Economic growth latest publications
GDP growth in Q3 could be around 0.5% QoQ, a slightly weaker evolution than that consistent with the BBVA Research outlook for 2019 (2.3% YoY). Partial economic indicators show some signs of weakness on domestic demand and job creation, while external demand could grow again
Economic data and news this summer in Europe are disappointing; especially for the signs of vulnerability of the more open economies following the slight fall in production in Germany and the fading expectations that the main risks would diminish in the second half of the year.
After the downward surprise in the second quarter of 2019, the growth of the Spanish economy could be around 0.5% t/t during Q3. The available data reinforces the perception that domestic demand has slowed, while external demand is regaining some traction. Moreover, the slowdown in job creation is confirmed
The Spanish economy decelerated by 0.2pp to 0.5% QoQ (2.3% YoY) in Q2. Domestic demand explained the moderation in growth (0.2pp QoQ; 1.6pp YoY) due to the unexpected slowdown in consumption and investment. The contribution of external demand increased (0.3pp QoQ; 0.7pp YoY)
At the start of 2019, growth returns to Madrid and the Mediterranean area, due to the dynamism of private consumption, domestic tourism and, to a lesser extent, exports of goods
The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) reduced the policy rate by 425 bps from 24% to 19.75%. The movement was bolder than expected by market expectation and ours (Consensus 250 bps, BBVA 200 bps). Some risks remains on both economic and geopolitical sides which should be met with a gradual and cautious policy.
The better-than-expected economic growth in the first half of 2019 seems transitory. The renewed trade war with the US in Q2 is likely to exert adverse effects on China’s economy over the medium-long term. Moreover, a number of domestic structural factors will continue to weigh on the growth.
The growth of the Spanish economy is slightly revised upwards to 2.3% in 2019, due to the positive surprises recorded until June, and remains at 1.9% for 2020. The expansion is expected to continue supported by a gradual recovery of the global environment and a more expansionary monetary policy