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The European Union has reached a deal on its recovery fund, Next Generation (NGEU), that will play a significant role in the future of European economies. Difficult negotiations have shown that divisions remain but the outcome has been very positive.
China's GDP growth dipped to historical low in Q1 amid COVID-19. The sliding growth calls for more policy stimulus. We believe pro-growth measures will help put China’s growth engine back to the right track. The GDP growth rate will steadily climb up to 7% y/y in Q4, concluding 2020 with a full-year growth outturn of 2.2%.
In this Economic Watch we present different growth scenarios for the Spanish economy in 2020 under diverse assumptions and hypotheses, and evaluate the potential effects of the economic policy measures recently adopted by the Spanish government to mitigate the economic consequences of COVID-19.
In July 2019, the US officially achieved the largest economic expansion since records began. This growth continued in spite of the obstacles encountered as a result of the trade war with China and the global industrial recession.
The eurozone slowed somewhat more than expected in Q4 of last year, with growth shrinking to 0.1% in the quarter. Looking at individual countries, the biggest surprises were the contraction in activity in Italy (-0.3% QoQ) and France (-0.1% QoQ) and the stagnation of the German economy.
In a recent BBVA Research publication, we presented an economic policy uncertainty index based on the content published in the main national newspapers. What lessons about the current economic situation does the index, which is broken down by subject, offer?
In the past week, the International Monetary Fund's autumn economic forecast has been published with a downward revision of growth on a global level.
Spain is heading for its fourth general election in four years. The Spanish economy has slowed during this period, with GDP growth falling from 4% at the end of 2015 to 2.1% in the second quarter of 2019.