Economic growth latest publications
We have just done our forecasting exercise for the global economy and the Colombian economy, and we are seeing the glass get a little fuller. We do not see a world with spectacular growth, but we do see a world in which uncertainty is less than it was a few months ago, allowing world growth to stabilize.
Labor productivity in Spain is counter-cyclical, unlike in the majority of developed economies. This phenomenon is mainly due to the poor functioning of the labor market. There is an urgent need to adopt reforms to boost sustained productivity growth
The slowdown of the Spanish economy could end in 2020. GDP growth will slow down to 1.6% in 2020, from 1.9% in 2019, and show a moderate acceleration in 2021 to 1.9% due to the slight improvement expected in the European economy
The global economic outlook deteriorated in 2019, following the downturn already seen in 2018. Between January and October, BBVA Research reduced its global growth forecast for 2019 and 2020 by 0.3 percentage points (pp) to 3.2% and 3.1%, respectively — half a point less than the average from 2011 to 2018.
It is no secret: employment has grown continuously in Spain since 2013. Social Security registrations have increased by 20% since employment began to recover — for every five people registered before, there are now almost six.
The Spanish economy could continue growing at a quarterly rate of 0.4% in 4Q19, the same as the previous two quarters. If this is confirmed, 2019 would close with an average annual increase of 2.0%, 0.4 pp less than in 2018.
The Industrial Production (IP) increased by 3.4% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in September, slightly higher than median market expectation. We maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0.3% for now, but the pace of acceleration puts strong upside risks on our expectation around 1%. Our forecast for 2020 remains neutral at 3%.