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A model, based on Camacho and Domenech (2012) and Aruoba and Diebold (2010), which are extensions of Stock and Watson (1991), was built to forecast Colombia's GDP in real time. Going forward, BBVA Research will continue to publish updates of the monthly results of this work.

The pandemic has generated challenges and changes to the work of economists. In this process, it has become more necessary than ever to be analytical, to innovate strategies, to go back in time and to look for new scenarios within and outside the discipline in order to provide possible answers to uncertainty.

The Covid-19 shock may cause changes in the economic trends and their impact on the productive sectors. Therefore, the main global trends that will determine growth until 2025 are chosen and scenarios are created for them. Then, using a SUR mod…

Consumer prices increased by 0.86% mom in August, far below the consensus and ours (1.3% Bloomberg vs. 1.4% BBVA Research). Annual inflation decreased from 16.65% in July to 15%, the lowest level in the last 15 months. We maintain our year-end …

Tensions surrounding the North Korean nuclear test program remained in the spotlight becoming one of the main US foreign policy concerns. The US announced its support for the Syrian Kurdish in the fight against ISIS. The campaign to seize Raqqa…

Tensions continued between North Korea and US over the nuclear test programme and the US increased its missile defence system in the area. China will continue to maintain the statuo quo while the tone of the US escalated but softened thereafter. In the Middle East, the advances of the coalition forces continue against ISIS.…

After the chemical weapons attack on Syrian civilian population, the US launched its first military strike against the Assad regime sending a clearer message to Syria and North Korea. However, it is still early to know whether this is a tactical message or part of a broader strategy. Europe and Asia kept with low conflict l…

While ISIS lost ground in Syria and Iraq, Al-Qaeda resumed its offensive operations. Meanwhile, tensions between Russia and Ukraine stabilized after last month’s sharp conflict escalation. Geopolitical tensions in China could intensify as unc…

Fighting in Eastern Ukraine erupted again, just a day after that the first phone call between Trump and Putin since the US president's inauguration. It was the worst escalation since early 2015. The new US administration's policy stance towards…

Pro-regime forces took full control of Aleppo, while ISIS retook Palmyra. Russian military operations intensified during the month. Escalation between Russia and Ukraine. Iraqi security forces recaptured eastern Mosul. Escalation between Russia…

Con la economía aragonesa creciendo un 3,4% en 2016, las perspectivas económicas, las matriculaciones y el crecimiento de la afiliación en Huesca tienden a igualarse con las de Aragón. Sin embargo, el sector exportador oscense pierde peso en el regional. Menores vientos de cola y mayores riesgos rebajarán el crecimiento ar…

La economía andaluza creció a un ritmo del 3,2% en 2015. El mayor consumo de las familias y el dinamismo del turismo, tanto nacional como extranjero, fueron los principales soportes.