Publications

Extremadura is expected to maintain solid growth of close to 2% in 2026-2027, supported by consumption, investment and job creation, with relatively favourable GDP per capita performance. A worsening external backdrop, weak exports and agricultural activity, and structural bottlenecks will weigh on the outlook.

Mexico's current account recorded a surplus of USD 8.9 billion in 2Q26, driven by a record high in the non-oil merchandise balance. In contrast, Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) showed an annual decrease of 11.7% during the first half of 2026.

On July 23, the USTR imposed new Section 301 tariffs on imports from 60 economies. Mexico faces an additional 10% tariff for failing to effectively enforce its ban on goods produced with forced labor, constituting a USMCA violation.

The El Niño phenomenon is not uniform; neither are its economic impacts. It can bring droughts or torrential rains, affecting each country differently. In Argentina it can favor crops, in Colombia it can generate inflationary pressures, and in Peru it can alter marine productivity and exports.

Activity grew by 0.6% QoQ in Q1 2026, one-tenth of a percentage point less than forecast, and with a less favorable composition than expected: investment and goods exports surprised on the downside. The advance was driven by hourly productivity, despite the drop in hours worked.

The economy is showing resilience thanks to expansionary fiscal policy and the mild impact of the Strait of Hormuz crisis. However, the expiration of public aid and European funds, together with higher costs, points to an economic slowdown during the second half of the year.

Despite elevated and potentially rising US tariffs, global trade remains resilient. Supply chains continue to adapt, benefiting economies such as Vietnam, Taiwan and Mexico, while energy reallocation and AI-driven semiconductor demand sustain trade growth despite geopolitical disruptions and protectionist pressures.