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Current account deficit for 2022 reached $21.446 billion and represented 6.2% of GDP, significantly above historical averages.

The main macroeconomic imbalances, specially the fiscal one, have been curbed in the second half of 2022 after the change of Economy Minister. It will be crucial to maintain this dynamic during the next election year. The current drought entails a severe risk for the agricultural sector and the exports of 2023.

A series of global and domestic macro fundamentals drove recent sharp RMB depreciation. We do not think it will lead to systematic financial instability risk as it is synchronized with depreciation of other currencies amid FED tightening measur…

We analyze the underlying macro reasons behind the recent RMB exchange rate sharp depreciation and explain our forecast of RMB till year end.

Associated with the change in fundamental saving and investment variables that the Colombian economy has undergone in the recent decade, the structural current account and exchange rate are estimated in light of these changes. Likewise, forecas…

This report is trying to answer the three questions: What is the underlying logic of the ongoing RMB appreciation trend? Is the trend sustainable as the global economy normalizes? And where will the RMB exchange rate go at end-2021?

The recent sharp depreciation of the RMB is unlikely to lead to financial turmoil like in 2015: the authorities kept the currency’s pricing mechanism intact and have accumulated valuable experience over the past few years; moreover, the PBoC still maintain a tight grip of the country’s capital account.

Uruguay is focused on elections, with necessary structural reforms taking a back seat.

Global Risk Aversion experienced high volatility during the quarter, which was reflected mainly in equity markets, but not in sovereign CDS or emerging currencies markets. The improvement seen since the beginning of the year was favoured by th…

The bet of financial markets on ratings downgrades remain for countries where agencies have already taken recent actions (Argentina, Italy, Turkey). A bias towards a slower Fed's normalization process is supportive for EM ratings; however, prot…

The increased synchronization and depreciation of Emerging Market's currencies due to both Fed normalization process and, in some cases, idiosyncratic vulnerabilities uprise, have not become a full sell-off across geographies and assets. Beyond markets ups and downs, the resumed leverage trend is a concern for some countrie…

During May we have seen the first overall increase in CDS spreads since Nov-2016. However, the recent turmoil in EMs has merely impacted on Global Risk Aversion (GRA). Our newly developed indicator of EM FX synchronization indicates that the recent depreciation in EM FX rates has had a relatively low level of synchronizatio…