The Chinese economy has experienced a bumpy recovery amid a disordered relaxation of "zero Covid" policy and a housing market adjustment. We maintain our 2022 growth projection at 3.6% while lowering 2023 GDP growth to 5.0% from 5.2%.
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Economic growth in 2023 will be modest and driven by services. A drop in the secondary sector (mainly via Manufacturing) is anticipated due to the general slowdown of the economy. Industrial and tourist entities recover first.
The Consumer Price Index for the city of Lima increased 0.52% MoM in November. This is mainly a result of the increase in food prices (fish and chicken), restaurant menus and an adjustment in electricity rates.
Amid economic slowdown, recently, the authorities promulgated policy stimulus on the housing market and at the same time loosened “zero-Covid” policy restrictions to tackle these two main risks of the economy.
Media is a relevant source of information for households to form their inflation expectations. We identified salient products from CPI basket and built a high frequency news based indicator (GDELT) to monitor the volume of news about “salient…
The Chinese economy has experienced a bumpy V-shape recovery after the Shanghai lockdown was lifted, with Q3 GDP higher than expected.
Chinese economy has experienced a bumpy recovery after the Shanghai lockdown was lifted. We lowered our 2022 prediction from 4.5% to 3.6%.
Chinese economy shows resilience in August after a bumpy recovery path since the Shanghai lockdown lifted amid the easing of fiscal and monetary policy support.
July’s indicators, namely retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment, all fell below their previous readings and significantly missed the market expectations, posing challenges to the whole year growth outlook.
Chinese authorities face "Impossible Trinity" of policy targets in 2022. They reverted to “old" economic growth engine-infrastructure, real estate and exports-to stimulate growth from Shanghai lockdown.
Due to the authorities’ expansionary monetary and fiscal policy this year, the economy started to gradually recover in May and June as the lockdown measures in Shanghai came to an end.
The economy seems to gradually recover in May as the lockdown measures in Shanghai came to an end and the authorities have pressed ahead with monetary and fiscal stimulus measures.