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Economic activity indicators of July including industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales all pointed that growth recovery extended in the second half of the year. However, the demand side still lagged behind the supply side.
During August, consumption falls 24% y/y, a greater drop than that observed in the first days of July. Although the pace of recovery in consumption was slowed by the new regional quarantines, there are already positive signs in some cities with fewer infections that began to open their economies.
The significantly better-than-expected export growth boosted by coronavirus-related product shipments, together with a volume expansion while total value dipping import growth helped to maintain the growth momentum extending in 2H 2020.
At the beginning of August, the card-consumption indicator remains positive, sustained by spending on home goods and services.
Consumption falls 9.4% y/y in July and continues to recover but with moderation due to recent mobility restrictions adopted in some cities. With the relaxation of these restrictions, a partial recovery in consumption is evident in Bogotá and Medellín.
Consumption in July continues to recover but with differences between regions due to mobility restrictions that have been advanced in some cities. We analyze the impact that these new quarantines have had on consumption in Bogotá and Medellín where the greatest impacts have been seen.
Consumption continues its recovery driven by increased consumption of goods. However, the negative effects on consumption of the new quarantines adopted in some cities such as Bogotá and Medellín due to the increase in new infections of Covid-19 are now becoming evident.
The greater impact of restrictions on domestic demand, the reduction of consumption on domestically produced goods and services (in particular, social consumption) and the deployment of the tourism sector introduce a downward revision of growth in all the Autonomous Communities and especially on the Mediterranean coast.