Economic deceleration latest publications
On the opening day of the NPC, after predictably praising accomplishments in 2018 such as achieving the 6.5% growth target, Premier Li Keqiang hinted at concern and caution in the face of the high level of uncertainty.
A few years ago, Reinhart and Rogoff, two renowned academics, wrote about how in every crisis economists, politicians and the rest of the world seek to convince us that this time the imbalances that end up leading to crisis are not really imbalances as such.
Spain’s GDP growth remains strong, although we have seen moderation relative to previous years. While it is always tempting to seek a single culprit, this seems to be rather the combined result of various factors. Some of these are temporary, but others are here to stay.
The slowdown in Latin America that began in 2012 will come to an end this year. After a difficult start of the year, foreign and domestic conditions seem to be improving in most Latin American countries.
The global outlook has improved slightly, especially in emerging Asia. Slowdown of Latam GDP will end in 2016 (-0.9%) in 2016, with a gradual recovery in 2017 (1.8%). Inflation, though still high in South America, continues to abate in most countries. Central banks adopt a more dovish bias, except in Colombia and Mexico.
The Latin American economy contacted 0.4% in 2015 and the region’s GDP will probably fall again this year, compared to average growth of around 4% in previous years.
July 30, 2014
Chile: Activity data by sector disappointed and anticipates an Imacec at around 1.9% YoY f…
Retail sales expanded a poor 2.3% YoY in June, below both our expectations and those of the market (BBVAe: +5.1% YoY, consensus: +4.8% YoY), with positive contributions from clothing, footwear and electronic items and negative ones from car sales. Manufacturing decreased by 0.7% YoY (BBVAe: +0.9% YoY, consensus: +1.0% YoY),…