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September 16, 2019

China | Growth slowdown confirmed in August

A batch of August indicators announced today pointed to a significant slowdown in economic activities this summer. Together with the previously released trade and credit data, it suggests that the escalating uncertainties from the US-China trade war dampened people’s confidence and hamper economic expansion.

September 3, 2019

Peru | Output growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 have been revised downwards

Over the last few weeks, one of the risk factors on our output growth forecasts from mid-July, namely the higher political noise, has materialised. In this context, those output growth forecasts have been revised downwards.
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August 14, 2019

China | Growth dipped in July

A batch of July economic indicators are announced today, together with the previously released trade and credit data, suggesting that the growth further decelerated amid the escalation of US-China trade war and the domestic structural obstacles such as debt overhang and financial risks.

July 24, 2019

China Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2019

The better-than-expected economic growth in the first half of 2019 seems transitory. The renewed trade war with the US in Q2 is likely to exert adverse effects on China’s economy over the medium-long term. Moreover, a number of domestic structural factors will continue to weigh on the growth.

July 18, 2019

Colombia Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2019

Economic growth will continue to be led by investment in view of the expected stabilisation in consumption spending. We estimate GDP growth in 2019 and 2020 will be at 3.0% each year and inflation at 3.3% and 3.2%, respectively. The Central Bank will keep its interest rates stable for a long time.

July 15, 2019

China | Growth deceleration appears manageable

The Q2 GDP growth came at 6.2% y/y (versus 6.4% y/y in Q1), in line with market consensus. Growth slowdown in Q2 is widely expected amid the unsettled trade war with the US and the domestic structural obstacles such as debt overhang and financial risks.

July 4, 2019

China | When its current account turns deficit…

Recently, the surplus of the current account also narrowed significantly. Looking ahead, a combination of “current account deficit” and “capital account two-way fluctuation” could become a “new normal” for China’s Balance of Payments (BoP).

May 15, 2019

China | Growth dip came at an inconvenient time

A batch of April economic indicators are announced today, together with previously released trade and credit data, suggesting that the risk of growth deceleration looms large even before the escalation of US-China trade war in early May.