Economic growth latest publications
The outbreak of Covid-19 will have a significant negative impact on economies at a global level with generalized shocks on supply and demand, therefore, we revised our GDP growth forecast to -4.5%. Fiscal objectives have to take second place; the most urgent is to underpin health systems and support workers.
Between 2013 and 2018, the disparities in GDP per capita between the Autonomous Communities have barely reduced. This is unusual given that regional convergence in Spain has always appeared to be cyclical in nature.
The data observed up to February show that GDP would have grown at a rate close to 0.5% QoQ, consistent with a stabilisation of demand and employment at low levels. However, uncertainty about the magnitude of the negative effects of Covid-19 is increasing, implying a significant downward bias
Turkish Economy grew by 6% yoy in 4Q19, leading the whole year GDP growth to be realized at 0.9%, beating the consensus but parallel to our initial forecast of 0.8%. We remain prudent and maintain our GDP growth forecast at 4% for 2020.
Regional convergence has been slow during the recovery. Lower income regions are creating employment at high rates but their low productivity growth is a burden. Attracting investment, reducing employment procyclicality and policies aimed at improving demographic dynamics would boost convergence.
Global growth stabilizes in 2020 at low levels. On the local side, the economy will grow 3.2% in 2020 driven by internal demand, particularly from investment. Inflation returns to a decreasing path and interest rates remain stable in this context in 2020.
After recovering some traction at the end of 2019, growth could decrease to 0.4% in the first quarter of 2020. Demand composition remains volatile and monthly records continue to show signs of weakness in the labor market
This study attempts to illustrate the paradigm shift brought about by the digital transformation. It examines factors that could affect the growth of firms in three domains: productivity, employment and geographical dispersion.