Economic growth

Economic growth latest publications

September 13, 2019

Spain | GDP growth stabilizes at around 0.5% QoQ

GDP growth in Q3 could be around 0.5% QoQ, a slightly weaker evolution than that consistent with the BBVA Research outlook for 2019 (2.3% YoY). Partial economic indicators show some signs of weakness on domestic demand and job creation, while external demand could grow again

August 26, 2019

Europe prepares for an uncertain fall

Economic data and news this summer in Europe are disappointing; especially for the signs of vulnerability of the more open economies following the slight fall in production in Germany and the fading expectations that the main risks would diminish in the second half of the year.

August 8, 2019

Spain | Downward pressure on growth and job creation at the onset of Q3

After the downward surprise in the second quarter of 2019, the growth of the Spanish economy could be around 0.5% t/t during Q3. The available data reinforces the perception that domestic demand has slowed, while external demand is regaining some traction. Moreover, the slowdown in job creation is confirmed

July 31, 2019

Spain | Quarterly GDP growth increased by 0.5% in 2Q19, confirming a slowdown

The Spanish economy decelerated by 0.2pp to 0.5% QoQ (2.3% YoY) in Q2. Domestic demand explained the moderation in growth (0.2pp QoQ; 1.6pp YoY) due to the unexpected slowdown in consumption and investment. The contribution of external demand increased (0.3pp QoQ; 0.7pp YoY)

July 26, 2019

Spain Regional Watch. Third quarter 2019

At the start of 2019, growth returns to Madrid and the Mediterranean area, due to the dynamism of private consumption, domestic tourism and, to a lesser extent, exports of goods

July 25, 2019

Turkey | The easing cycle starts with a bold action

The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) reduced the policy rate by 425 bps from 24% to 19.75%. The movement was bolder than expected by market expectation and ours (Consensus 250 bps, BBVA 200 bps). Some risks remains on both economic and geopolitical sides which should be met with a gradual and cautious policy.

July 24, 2019

China Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2019

The better-than-expected economic growth in the first half of 2019 seems transitory. The renewed trade war with the US in Q2 is likely to exert adverse effects on China’s economy over the medium-long term. Moreover, a number of domestic structural factors will continue to weigh on the growth.

July 17, 2019

Spain Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2019

The growth of the Spanish economy is slightly revised upwards to 2.3% in 2019, due to the positive surprises recorded until June, and remains at 1.9% for 2020. The expansion is expected to continue supported by a gradual recovery of the global environment and a more expansionary monetary policy