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Remittances are a hugely important international monetary flow. The World Bank estimates that they will grow by more than 3% in 2024 to reach $887 billion. To put things in perspective, this is more than the annual Gross Domestic Product of countries such as Switzerland, Poland, Argentina, Thailand or Egypt.
The current account deficit reached USD 2,525 million in the second quarter and represented 3% of GDP, decreasing by 49% with respect to the value recorded in the second quarter of 2022. The deficit reduction was driven by the adjustment in the trade balance.
RMB to USD exchange rate has cumulatively depreciated by 8% in 2023, amid expectation change of the US FED hike path. Look forward, we predict RMB to go back to around 7-7.1 at end-2023 and 6.7 at end-2024.
The current account deficit stood at 4.2% of GDP in Q1 2023 (USD 3,421 million), decreasing from 6.2% in Q1 2022 (USD 5,351Million) and down from 6.1% recorded in the previous quarter.
Current account deficit for 2022 reached $21.446 billion and represented 6.2% of GDP, significantly above historical averages.
The main macroeconomic imbalances, specially the fiscal one, have been curbed in the second half of 2022 after the change of Economy Minister. It will be crucial to maintain this dynamic during the next election year. The current drought entails a severe risk for the agricultural sector and the exports of 2023.
A series of global and domestic macro fundamentals drove recent sharp RMB depreciation. We do not think it will lead to systematic financial instability risk as it is synchronized with depreciation of other currencies amid FED tightening measures. The PBoC has counter-cyclical tools to maintain the RMB exchange rate stable.
We analyze the underlying macro reasons behind the recent RMB exchange rate sharp depreciation and explain our forecast of RMB till year end.
Associated with the change in fundamental saving and investment variables that the Colombian economy has undergone in the recent decade, the structural current account and exchange rate are estimated in light of these changes. Likewise, forecas…
This report is trying to answer the three questions: What is the underlying logic of the ongoing RMB appreciation trend? Is the trend sustainable as the global economy normalizes? And where will the RMB exchange rate go at end-2021?
The recent sharp depreciation of the RMB is unlikely to lead to financial turmoil like in 2015: the authorities kept the currency’s pricing mechanism intact and have accumulated valuable experience over the past few years; moreover, the PBoC still maintain a tight grip of the country’s capital account.
