Published on Friday, October 23, 2020 | Updated on Wednesday, November 4, 2020

U.S. Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2020

Pandemic and election could add noise to short-term outlook, but medium-term prospects improving. Baseline assumes GDP growth of -4.6% in 2020 and 3.8% in 2021. Pace of decline in unemployment to slow as persistent headwinds increase.

Key points

  • Key points:
  • Deflation risks giving way to potential for upside in the medium-term.
  • Fed to keep rates at ELB through 2024 and prepare to fine-tune balance sheet strategy.
  • Long-term yields lower for longer to prevail.
  • Residential real estate supported by tight market conditions.
  • Structural and post-pandemic trends underpin commercial real estate fundamentals.

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