Economic activity latest publications
GDP growth in Q3 could be around 0.5% QoQ, a slightly weaker evolution than that consistent with the BBVA Research outlook for 2019 (2.3% YoY). Partial economic indicators show some signs of weakness on domestic demand and job creation, while external demand could grow again
Turkish Economy contracted by 1.5% in annual terms in 2Q19, better than market expectation but worse than ours (-2% Consensus vs. -1% BBVA Research). In quarterly terms, the economy grew at 1.2%, avoiding the “W” pattern but moderating from 1.6% QoQ in 1Q19. We still maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0.3% for 2019.
After the downward surprise in the second quarter of 2019, the growth of the Spanish economy could be around 0.5% t/t during Q3. The available data reinforces the perception that domestic demand has slowed, while external demand is regaining some traction. Moreover, the slowdown in job creation is confirmed
GDP growth could be between 0.6% and 0.7% t/t in 2Q19, which, if confirmed, would introduce an upward bias on BBVA Research's growth forecast for 2019 (2.2% a/a). Domestic spending continues to lead economic activity, although exports could have regained some traction
Industrial Production (IP) contracted by 5.1% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in February (-6.2% Consensus& -6.7% BBVA Research). IP (sca) recovered by 0.7% in the first 2 months of 2019 compared to 4Q18. A prudent economic policy stance is key to maintain the recovery in the coming quarters as the new round of financial vol…
Turkish Economy contracted by 3.0% yoy in 4Q18, slightly worse than expectations (-2.5% median vs. -2.2% BBVA Research). The economy technically entered into a recession as the QoQ contraction became deeper with -2.4% after -1.6% in 3Q18. We maintain GDP growth forecast at 1% for 2019 as recent impulses and base effects in …
Despite the uncertainty relating to the political scenario in Catalonia, the Spanish economy continues to advance strongly in 1Q18. Quarterly GDP growth (q.o.q) is estimated to be accelerating by a tenth of a point to 0.8%. This would imply an upward bias over BBVA Research's estimated growth for 2018 (2.5%).
Despite the increase in uncertainty related to the political environment in Catalonia, the Spanish economy is continuing to grow at the beginning of the year. It is estimated that the quarterly advance of GDP (QoQ) could reach 0.8% QoQ in 1Q18. If this estimate should be proved correct, it would represent an upwards bias ov…