Economic growth latest publications
It is no secret: employment has grown continuously in Spain since 2013. Social Security registrations have increased by 20% since employment began to recover — for every five people registered before, there are now almost six.
The Spanish economy could continue growing at a quarterly rate of 0.4% in 4Q19, the same as the previous two quarters. If this is confirmed, 2019 would close with an average annual increase of 2.0%, 0.4 pp less than in 2018.
The Industrial Production (IP) increased by 3.4% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in September, slightly higher than median market expectation. We maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0.3% for now, but the pace of acceleration puts strong upside risks on our expectation around 1%. Our forecast for 2020 remains neutral at 3%.
The Spanish economy grew 0.4% QoQ (2.0% YoY) in 3Q. According to the flash estimate, the domestic demand explained the increase (1.1pp QoQ; 1.8pp YoY), thanks to the recovery in consumption and investment. On the contrary, the external demand dragged down growth (-0.7pp QoQ; 0.2pp YoY), due to the strong rebound of imports
Turkey´s economic recovery is gaining momentum and will accelerate in the second half of the year. The “V” shape recovery is in line with our expectations, leading us to maintain our GDP forecast at 0.3% in 2019 with upside risks and 3% in 2020.
The Colombian economy will continue to consolidate its growth at a slow pace, in a context of strong external headwinds. Globally, our growth forecasts have declined for some of our trading partners due to a more negative external environment.
The growth of the Spanish economy is revised downwards to 1.9% in 2019 and 1.6% in 2020, due to the historical revision of the activity data, the negative trend of some demand components and the deterioration of the international context