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A series of global and domestic macro fundamentals drove recent sharp RMB depreciation. We do not think it will lead to systematic financial instability risk as it is synchronized with depreciation of other currencies amid FED tightening measures. The PBoC has counter-cyclical tools to maintain the RMB exchange rate stable.
We analyze the underlying macro reasons behind the recent RMB exchange rate sharp depreciation and explain our forecast of RMB till year end.
Associated with the change in fundamental saving and investment variables that the Colombian economy has undergone in the recent decade, the structural current account and exchange rate are estimated in light of these changes. Likewise, forecas…
This report is trying to answer the three questions: What is the underlying logic of the ongoing RMB appreciation trend? Is the trend sustainable as the global economy normalizes? And where will the RMB exchange rate go at end-2021?
The recent sharp depreciation of the RMB is unlikely to lead to financial turmoil like in 2015: the authorities kept the currency’s pricing mechanism intact and have accumulated valuable experience over the past few years; moreover, the PBoC …
Global Risk Aversion experienced high volatility during the quarter, which was reflected mainly in equity markets, but not in sovereign CDS or emerging currencies markets. The improvement seen since the beginning of the year was favoured by the Fed's announcement of a more patient stance in its interest rate policy.
The bet of financial markets on ratings downgrades remain for countries where agencies have already taken recent actions (Argentina, Italy, Turkey). A bias towards a slower Fed's normalization process is supportive for EM ratings; however, prot…
The increased synchronization and depreciation of Emerging Market's currencies due to both Fed normalization process and, in some cases, idiosyncratic vulnerabilities uprise, have not become a full sell-off across geographies and assets. Beyond…
During May we have seen the first overall increase in CDS spreads since Nov-2016. However, the recent turmoil in EMs has merely impacted on Global Risk Aversion (GRA). Our newly developed indicator of EM FX synchronization indicates that the re…
Last week's downgrade to high-yield by S&P was one of the symptoms of the ongoing economic deterioration, which will likely continue ahead. After reviewing our prospects for Brazil, we now expect GDP to drop 2.5% in 2015 and 0.5% in 2016. A weaker exchange rate and a lighter fiscal adjustment should maintain inflation under…
En este trabajo estudiamos para Argentina la presencia de diferentes regímenes en la media y la varianza de los desequilibrios del TCR respecto de su equilibrio, utilizando un modelo de cambios de régimen tipo Markov con probabilidades de transición variables. Nuestras estimaciones reconocen dos estados persistentes en la m…
