Economic growth

Economic growth latest publications

September 1, 2020

China | August PMIs continued to expand

The latest August manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came at 51, slightly edging down from 51.1 in July, but remained in the expansionary territory. Caixin China PMI also improved significantly in August, indicating continuing recovery of manufacturing activities.

July 13, 2020

Turkey | Fast recovery in May industrial production

Industrial Production (IP) in May contracted by 20% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, which signals a gradual recovery after the sharp drop of 31% in April. The month-on-month recovery at 17% also proved to be the strongest monthly increase historically. We maintain our GDP growth estimate at 0% for 2020.

July 2, 2020

U.S. Regional Outlook. July 2020

The development of the COVID-19 remains the dominant factor for most regional economies. Many businesses, especially in the services sector, become insolvent due to the loss of income. Social distancing measures suppress people’s mobility.
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  • USA

May 29, 2020

Turkey | 1Q GDP already shows the COVID impact

Turkish Economy grew by 4.5% yoy in 1Q20, lower than expectations (5.5% Our vs. 4.9% Bloomberg). Seasonally and cal. adj. quarterly growth also decelerated to 0.6% from the previous 1.9% in 4Q19. We still maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0% for 2020, assuming a partial gradual recovery pattern in the rest of the year.

May 20, 2020

Uruguay Economic Outlook. First half 2020

Uruguay will be affected by the combination of an intense, but transitory, negative shock of external demand and a brake on domestic activity resulting from voluntary confinement arranged to avoid massive contagion. In this context, activity will contract by 3.1% in 2020.

May 15, 2020

Turkey | A sharp adjustment in March Production

Industrial Production (IP) in March contracted by 2% yoy in cal. adj terms as the restrictions to fight the COVID started to hit the economy. Given the assumption of a partial gradual recovery in the second half of the year, we maintain our 2020 GDP growth forecast at 0%.

April 28, 2020

Colombia Outlook. Second Quarter 2020

Colombian GDP will contract around 3% in 2020, as a result of COVID-19 and oil price reduction. Due to confinement, sectors will reduce output with effects on employment and social indicators. Inflation will moderate driven by a weak demand and despite the exchange rate depreciation. The central bank will reduce rates.

April 21, 2020

Spain Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2020

The Spanish economy has entered into recession as a result of the extraordinary measures put in place to stop the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic. This crisis, however, is expected to be temporary. The activity is expected to grow again from the second half of the year.