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    March 18, 2020

    China | Forecasting modeling for China's inflation

    We are trying to assess a large group of forecasting models’ performance in predicting China’s inflation. Both linear and structural forecasting models are discussed, estimated and evaluated based on some typical criteria such as RMSE, MAE and Theil-U.

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    January 23, 2020

    China Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2020

    Chinese economic growth has slightly recovered in the last quarter of 2019, although it continued its medium-to-long-term slowdown trend amid unsettled trade war and domestic structural obstacles. The 2019 whole year GDP growth reached 6.1%, the lowest growth rate for the past three decades.

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    January 21, 2020

    Updated Global Outlook | Towards the stabilization of global growth, though risks persist

    Recent data have been relatively positive and signal to some stabilization. Lower trade tensions, less uncertainty of a hard Brexit in the short-term, a lax monetary policy and somewhat expansionary fiscal policy should support a slightly higher growth. Global GDP will grow steadily at 3.2% in 2020 and 3.3% in 2021.

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    December 2, 2019

    Turkey | First Positive Growth since 3Q2018

    Turkish Economy grew by 0.9% yoy in 3Q19 (Consensus; 1%), the first positive YoY growth since 3Q18. The GDP grew by 0.4% in quarterly terms, signaling some momentum loss comparing 1.2% qoq in 2Q19. We maintain a prudent GDP growth forecast of 0.3% for 2019 with some upside risk and a neutral 3% for 2020.

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    September 16, 2019

    China | Growth slowdown confirmed in August

    A batch of August indicators announced today pointed to a significant slowdown in economic activities this summer. Together with the previously released trade and credit data, it suggests that the escalating uncertainties from the US-China trade war dampened people’s confidence and hamper economic expansion.

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    September 3, 2019

    Peru | Output growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 have been revised downwards

    Over the last few weeks, one of the risk factors on our output growth forecasts from mid-July, namely the higher political noise, has materialised. In this context, those output growth forecasts have been revised downwards.
    • Geography Tags
    • Peru

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    August 14, 2019

    China | Growth dipped in July

    A batch of July economic indicators are announced today, together with the previously released trade and credit data, suggesting that the growth further decelerated amid the escalation of US-China trade war and the domestic structural obstacles such as debt overhang and financial risks.

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    July 24, 2019

    China Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2019

    The better-than-expected economic growth in the first half of 2019 seems transitory. The renewed trade war with the US in Q2 is likely to exert adverse effects on China’s economy over the medium-long term. Moreover, a number of domestic structural factors will continue to weigh on the growth.

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