Elections latest publications
The 2020 presidential election will be highly influenced by the health crisis, the economic recession, polarization and microtargeting. Based on polling data and in-house models, the Democrats are the odds-on-favorite to win the Presidency and the House, and could possibly flip the Senate.
Political chartbook covering Democratic primaries, opinion polls, Democratic and Republican Conventions and U.S. 2020 presidential elections.
Seven candidates qualified for the Democratic debate on 12/19. Party nomination starts with Iowa Caucus on February 3, 2020. Super Tuesday on March 3; over 50% of delegates by end of March.
The Brazilian economy will continue to recover slowly in the coming years. The gradual strengthening of domestic demand and the normalization of food prices will help to drive both inflation and interest rates upwards. The next government will likely take measures to reduce fiscal vulnerability, although it will hardly mana…
We already knew that the Italian elections would prolong the difficult 2017 European electoral cycle well into 2018. Last year’s results, for better or worse, meant a certain return to the political centre ground for all the countries involved, despite the fact that the most extreme political options have gained force.
Clinton increases lead in post-debate polls, including key swing states such as Florida, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Low number of undecided voters and disparate views on the candidates underlie growing polarization. Our state-level vote-share model still projects a Democrat victory in Electoral College despite nationa…
Despite early success, Trump needs to sustain momentum in order to avoid a brokered convention. Rubio or Cruz present best chance for a Republican victory against Clinton. Current economic and market-based indicators suggest Democratic win in national election.