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No major news has come out today as the rate cut was universally expected and the ECB does not want to pre-commit to the path of future cuts. We still expect two further cuts this year, in September and December, if there are no major surprises in the outlook for inflation during the rest of the year.
At today's monetary policy meeting, the ECB maintained rates at 4% for deposit facility and the main refinancing operations rate at 4.5%, aligning with market expectations.
Our forecast still leans towards a further rate hike in September (reaching a terminal rate of 4% for the deposit rate); however, recent data weaknesses and ECB communications before and during the meeting have increased the likelihood of a pot…
The ECB has hiked by 200 bps all its three key interest rates so far in this cycle (including today’s 75bps). Today's largely anticipated rate decision was accompanied by other measures to facilitate monetary policy transmission and aid ongoing…
Overall, the relatively modest downward revision in growth projections and the delinking of the tapering from the rate rise scenarios allows the ECB to convey a hawkish message while freeing itself to make the decision on rates more data depend…
The ECB action was broadly in line with what we were expecting (somewhat to the lower bound) announcing a package of further accommodative measures. Moreover, the central bank reaffirmed its readiness to adjust its instruments further if needed (as risks remain tilted to the downside).
Eurozone growth forecasts are revised slightly upwards due to better incoming data, but we continue to expect some slowdown from 1.2% in 2019 to 0.9% in 2020 before recovering gradually to 1.2% in 2021.
Eurozone growth stabilized in 3Q19 thanks to the resilience of domestic demand, while the deterioration of industrial production and exports has halted. Our MICA-BBVA model projects still low growth in 4Q19. Core inflation has stepped in Novemb…
More evident negative effects of worsening global demand and uncertainty on exports and investment explain the downward revision of growth in 2020. Further monetary easing and slightly expansive fiscal policy could help to halt deteriorating co…
Last week the European Commission presented a proposal for developing a new class of low-risk assets denominated in euros. SBBS, or sovereign bond-backed securities, are securitisations backed by a set of sovereign bonds of euro zone countries.…
This paper shows stylized facts, based on aggregate and sector specific data, on the rather large retrenchment of cross-border lending by Euro-area banks into emerging markets.
