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We revise our activity impulse report to become a flash release at the start of each month. By the end of January, our GDP nowcast indicators signal a nearly stagnant quarterly GDP growth rate, which corresponds to an annual growth of 3.5%. We keep our 2024 GDP growth forecast at 3.5% after realizing nearly 4.5% in 2023.

The Colombian economy will grow 1.5% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025. Private consumption, in the same two years, will grow at rates of 2.2% and 3.0%, respectively. And fixed investment will move from negative (-2.0% in 2024) to positive figures (6.2% in 2025).

GDP contracted 0.6% YoY in August. By productive sectors, the non-primary component contracted 1.9%, due to the decline in the construction sector and non-primary manufacturing. For its part, the primary component of GDP registered a growth of …

The Colombian economy will grow 1.2% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024. The recovery will start slowly from the first part of 2024, driven by the improved performance of private consumption. Inflation is expected to show a gradual reduction path that wi…

Once again, a critical date in the U.S. fiscal calendar is approaching. If Congress does not approve an increase in the federal government's budget by September 30, the executive branch will be forced to enact a shutdown on October 1.

The BBVA GDP Tracker, which is a real-time estimation tool for economic activity, anticipates the beginning of a slow recovery of GDP from September 2023. However, this upturn will come from low levels of economic growth, which are well below the country's historical average.

In the global scenario, restrictive monetary policy will contribute to the gradual slowdown. The Colombian economy navigates the waters of an orderly deceleration in the coming quarters and with the capacity to continue growing 1.2% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024, decelerating from high levels.

Colombia crecerá 1,2% en 2023 y 1,5% en 2024, apoyada en el crecimiento del sector público, del consumo privado por servicios y de las exportaciones. La inflación continuará ralentizándose y la política monetaria siendo restrictiva por un tiemp…

How is Latin America affected by the recent difficulties facing certain banks in the US and Europe? In all honesty it is too early to tell, but any eventual impact would be indirect and would not happen via the Latin American banking system.

The Colombian economy will moderate its growth, from high levels of activity, mainly due to lower private consumption. GDP will grow 0.7% in 2023 and 1.8% in 2024, after a gradual recovery from the end of this year. Inflation will gradually dec…

We study the transmission of monetary policy shocks using daily consumption, corporate sales and employment series. We find that the economy responds at both short and long lags that are variable in economically significant ways.

On December 16, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador proposed an initiative to reform the Aviation Law that would authorize foreign airlines and parastatals to operate in Mexican territory.