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The economy seems to gradually recover in May as the lockdown measures in Shanghai came to an end and the authorities have pressed ahead with monetary and fiscal stimulus measures.
Chinese authorities face the “Impossible Trinity” of policy setting in 2022 among “zero tolerance” COVID policy, synchronized monetary policy and 5.5% growth target.
China’s domestic uncertainties particularly the Covid-19 situation dominate external uncertainties as the main risks for growth. Two Sessions sets growth target at 5.5% and promulgated the stimulus package for 2022 to support growth which is unsynchronized with main central banks’ tightening measures.
The Colombian economy grew by 10.6% annually, driven mainly by consumption. By 2022, robust growth is expected in the global economy. For Colombia, a more moderate recovery is expected to continue with high inflation and a contractionary interest rate.
Consumer spending remained strong at the beginning of the year, although there are already signs of a deceleration, especially in the goods group. Department stores and drugstores were the items that declined the most. On the other hand, services recovered dynamism.
Consumption has grown 35.6% so far this month compared to pre-pandemic levels (vs. the same period in 2019) and 40.4% in annual terms (vs. the same period in 2021), higher than in December when consumption grew 20.0% vs. 2019.
Growth has continued its downward trend in Q4 2021. China’s unsynchronized business cycle and inflation cycle call for an unsynchronized policy cycle.
Consumption in December grew 20.0%, closing the year with a similar dynamic to that recorded in November but lower than in October (24.8%). In the first part of January, goods have shown good dynamics while services fell compared to the peak recorded in December 21.