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Portugal | Economic growth moderates in 2S18

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BBVA Research estimates that growth in the Portuguese economy in 4Q18 was around 0.4% QoQ SWDA. Domestic demand will have continued to be the main support of activity, while the external sector’s contribution to growth will have remained negative. This would be consistent with BBVA Research’s forecast for Portugal’s GDP growth in 2018 (2.1% YoY) and 2019 (1.8% YoY).

Geographies:Portugal

Available in Portuguese, Spanish, English

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The Tourism Sector in Colombia

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This observatory is examining the recent evolution of tourism, showing the sector’s importance for the economy and the variables explaining its recent boom. BBVA Research expects that the number of foreign tourists will double in the short term and that the tourism industry will replace coal as the second most important export.

Geographies:Colombia

Available in Spanish

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Madrid Economic Outlook. Second half 2018

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The economy of the Community of Madrid grew 3.4% in 2017 and will moderate its rate of growth up to 3.2% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019. Unemployment will be reduced to 11.4% in 2019, but some risks are more likely now than a few months ago. Once the GDP per capita has returned to its pre-crisis level, the challenge is to reach 2008 level of employment and improve its quality.

Geographies:Spain Madrid

Available in Spanish

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A note of optimism for economic prospects

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Policy recipe offered by Xi at import expo will help to solve trade disputes and rebalance China's economy. The China International Import Expo started in Shanghai on Nov 5, and the inaugural event, announced more than a year ago, stands in stark contrast to the escalated trade tension between China and the United States.

Available in Spanish, English

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Aragon Outlook and Prospects. Fourth quarter 2018

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Aragon could grow by 2.8% in 2018 and 2.7% in 2019 in an export-friendly environment, with investment plans underway and a favourable economic policy. Uncertainty remains at high levels.

Available in Spanish

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

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The extended currency crisis led to a renegotiation of the agreement with the IMF which increased funding for the aid package to Argentina. The new, more restrictive monetary program is expected to decelerate inflation and stabilize financial variables. In this more adverse scenario we estimate GDP will fall by 2.4% in 2018 and 0.3% in 2019.

Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Argentina Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

By , , , , ,

The extended currency crisis led to a renegotiation of the agreement with the IMF which increased funding for the aid package to Argentina. The new, more restrictive monetary program is expected to decelerate inflation and stabilize financial variables. In this more adverse scenario we estimate GDP will fall by 2.4% in 2018 and 0.3% in 2019.

Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | USMCA: uncertainty reduced, but not removed

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We now know the content of the new North American free trade agreement, to be known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA. The three countries’ negotiating teams announced details on Sunday, just minutes before the deadline for the Trump administration to submit it to Congress.

Available in Spanish, English

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Portugal | Growth is upheld, but there are signs of a slowdown

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Portuguese GDP grew 0.6% t/t in 2Q18, mainly due to the increase in gross capital formation and the improvement in the external sector, and despite the low growth of domestic final consumption. Based on the indicators available so far, BBVA Research estimates that growth in 3Q18 will be approximately 0.3% QoQ SWDA.

Geographies:Portugal

Available in Portuguese, Spanish, English

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Mexico | Trade agreement with the United States: investment framework to be maintained

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On 27 August, Mexico and the US announced that they had reached an understanding allowing them to sign a trade agreement to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Although we are still awaiting the final text in order to offer our full assessment, on the basis of the announcement made by the negotiating teams, we can give a preliminary analysis.

Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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New US - Mexico trade agreement significantly reduces uncertainty

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Not a bad deal considering the circumstances. With the information available, we think it is a less favourable agreement than NAFTA itself, but better than the alternative. Mexico will remain competitive in the production and export of vehicles. On the positive side, the energy sector is part of the agreement; this reduces the chances of a rejection of the energy reform.

Geographies:USA Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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US-Mexico trade agreement: the best one that was possible under the current circumstances

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The presidents of Mexico and the US have announced a preliminary bilateral commercial agreement. If congresses in each country approve it, this accord will replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) that has been in place since 1994.

Geographies:USA Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Might Turkey affect Mexico?

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In the past few weeks Turkey has been through bouts of significant financial turbulence. The Turkish lira has depreciated by 22% in August and by about 60% so far this year. An event of this nature in an emerging economy usually has effects on other emerging economies.

Geographies:Mexico Turkey

Available in Spanish, English

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What weapons does China have in the trade war?

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The trade war between China and the USA finally broke out on 6 July, when the US imposed 25% tariffs on US$34 billion worth of imports from China, to which China responded by applying the same tariff to the value of imports from the US.

Geographies:USA China

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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With no access to external financing, extreme FX turbulence led Argentina to seek an agreement with the IMF which stepped up the pace of fiscal consolidation. FX uncertainty, higher inflation and tighter economic policies will take a toll on the economy in 2Q and 3Q but we expect growth to bounce back in 4Q to average 0.5% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019.

Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish, English

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