Publications

The coronavirus has ravaged both developed and emerging countries, with scant respect for borders. Its impact, however, has been and will continue to be geographically unequal, reflecting the different health and economic measures adopted by various countries.

In the past few weeks Turkey has been through bouts of significant financial turbulence. The Turkish lira has depreciated by 22% in August and by about 60% so far this year. An event of this nature in an emerging economy usually has effects on other emerging economies.

IP grew by 5.6% (WDA YoY) in May, beating the consensus estimate (4.1%). April-May production and demand side data pointed at a modest slowdown economic activity in 2Q16 especially in ex-auto items, partly confirming the earlier easing signals from the confidence indicators. We expect some moderation ahead but we maintain our 3.9% 2016 annual GDP growth forecast.

Consumer prices rose by 0.5% In June on monthly basis, leading annual inflation to climb to 7.64% from 6.58%. Although the food inflation resulted in a correction as we had already expected, the worrying outlook in the core prices drew a more negative picture. Annual food inflation accelerated to 6.3% from 1.8%, while core inflation fell only to 8.7% in June from 8.8%.

The world is distancing itself from the recession of 2009 at a slower pace than before the financial crisis of nearly a decade ago.

Durante la próxima década los países emergentes líderes en el crecimiento (los que denominamos EAGLEs) crecerán un 5% frente al 1.5% de los países desarrollados. ¿Cuáles son los retos que deberán afrontar? ¿Qué papel jugarán las clases medias en todo ello?