Economic activity

Economic activity latest publications

August 8, 2019

Spain | Downward pressure on growth and job creation at the onset of Q3

After the downward surprise in the second quarter of 2019, the growth of the Spanish economy could be around 0.5% t/t during Q3. The available data reinforces the perception that domestic demand has slowed, while external demand is regaining some traction. Moreover, the slowdown in job creation is confirmed

June 18, 2019

Spain | No signs of slowdown for the moment

GDP growth could be between 0.6% and 0.7% t/t in 2Q19, which, if confirmed, would introduce an upward bias on BBVA Research's growth forecast for 2019 (2.2% a/a). Domestic spending continues to lead economic activity, although exports could have regained some traction

April 16, 2019

Turkey | IP consolidates the "bottoming-out" signals

Industrial Production (IP) contracted by 5.1% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in February (-6.2% Consensus& -6.7% BBVA Research). IP (sca) recovered by 0.7% in the first 2 months of 2019 compared to 4Q18. A prudent economic policy stance is key to maintain the recovery in the coming quarters as the new round of financial vol…

March 11, 2019

Turkey | Sharp adjustment of domestic demand in 2018

Turkish Economy contracted by 3.0% yoy in 4Q18, slightly worse than expectations (-2.5% median vs. -2.2% BBVA Research). The economy technically entered into a recession as the QoQ contraction became deeper with -2.4% after -1.6% in 3Q18. We maintain GDP growth forecast at 1% for 2019 as recent impulses and base effects in …

March 14, 2018

Spain | Upward bias in growth, despite the uncertainty

Despite the uncertainty relating to the political scenario in Catalonia, the Spanish economy continues to advance strongly in 1Q18. Quarterly GDP growth (q.o.q) is estimated to be accelerating by a tenth of a point to 0.8%. This would imply an upward bias over BBVA Research's estimated growth for 2018 (2.5%).

February 21, 2018

Spain | No signs of deceleration in 1Q18, despite the uncertainty

Despite the increase in uncertainty related to the political environment in Catalonia, the Spanish economy is continuing to grow at the beginning of the year. It is estimated that the quarterly advance of GDP (QoQ) could reach 0.8% QoQ in 1Q18. If this estimate should be proved correct, it would represent an upwards bias ov…

December 19, 2017

Spain | The national economy is growing and it is avoiding the effect of uncertainty in Q4

Despite the increase of uncertainty related to the political environment in Catalonia, the economy continues to grow in the fourth quarter of the year. It is estimated that quarterly GDP growth (QoQ) could stand between 0.8% and 0.9%. If this estimate materialises, the year, as a whole, would close with an average annual gr…

November 8, 2017

Turkey: IP Confirms Robust Activity in 3Q

Industrial production growth was up to 10%, from 2Q’s 4.6%. Adding up to the previous year’s contraction our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 7.9% yoy (94% info) growth for 3Q. Our models suggest strong growth pattern in for the beginning of 4Q as well, in line with our 6% 2017 GDP growth forecas…