Economic growth latest publications
Members of the Board of Directors of Banco de la República give an idea of what is to come in terms of monetary policy for the remainder of 2021 and 2022. The Central Bank will decide whether to start its upward cycle at the next meeting at the end of September.
September 15, 2021
China | Worse-than-expected growth exposed the vulnerability of anti-virus strategy
The August real economic indicators further confirmed a continuing deceleration growth amid the recent regulation storms as well as the Delta variant virus flare-ups in mainland China as industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment all tumbled.
Looking at what lays ahead for us in the last few months of the year in the global economy, unfortunately the situation has not yet normalized.
In the second quarter, GDP grew by 17.6% year-on-year. The low statistical base boosted the result, while resilience was maintained despite logistical problems stemming from the protests. GDP fell 2.4% quarter-on-quarter, with negative results in April and May and a rebound in June.
July 30, 2021
Spain | GDP returned to growth in the second quarter of the year (2.8% quarter-on-quarter)
As expected, the economy resumed a strong recovery following the easing of the mobility restrictions linked to the state of emergency. Domestic demand added, thanks to consumption, while total investment and external demand subtracted. Hours worked grew more than activity
The Q2 GDP figures together with June real economic indicators confirmed a continuing moderated year on year growth momentum. We anticipate that the growth rate will slowly fall from the previous high level to its long-term potential growth trend in 2H 2021.
Spain’s GDP growth estimate for 2021 is revised upwards up to 6.5%. Moving forward, the stronger progress of global activity, accumulated excess savings, the end of health restrictions and accommodative monetary and fiscal policies will boost GDP up to 7.0% in 2022.
Industrial Production grew by 66% YoY in cal. adj. terms in April, boosted by base effects. Despite the 0.9% MoM contraction, the slow down isn't clear, given strong momentum so far and upward revisions in global growth reinforce upside risks for our prudent 2021 GDP growth forecast of 5%.