Economic activity latest publications
Industrial Production (IP) in April contracted by 31.4% yoy as the restrictions and the impact of the COVID on the activity intensified during the month. We maintain our GDP growth estimate at 0% for 2020 and wait for June’s indicators to confirm the pace of recovery. Important down side risks remain.
Industrial Production (IP) in January grew by 7.9% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, lower than both the consensus (8.5%). We maintain our GDP forecast at 4%, with obvious risks on the downside depending on both the magnitude and the duration of the Cvirus shock in the economy and particularly in financial markets.
The data observed up to February show that GDP would have grown at a rate close to 0.5% QoQ, consistent with a stabilisation of demand and employment at low levels. However, uncertainty about the magnitude of the negative effects of Covid-19 is increasing, implying a significant downward bias
Next Monday, March 9, a national strike called “A day without us (women)” will take place. The economic impact is estimated to reach 34,571 million pesos: 23,200 million pesos in paid economic activities and 11,371 million pesos for unpaid work in domestic and care activities.
After recovering some traction at the end of 2019, growth could decrease to 0.4% in the first quarter of 2020. Demand composition remains volatile and monthly records continue to show signs of weakness in the labor market
January 31, 2020
Spain | GDP grew 0.5% QoQ in 4Q19, and finished 2019 with an annual increase of 2.0%.
The economy grew 0.5% QoQ (1.8% YoY) in Q4. According to the flash estimate of the INE, the internal demand drained growth (-0.4pp QoQ; 1.2pp YoY), dragged by consumption and investment. On the contrary, the external one added up again (0.9pp QoQ; 0.6pp YoY), thanks to exports. In 2019, GDP grew by 2.0% (2.4% in 2018).
Labor productivity in Spain is counter-cyclical, unlike in the majority of developed economies. This phenomenon is mainly due to the poor functioning of the labor market. There is an urgent need to adopt reforms to boost sustained productivity growth
Industrial Production (IP) increased by 5.1% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, parallel to the market expectation of 5.5% in November. Thus, IP grew by 4.5% yoy in October-November period. We expect GDP growth in 4Q19 at around 5%, implying 0.8% growth in 2019. Our baseline forecast for 2020 GDP growth remains at 4%.