economic policy latest publications
Chinese authorities face "Impossible Trinity" of policy targets in 2022. They reverted to “old" economic growth engine-infrastructure, real estate and exports-to stimulate growth from Shanghai lockdown.
April 27, 2022
Spain | Exposure of the Spanish economy to the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the associated severe sanctions represent a significant supply shock, with negative effects on both growth and inflation, through the commodity, financial volatility, confidence and supply chain channels. In the current context, uncertainty is exceptionally high.
We have become used over the last decade to major shocks to the economy coming from factors which are not strictly economic in nature; whether they are protectionist policies, COVID-19 or, now, the war between Russia and Ukraine, which has worsened the global outlook and increased uncertainty.
Bearing in mind the enormous uncertainties that exist, rather than give forecasts, it makes more sense to simulate the impacts of various possible scenarios in relation to energy and other commodity prices, and of pressures on financial markets, and to assess the sensitivity of GDP growth and inflation through them.
Green inflation is the acceleration of consumer prices triggered by the increase in the price of products linked to the transition to a carbon-free economy, both those to be discontinued and those to be enhanced.
The rise in infections over the past month and increased costs throughout most of the past year herald a weakening of the recovery in Spain at the beginning of 2022.
The election results show a very open electoral landscape—with a narrow victory by the SPD. These elections are important because they signal the start of an electoral cycle in the major European countries, within a context plagued with problems needing to be resolved.
The coronavirus has ravaged both developed and emerging countries, with scant respect for borders. Its impact, however, has been and will continue to be geographically unequal, reflecting the different health and economic measures adopted by various countries.