Publications

The Peruvian economy will grow 3.1% in 2025, 0.4 percentage points more than forecast in December. This change primarily reflects higher expected growth in the US and China and earlier and increased investment flows into some mining and infrastructure projects. Growth is projected to remain at 2.7% for 2026.

The Peruvian economy will grow 3,1% in 2024, 0,2pp more than expected in October. The revision mainly reflects the third quarter positive surprise. For 2025 we expect a 2,7% expansion, amid a challenging external context, but also when large infrastructure projects will begin construction.

The current account deficit reached USD 2,525 million in the second quarter and represented 3% of GDP, decreasing by 49% with respect to the value recorded in the second quarter of 2022. The deficit reduction was driven by the adjustment in the trade balance.

RMB to USD exchange rate has cumulatively depreciated by 8% in 2023, amid expectation change of the US FED hike path. Look forward, we predict RMB to go back to around 7-7.1 at end-2023 and 6.7 at end-2024.

Current account deficit for 2022 reached $21.446 billion and represented 6.2% of GDP, significantly above historical averages.

The main macroeconomic imbalances, specially the fiscal one, have been curbed in the second half of 2022 after the change of Economy Minister. It will be crucial to maintain this dynamic during the next election year. The current drought entails a severe risk for the agricultural sector and the exports of 2023.

We analyze the underlying macro reasons behind the recent RMB exchange rate sharp depreciation and explain our forecast of RMB till year end.

Associated with the change in fundamental saving and investment variables that the Colombian economy has undergone in the recent decade, the structural current account and exchange rate are estimated in light of these changes. Likewise, forecasts are made for these variables up to December 2023.