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    August 9, 2019

    China | RMB depreciation: this time is different

    The recent sharp depreciation of the RMB is unlikely to lead to financial turmoil like in 2015: the authorities kept the currency’s pricing mechanism intact and have accumulated valuable experience over the past few years; moreover, the PBoC still maintain a tight grip of the country’s capital account.

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    May 21, 2019

    Uruguay Economic Outlook. First half 2019

    Uruguay is focused on elections, with necessary structural reforms taking a back seat.

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    March 12, 2019

    Country Risk Quarterly Report. First Quarter 2019

    Global Risk Aversion experienced high volatility during the quarter, which was reflected mainly in equity markets, but not in sovereign CDS or emerging currencies markets. The improvement seen since the beginning of the year was favoured by the Fed's announcement of a more patient stance in its interest rate policy.

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    December 10, 2018

    Country Risk Quarterly Report. Fourth Quarter 2018

    The bet of financial markets on ratings downgrades remain for countries where agencies have already taken recent actions (Argentina, Italy, Turkey). A bias towards a slower Fed's normalization process is supportive for EM ratings; however, protectionism (and its impact on China) is the main risk ahead for EM assets

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    September 11, 2018

    Country Risk Quarterly Report. Third Quarter 2018

    The increased synchronization and depreciation of Emerging Market's currencies due to both Fed normalization process and, in some cases, idiosyncratic vulnerabilities uprise, have not become a full sell-off across geographies and assets. Beyond markets ups and downs, the resumed leverage trend is a concern for some countrie…

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    June 7, 2018

    Country Risk Quarterly Report. Second quarter 2018

    During May we have seen the first overall increase in CDS spreads since Nov-2016. However, the recent turmoil in EMs has merely impacted on Global Risk Aversion (GRA). Our newly developed indicator of EM FX synchronization indicates that the recent depreciation in EM FX rates has had a relatively low level of synchronizatio…

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    September 17, 2015

    Brazil | A more negative outlook

    Last week's downgrade to high-yield by S&P was one of the symptoms of the ongoing economic deterioration, which will likely continue ahead. After reviewing our prospects for Brazil, we now expect GDP to drop 2.5% in 2015 and 0.5% in 2016. A weaker exchange rate and a lighter fiscal adjustment should maintain inflation under…

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    November 21, 2014

    Un análisis de los desequilibrios del tipo de cambio real argentino bajo cambios de régimen

    En este trabajo estudiamos para Argentina la presencia de diferentes regímenes en la media y la varianza de los desequilibrios del TCR respecto de su equilibrio, utilizando un modelo de cambios de régimen tipo Markov con probabilidades de transición variables. Nuestras estimaciones reconocen dos estados persistentes en la m…

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