Publications

As the trade war shock has faded, the recent data surprised the market to the downside as domestic risks take the place of external shock to become the main drag on growth in China.

We raise the China GDP forecast based on the recent China-US Geneva Agreement and the 3nd round stimulus. We also analyze the recent economic development and the policy outlook.

In March 2025 Colombia's total inflation decreased to an annual rate of 5.1% breaking a four-month period of stability or slight increase. This moderation was primarily driven by a decline in non-food inflation, particularly due to the regulated basket. March monthly inflation was 0.52% falling below analysts' expectations.

Amid the China-US trade war, we still raised our China 2025 and 2026 GDP forecast due to the jumbo size stimulus package, the new growth engine high-end manufacturing to support growth and lower-than-expected tariff imposed.

Chinese authorities have promulgated a large size stimulus package to support domestic growth, amid Trump's win in the US presidential election.

The Chinese economy is experiencing structural rebalancing amid deep real estate adjustment. Due to the large-scale stimulus package, we believe the economy will bottom out in the near future.

June inflation was 0.12% MoM. The result for the month is explained by the increase in the prices of foods such as fish and potatoes, moderated by the decrease in the prices of chicken, some fruits, and fuel. The year-on-year rate was 2.3% (2.0% in May) within the Central Bank's target range.

There are a wide number of important economic indicators that are not broadly disseminated when we refer to the economic situation and its forecasts. In this opportunity, we will focus on the most relevant macroeconomic balances: external and fiscal.