Remittances add up to a streak of 29 consecutive months of growth, which began in May 2020. Latinos constitute up to 34.3 million voters in the US, 14.0% of the voter registry in the elections on November 8, surpassing the self-identified population as only African American, Asian, and Native American.
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As we predicted, Biden won the 2020 presidential election. Gains among non-college educated white men edged Biden to victory in swing states despite a lower margin of victory among non-whites.
Preliminary results from the 2020 general election map a trajectory in which Democrats have narrowly flipped the “blue wall” states which went to Trump in 2016 and created a buffer by winning Nevada, Arizona and Georgia.
1) the expansion of the border wall, 2) the possible tax on remittances, 3) the policy of apprehensions and the migration discourse, 4) the future of the Dreamers, and 5) the policy for asylum seekers, mainly Central Americans, and the program …
Motivating disaffected voters in key swing states could determine the election. Preliminary data suggests Democrats have commanding lead in early mail-in voting. Available early in-person voting shows Republicans have an edge.
Pandemic and election could add noise to short-term outlook, but medium-term prospects improving. Baseline assumes GDP growth of -4.6% in 2020 and 3.8% in 2021. Pace of decline in unemployment to slow as persistent headwinds increase.
President’s approval ratings continue recovering, but remain below pre-Covid levels. With most states taking steps to accommodate the Covid-19 crisis, 78% of voters will have the option to cast an absentee ballot without any limitation.
The 2020 presidential election will be highly influenced by the health crisis, the economic recession, polarization and microtargeting. Based on polling data and in-house models, the Democrats are the odds-on-favorite to win the Presidency and …
Political chartbook covering Democratic primaries, opinion polls, Democratic and Republican Conventions and U.S. 2020 presidential elections.
Seven candidates qualified for the Democratic debate on 12/19. Party nomination starts with Iowa Caucus on February 3, 2020. Super Tuesday on March 3; over 50% of delegates by end of March.
The Brazilian economy will continue to recover slowly in the coming years. The gradual strengthening of domestic demand and the normalization of food prices will help to drive both inflation and interest rates upwards. The next government will likely take measures to reduce fiscal vulnerability, although it will hardly mana…
We already knew that the Italian elections would prolong the difficult 2017 European electoral cycle well into 2018. Last year’s results, for better or worse, meant a certain return to the political centre ground for all the countries involved, despite the fact that the most extreme political options have gained force.