Economic growth latest publications
GDP growth in 2022 is revised upwards (4.4%) and the outlook deteriorates in 2023 (1.0%). The economy could remain stagnant in the coming quarters, or register moderate declines, due to heightened uncertainty, higher inflation expectations and interest rates.
Although GDP per capita is not necessarily an indicator of social well-being, it is strongly correlated with improvements in people's quality of life.
Previously, I presented some arguments why it seems to me that tax revenues next year could be lower than estimated, which would present the government with the dilemma of having to cut spending or increase indebtedness.
The recession facing Europe and the United States, if not more countries, over the coming quarters is likely to be a quieter affair than other, deeper recessions seen in recent times. Ultimately, the current distortions within the economy are not as significant as in previous crises.
Last week the Ministry of Finance presented to the Chamber of Deputies the fiscal package for the coming year. The assumptions on which this package was designed appear to be very optimistic, the growth forecast of 3% for 2023 is very high compared to that of private analysts or multilateral organizations.
In my most recent column I explained why I think 2023 will be worse than 2022 in terms of Mexico's economic growth: The slowdown that the US economy will experience, the more restrictive monetary policy and the possible deterioration of real wages due to the high inflation.
After a first half of the year in which the Spanish economy displayed a degree of momentum, the outlook for the second half is rather darker. A few months ago, we were hoping that the north winds would help to clear the skies, but they now appear to be bringing a storm with them.
In the previous installment of this column, I analyzed the dynamics shown by the Mexican economy so far this year, which until now has been characterized by the continuation of a slow and incomplete recovery.