Economic activity latest publications
The deviations from the targets agreed with the IMF triggered a deterioration of expectations and the economic situation, deepened by political tensions. Economic activity will slow down more than expected in the coming quarters.
Industrial Production (IP) surprised on the upside, increasing 13.3% yoy in calendar adjusted terms (vs our expectation of 10% and consensus of 7.5%). We expect GDP growth to be 2.5% in 2022.
Industrial Production (IP) increased by 11.4% yoy in calendar adj. terms (14.7% yoy in raw series) in November higher than the market expectation of 8%. We expect 2022 GDP growth to be realized as 3.5%.
El pasado jueves 30 de septiembre el presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador envió a la Cámara de Diputados una iniciativa de reforma constitucional en materia eléctrica consistente en fortalecer la participación y atribuciones de la Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE).
In August, the BBVA Consumption Index fell (-)1.9% MaM (sa), which adds to the low growth of July (0.4%), pointing to a slowdown in pent-up demand in 2H21.
Turkish economy grew by 7.0% in yearly terms in 1Q21 and 1.7% in quarterly terms implying no moderation compared to 4Q20. Current strong momentum, ongoing credit growth and positive global outlook put upside risks on our prudent 2021 growth forecast of 5%.
The global economy keeps recovering in spite of the uncertain epidemiological context. World GDP growth should be 5.9% in 2021. The worsening health situation slows down economic activity in Uruguay, which will grow less than expected in 2021.
After falling 9.9% in 2020, the economy is recovering faster than expected. Nevertheless, the rebound is heterogeneous across sectors. The health situation remains challenging, in a 2021 also marked by the mid-term elections in October.