spain, coupled with an increase in exports, particularly of services, with tourism also pulling hard though with little room for further growth.

According to our analysis, global demographic trends and, more specifically, the ongoing process of population aging are contributing to current inflationary pressures.

Having passed the halfway point of the year, it is important to reflect on the behavior of the oil market, and to take note of the lessons learned for the second half of 2023.