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The first half of 2024 has been a period of high volatility in the foreign exchange markets, with various changing factors significantly influencing behavior. Ultimately, since the beginning of the year, there have been moderate depreciations in emerging currencies and, to a lesser extent, in the euro against the dollar.
Since mid-July, the euro has depreciated by more than 5% against the dollar, even dropping to USD 1.04 at the beginning of the month. This drop is the result of a combination of circumstances that have had a significant impact on the currency in the second half of 2023 after a solid second quarter.
So far this year, despite the most aggressive interest rate hike cycle in history by the Federal Reserve (Fed), emerging currencies (with some exceptions) and the euro have strengthened significantly.
Over the past six months, the euro has experienced a significant appreciation against the dollar, from lows below parity last fall to levels of around 1.10 in recent weeks. This somewhat expected appreciation has come sooner than anticipated.
So far this year, the euro has depreciated by more than 10% against the dollar, weakening in mid-July to the level of parity between the two currencies for the first time since 2002.
The tables have recently turned for the common European currency as it once again moves toward appreciation. Following the period of weakness it experienced earlier this year, the euro has appreciated by over 3.5% so far this quarter, exceeding 1.22. This appreciation occurred earlier than expected.
Since March there have been large movements in the financial markets, and this is no less the case for the foreign exchange market and, in particular, for the euro. It has appreciated 6% versus the dollar since January, and was up 11% from the lows of March to USD 1.20 at the beginning of September.
At its meeting this week, the ECB decided to hold off until October before making a statement on withdrawing monetary stimuli. With the question of when decided, this now leaves the next unknown to be clarified: the matter of how this will be d…
The European Council today discussed the "Five Presidents Report" on completing Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union. This milestone towards more integrated Eurozone governance builds on the work initiated in 2012 and outlines the roadmap towar…
Hoy, tal vez, sea más probable pensar en un mundo multipolar que en una sustitución de la divisa dominante por otra
La crisis del euro. La expansión monetaria global. Impacto en los países emergentes. Contagio hacia América Latina
