Publications

The ECB has been holding its key policy interest rate at 2% for several months, with medium-term inflation forecasts close to its target and a relatively positive assessment of the European economy, which is growing near its potential rate.

The ECB kept rates unchanged and appeared comfortable with the current level. Lagarde noted that the euro’s appreciation and the recent dip in inflation were no surprise, shifting the focus toward economic resilience and longer-term issues.

Donald Trump claims to want a "competitive" dollar (i.e., weaker), while insisting on preserving its strength and international hegemony. Added to this is his disregard for monetary independence, which causes mistrust, plus his embrace of stablecoins, which compete with the eurodollar market.

This presentation analyzes recent developments in the global economy, as well as forecasts, with an emphasis on both the European and Spanish economies.

The recent appreciation of the euro against the dollar—more than 10% since the lows at the beginning of the year—has shifted the price competitiveness of Spanish companies and the purchasing power of households.

The dollar's recent fall has reignited the debate about the possible end of its hegemony in the global financial architecture. A question that has once again fed an old European desire: for the euro to consolidate its position as a reserve currency and safe haven.

The euro/dollar pair has fallen sharply from the highs seen toward the middle of 2024 (1.12) to reach its current level of 1.04, representing a depreciation of 8%.