Publications

Aragon maintains favorable economic prospects, with growth above 2% over the two-year period, supported by strong employment, private consumption, and the recovery of exports, although shaped by a more uncertain international environment.

Activity grew by 0.6% QoQ in Q1 2026, one-tenth of a percentage point less than forecast, and with a less favorable composition than expected: investment and goods exports surprised on the downside. The advance was driven by hourly productivity, despite the drop in hours worked.

The Spanish economy will maintain growth of above 2% in 2026–2027, supported by consumption, services and construction, although the deterioration in the international environment is widening regional differences.

Despite elevated and potentially rising US tariffs, global trade remains resilient. Supply chains continue to adapt, benefiting economies such as Vietnam, Taiwan and Mexico, while energy reallocation and AI-driven semiconductor demand sustain trade growth despite geopolitical disruptions and protectionist pressures.

The economy of Extremadura maintains solid growth backed by job creation in public services, domestic consumption, and tourist arrivals. The agrifood sector faces challenges due to drops in exports of processed goods, geopolitical pressures, and productivity stagnation.

Global trade remained strong early in the year, supported by the ongoing AI boom, despite tariffs and fading pharma front-loading effects. Middle East tensions pose a new risk to international flows.

This year, the trade agreement between Mexico, the United States, and Canada (USMCA) enters its review process. It is worth recalling that the agreement is in force until 2036, but it includes a review mechanism beginning July 1 that could lead to different scenarios.