Elections latest publications
The Brazilian economy will continue to recover slowly in the coming years. The gradual strengthening of domestic demand and the normalization of food prices will help to drive both inflation and interest rates upwards. The next government will likely take measures to reduce fiscal vulnerability, although it will hardly mana…
We already knew that the Italian elections would prolong the difficult 2017 European electoral cycle well into 2018. Last year’s results, for better or worse, meant a certain return to the political centre ground for all the countries involved, despite the fact that the most extreme political options have gained force.
Clinton increases lead in post-debate polls, including key swing states such as Florida, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Low number of undecided voters and disparate views on the candidates underlie growing polarization. Our state-level vote-share model still projects a Democrat victory in Electoral College despite nationa…
Despite early success, Trump needs to sustain momentum in order to avoid a brokered convention. Rubio or Cruz present best chance for a Republican victory against Clinton. Current economic and market-based indicators suggest Democratic win in national election.
The General Elections have put Spain's economic woes in general, and employment in particular, at the centre of the political debate. The next administration will have to tackle the challenge of job-creation with policies that are consistent over different time horizons.
Polls show Clinton as the clear frontrunner among the Democrats, while the Republican nominee is unclear. Averaging the GOP candidates’ standings in each predictor, Rubio currently has a slight lead followed by Cruz and Bush. Economic-based models and market-based predictors are projecting a victory for the Democrats.
The general election, held in Portugal next Sunday, pose another electoral test for European exit strategy from the crisis of recent years, after the examination (more agitated) involving the Greek elections.