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What weapons does China have in the trade war?

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The trade war between China and the USA finally broke out on 6 July, when the US imposed 25% tariffs on US$34 billion worth of imports from China, to which China responded by applying the same tariff to the value of imports from the US.

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Geographies:USA China

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

By , , , , ,

With no access to external financing, extreme FX turbulence led Argentina to seek an agreement with the IMF which stepped up the pace of fiscal consolidation. FX uncertainty, higher inflation and tighter economic policies will take a toll on the economy in 2Q and 3Q but we expect growth to bounce back in 4Q to average 0.5% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019.

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Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Argentina Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

By , , , , ,

With no access to external financing, extreme FX turbulence led Argentina to seek an agreement with the IMF which stepped up the pace of fiscal consolidation. FX uncertainty, higher inflation and tighter economic policies will take a toll on the economy in 2Q and 3Q but we expect growth to bounce back in 4Q to average 0.5% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019.

Units:
Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish, English

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La Rioja Economic Outlook 2018

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The economy of La Rioja grew by 1.8% in 2017, and will accelerate to 2.6% in 2018 and 2019. The region will create around 4,500 new jobs by the end of 2019, although the likelihood of some of the risk to this scenario has grown.

Available in Spanish

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Portugal | The slowdown in GDP growth continued in 2Q18

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Portugal’s GDP grew by 0.4% QoQ in 1Q18, 0.3 pp less than the growth seen in the previous quarter and that forecast by BBVA Research. Domestic demand continues to grow strongly, in contrast with the recent weakness seen in exports, which have been affected by the reduced thrust of the euro zone economy. BBVA Research estimates that growth in 2Q18 will be around 0.3% QoQ.

Geographies:Portugal

Available in Portuguese, Spanish, English

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Madrid Economic Outlook. First half 2018

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The economy of Madrid grew by 3.4% in 2017, and will continue growing at the same pace in 2018, and 2.7% in 2019. The region will create around 156,000 new jobs by the end of 2019, despite the weakening of some external factors.

Available in Spanish

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Murcia Economic Outlook 2018

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The economy of the Canary Islands grew by 3.3% in 2017, and will continue growing by a further 3.3% in 2018 and by 2.6% in 2019. The region will create around 30,000 new jobs by the end of 2019, despite the weakening of some external factors.

Available in Spanish

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China | Reignited China-US trade war and its implication on global value chain

By , ,

We attempt to evaluate the impact of the newly announced 25% tariff on Chinese imports of USD 50 billion from the perspective of global value chain. The result shows that the newly proposed punitive measure from the US side can have limited impact on China’s growth and exports, even to a much less extent on other countries on the same global value chain.

Available in English

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The United States and Iran’s oil

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President Trump’s decision to withdraw the U.S. from the nuclear agreement with Iran has generated unease in the markets. The price of Brent crude was close to US$80 per barrel in the days following the announcement, a level not seen in the last four years. The withdrawal from the agreement by the U.S. means the re-establishment of the economic sanctions imposed on Iran

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

By , , , , ,

The economy continues to grow but at a slower pace due to the impact of a severe drought that affects the central agricultural area at the beginning of 2018. Inflation accelerates more than expected in the first four months of the year, but will be reduced in the second half due to: i) exchange stability and ii) wage agreements in line with the 15% target.

Units:
Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish, English

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China Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

By ,

Q1 economic indicators are robust. The outturns of trade, industrial production and investment are better than expected. However, headwinds remain in place, mainly from domestic tightening policy and trade skirmishes with the US, which, in our baseline scenario, is unlikely to evolve into a full-blown trade war. Growth is most likely to moderate through the year.

Available in English

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Portugal | GDP growth will continue to remain sound in 1Q18

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Portugal saw out 2017 with the highest growth in GDP recorded since 2001, 2.7% YoY. The most recent monthly indicators confirm the trends in consumption and investment, signalling that the Portuguese economy will grow by around 0.7% QoQ in 1Q18, making it possible to maintain GDP growth forecasts for the whole of 2018 and 2019 at 2.3% and 1.8% respectively.

Geographies:Portugal

Available in Portuguese, Spanish, English

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Brazil Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

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The economy has recovered faster than expected in 2017. Taking this and the improvements in the global environment into account, we revised our growth forecasts upwards. We expect that, after growing 1.0% in 2017, GDP will grow 2.1% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019. However, the materialization of political and fiscal risks could bring the recovery process to an end.

Available in Spanish, English

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China’s role in Latin America: Participation & Consequences

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This presentation touches various issues: evolution of bilateral trade and investment, LatAm’s export dependency on China, China’s OFDI and financial influence in LatAm and existing critiques on China’s role in LatAms and new opportunities.

Available in English

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Madrid Economic Outlook. Second half 2017

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The economy of Madrid grew by 3.7% in 2016. It will also keep growing by 3.4% in 2017 and by 2.7% in 2018. This will add around 175,000 new jobs in that period and unemployment shall drop to 10.5%. Although GDP and GDP per capita have already recovered pre-crisis levels, creating more and better jobs remain important challenges better jobs remain important challenges.

Available in Spanish

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