Publications

The recent military escalation in the Middle East represents a new energy crisis for the global economy. Although higher resource prices will put upward pressure on inflation, for now, a temporary slowdown rather than a deep global recession is expected.

The strength of the financial markets is surprising. Despite geopolitical, commercial and fiscal risks, global stock markets and credit have reached new highs, generating complacency. What sustains markets in the face of adverse macroeconomic and geopolitical logic?

The sharp inflationary cycle seen in recent years was a global phenomenon. In most countries, inflation peaks of at least two decades or even four were exceeded by a wide margin, as in the case of the United States. In this context, Latam gave us a lesson in responsibility in terms of monetary policy.

The outlook is particularly uncertain, combining slowdown with disinflation, a hangover from two major shocks (COVID-19 and war in Europe) and divergent cyclical trends among the three major global economies.

Today the world is struggling with seemingly contradictory news. On the one hand, high, persistent and generalized inflation, which has led Central Banks to raise interest rates. On the other hand, the global economy is slowing down and there is even mention of the risk of a recession. What is happening in the world?

Como en una prueba de resistencia atlética, la economía debe reducir la velocidad para que el crecimiento económico sea sostenible a largo plazo. Es mejor guardar energías para los siguientes años. La maratón económica no es un objetivo de corto plazo: es una meta que se logra paso a paso.

The global slowdown extends into 4Q19, as some incoming figures continue to be weak despite a better tone on trade negotiations and lower brexit risks. Services and domestic demand continue to sustain growth while manufacturing and trade have stabilized in Q3, but confidence data for Q4 have been mixed so far.