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June 17, 2021

Colombia | BBVA GDP Tracker: a new model for real time GDP forecast

A model, based on Camacho and Domenech (2012) and Aruoba and Diebold (2010), which are extensions of Stock and Watson (1991), was built to forecast Colombia's GDP in real time. Going forward, BBVA Research will continue to publish updates of the monthly results of this work.

March 23, 2021

Colombia | Lessons from the pandemic to economists

The pandemic has generated challenges and changes to the work of economists. In this process, it has become more necessary than ever to be analytical, to innovate strategies, to go back in time and to look for new scenarios within and outside the discipline in order to provide possible answers to uncertainty.

November 24, 2020

Global | The future of the sectors after COVID-19

The Covid-19 shock may cause changes in the economic trends and their impact on the productive sectors. Therefore, the main global trends that will determine growth until 2025 are chosen and scenarios are created for them. Then, using a SUR model, the sectoral impact is estimated.

September 3, 2019

Turkey | August inflation surprised on the downside

Consumer prices increased by 0.86% mom in August, far below the consensus and ours (1.3% Bloomberg vs. 1.4% BBVA Research). Annual inflation decreased from 16.65% in July to 15%, the lowest level in the last 15 months. We maintain our year-end forecast of 15% with downside risks.

June 1, 2017

Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - May 2017 Update

Tensions surrounding the North Korean nuclear test program remained in the spotlight becoming one of the main US foreign policy concerns. The US announced its support for the Syrian Kurdish in the fight against ISIS. The campaign to seize Raqqa is accelerating. Recent peace talks in Syria as well as the “de-escalation zone”…

May 12, 2017

Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - April 2017 Update

Tensions continued between North Korea and US over the nuclear test programme and the US increased its missile defence system in the area. China will continue to maintain the statuo quo while the tone of the US escalated but softened thereafter. In the Middle East, the advances of the coalition forces continue against ISIS.…

April 11, 2017

Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - March 2017 Update

After the chemical weapons attack on Syrian civilian population, the US launched its first military strike against the Assad regime sending a clearer message to Syria and North Korea. However, it is still early to know whether this is a tactical message or part of a broader strategy. Europe and Asia kept with low conflict l…

March 8, 2017

Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - February 2017 Update

While ISIS lost ground in Syria and Iraq, Al-Qaeda resumed its offensive operations. Meanwhile, tensions between Russia and Ukraine stabilized after last month’s sharp conflict escalation. Geopolitical tensions in China could intensify as uncertainties regarding the US policy stance in the region remained and North Korea re…