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Mexico | USMCA: uncertainty reduced, but not removed

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We now know the content of the new North American free trade agreement, to be known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA. The three countries’ negotiating teams announced details on Sunday, just minutes before the deadline for the Trump administration to submit it to Congress.

Available in Spanish, English

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Portugal | Growth is upheld, but there are signs of a slowdown

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Portuguese GDP grew 0.6% t/t in 2Q18, mainly due to the increase in gross capital formation and the improvement in the external sector, and despite the low growth of domestic final consumption. Based on the indicators available so far, BBVA Research estimates that growth in 3Q18 will be approximately 0.3% QoQ SWDA.

Geographies:Portugal

Available in Portuguese, Spanish, English

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Mexico | Trade agreement with the United States: investment framework to be maintained

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On 27 August, Mexico and the US announced that they had reached an understanding allowing them to sign a trade agreement to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Although we are still awaiting the final text in order to offer our full assessment, on the basis of the announcement made by the negotiating teams, we can give a preliminary analysis.

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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New US - Mexico trade agreement significantly reduces uncertainty

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Not a bad deal considering the circumstances. With the information available, we think it is a less favourable agreement than NAFTA itself, but better than the alternative. Mexico will remain competitive in the production and export of vehicles. On the positive side, the energy sector is part of the agreement; this reduces the chances of a rejection of the energy reform.

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Geographies:USA Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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US-Mexico trade agreement: the best one that was possible under the current circumstances

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The presidents of Mexico and the US have announced a preliminary bilateral commercial agreement. If congresses in each country approve it, this accord will replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) that has been in place since 1994.

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Geographies:USA Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Might Turkey affect Mexico?

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In the past few weeks Turkey has been through bouts of significant financial turbulence. The Turkish lira has depreciated by 22% in August and by about 60% so far this year. An event of this nature in an emerging economy usually has effects on other emerging economies.

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Geographies:Mexico Turkey

Available in Spanish, English

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What weapons does China have in the trade war?

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The trade war between China and the USA finally broke out on 6 July, when the US imposed 25% tariffs on US$34 billion worth of imports from China, to which China responded by applying the same tariff to the value of imports from the US.

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Geographies:USA China

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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With no access to external financing, extreme FX turbulence led Argentina to seek an agreement with the IMF which stepped up the pace of fiscal consolidation. FX uncertainty, higher inflation and tighter economic policies will take a toll on the economy in 2Q and 3Q but we expect growth to bounce back in 4Q to average 0.5% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019.

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Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Argentina Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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With no access to external financing, extreme FX turbulence led Argentina to seek an agreement with the IMF which stepped up the pace of fiscal consolidation. FX uncertainty, higher inflation and tighter economic policies will take a toll on the economy in 2Q and 3Q but we expect growth to bounce back in 4Q to average 0.5% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019.

Units:
Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish, English

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La Rioja Economic Outlook 2018

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The economy of La Rioja grew by 1.8% in 2017, and will accelerate to 2.6% in 2018 and 2019. The region will create around 4,500 new jobs by the end of 2019, although the likelihood of some of the risk to this scenario has grown.

Available in Spanish

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Portugal | The slowdown in GDP growth continued in 2Q18

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Portugal’s GDP grew by 0.4% QoQ in 1Q18, 0.3 pp less than the growth seen in the previous quarter and that forecast by BBVA Research. Domestic demand continues to grow strongly, in contrast with the recent weakness seen in exports, which have been affected by the reduced thrust of the euro zone economy. BBVA Research estimates that growth in 2Q18 will be around 0.3% QoQ.

Geographies:Portugal

Available in Portuguese, Spanish, English

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Madrid Economic Outlook. First half 2018

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The economy of Madrid grew by 3.4% in 2017, and will continue growing at the same pace in 2018, and 2.7% in 2019. The region will create around 156,000 new jobs by the end of 2019, despite the weakening of some external factors.

Available in Spanish

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Murcia Economic Outlook 2018

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The economy of the Canary Islands grew by 3.3% in 2017, and will continue growing by a further 3.3% in 2018 and by 2.6% in 2019. The region will create around 30,000 new jobs by the end of 2019, despite the weakening of some external factors.

Available in Spanish

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China | Reignited China-US trade war and its implication on global value chain

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We attempt to evaluate the impact of the newly announced 25% tariff on Chinese imports of USD 50 billion from the perspective of global value chain. The result shows that the newly proposed punitive measure from the US side can have limited impact on China’s growth and exports, even to a much less extent on other countries on the same global value chain.

Available in English

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The United States and Iran’s oil

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President Trump’s decision to withdraw the U.S. from the nuclear agreement with Iran has generated unease in the markets. The price of Brent crude was close to US$80 per barrel in the days following the announcement, a level not seen in the last four years. The withdrawal from the agreement by the U.S. means the re-establishment of the economic sanctions imposed on Iran

Available in Spanish, English

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