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July 2, 2020

U.S. Regional Outlook. July 2020

The development of the COVID-19 remains the dominant factor for most regional economies. Many businesses, especially in the services sector, become insolvent due to the loss of income. Social distancing measures suppress people’s mobility.
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May 29, 2020

Turkey | 1Q GDP already shows the COVID impact

Turkish Economy grew by 4.5% yoy in 1Q20, lower than expectations (5.5% Our vs. 4.9% Bloomberg). Seasonally and cal. adj. quarterly growth also decelerated to 0.6% from the previous 1.9% in 4Q19. We still maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0% for 2020, assuming a partial gradual recovery pattern in the rest of the year.

May 20, 2020

Uruguay Economic Outlook. First half 2020

Uruguay will be affected by the combination of an intense, but transitory, negative shock of external demand and a brake on domestic activity resulting from voluntary confinement arranged to avoid massive contagion. In this context, activity will contract by 3.1% in 2020.

May 15, 2020

Turkey | A sharp adjustment in March Production

Industrial Production (IP) in March contracted by 2% yoy in cal. adj terms as the restrictions to fight the COVID started to hit the economy. Given the assumption of a partial gradual recovery in the second half of the year, we maintain our 2020 GDP growth forecast at 0%.

April 28, 2020

Colombia Outlook. Second Quarter 2020

Colombian GDP will contract around 3% in 2020, as a result of COVID-19 and oil price reduction. Due to confinement, sectors will reduce output with effects on employment and social indicators. Inflation will moderate driven by a weak demand and despite the exchange rate depreciation. The central bank will reduce rates.

April 21, 2020

Spain Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2020

The Spanish economy has entered into recession as a result of the extraordinary measures put in place to stop the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic. This crisis, however, is expected to be temporary. The activity is expected to grow again from the second half of the year.

March 20, 2020

Mexico | GDP contraction is inevitable; the decisions made will determine severity

The outbreak of Covid-19 will have a significant negative impact on economies at a global level with generalized shocks on supply and demand, therefore, we revised our GDP growth forecast to -4.5%. Fiscal objectives have to take second place; the most urgent is to underpin health systems and support workers.

March 18, 2020

Slow Regional Convergence Despite Recovery

Between 2013 and 2018, the disparities in GDP per capita between the Autonomous Communities have barely reduced. This is unusual given that regional convergence in Spain has always appeared to be cyclical in nature.