December 2, 2020
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Consumption in November grows 13.6% y/y thanks to the impulse of the day without VAT, services continue to recover but remain in negative territory.On the other hand, investment continues to show marginal improvements associated with a lagging construction component but greater dynamic in machinery and equipment.
The third and last day without VAT of the year had a very positive balance for the sectors that benefited from this exemption. Consumption during this day was 50% higher than that registered for the two previous days. The clothing and household appliance sectors were some of the big winners.
Due to calendar effects, the consumption slows down in the last days. However, the current month is at similar levels to what was registered a year ago, the good recovery of services is maintained. At the regional level, consumption is slowing down in areas with high Covid affectations.
Third quarter GDP fell 9.0% YoY, although it showed a significant rebound from its second quarter level, increasing 8.7% QoQ. The impetus for the recovery came from domestic demand, while exports remain very depressed. For the whole of 2020, a drop in GDP of 7.5% is expected.
In the first days of November, consumption maintains an upward trend driven by the consumption of basic goods, mainly health and food. The behavior among cities is again mixed as a result of differentiated measures adopted based on the increase of new cases in some regions.
November 5, 2020
Colombia | Weekly update BBVA Tracker: Consumption and Investment. 5 November, 2020.
Given the good dynamics of consumption in the last week of October, the whole month had a positive year-on-year growth of 2.7% after seven consecutive months of negative growth. For its part, we see that in October investment moderates the pace of recovery that brought between July and August.
The recovery in consumption slowed down in the third week of October, due to a slowdown in the consumption of goods, but recovered 1.5 pp with respect to the September record. At a regional level, Barranquilla's recovery stands out, after being for several months the city that lagged the most.
After the boost in consumption in September due to the end of confinement, the recovery in consumption moderates in October. The clothing and restaurant sectors, among those most affected by the closure measures, continue their recovery and are approaching positive territory.