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May 17, 2022

China | 2022 RMB outlook: getting worse before it gets better

A series of global and domestic macro fundamentals drove recent sharp RMB depreciation. We do not think it will lead to systematic financial instability risk as it is synchronized with depreciation of other currencies amid FED tightening measures. The PBoC has counter-cyclical tools to maintain the RMB exchange rate stable.

May 3, 2022

China | RMB exchange rate sharp depreciation amid diverging monetary policy

We analyze the underlying macro reasons behind the recent RMB exchange rate sharp depreciation and explain our forecast of RMB till year end.

February 16, 2021

Colombia | Structural current account and equilibrium exchange rate

Associated with the change in fundamental saving and investment variables that the Colombian economy has undergone in the recent decade, the structural current account and exchange rate are estimated in light of these changes. Likewise, forecasts are made for these variables up to December 2023.

February 1, 2021

China | Understanding RMB exchange rate cycle

This report is trying to answer the three questions: What is the underlying logic of the ongoing RMB appreciation trend? Is the trend sustainable as the global economy normalizes? And where will the RMB exchange rate go at end-2021?

August 9, 2019

China | RMB depreciation: this time is different

The recent sharp depreciation of the RMB is unlikely to lead to financial turmoil like in 2015: the authorities kept the currency’s pricing mechanism intact and have accumulated valuable experience over the past few years; moreover, the PBoC still maintain a tight grip of the country’s capital account.

May 21, 2019

Uruguay Economic Outlook. First half 2019

Uruguay is focused on elections, with necessary structural reforms taking a back seat.

March 12, 2019

Country Risk Quarterly Report. First Quarter 2019

Global Risk Aversion experienced high volatility during the quarter, which was reflected mainly in equity markets, but not in sovereign CDS or emerging currencies markets. The improvement seen since the beginning of the year was favoured by the Fed's announcement of a more patient stance in its interest rate policy.

December 10, 2018

Country Risk Quarterly Report. Fourth Quarter 2018

The bet of financial markets on ratings downgrades remain for countries where agencies have already taken recent actions (Argentina, Italy, Turkey). A bias towards a slower Fed's normalization process is supportive for EM ratings; however, protectionism (and its impact on China) is the main risk ahead for EM assets