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    June 24, 2022

    Mexico | Will there be a recession in the United States?

    Recessions occur because the Fed's short-term interest rates determine the level of all rates in the economy: the Fed's rate hike implies higher rates for credit to companies, for mortgage loans and for consumer loans, etc.

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    June 21, 2022

    US | Treasury yields likely to increase further

    They will peak once the Fed is done tightening. Slowing demand to bring down inflation without significant pain is “not getting any easier”, but markets (still?) price in a soft landing.

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    June 16, 2022

    US | Fed steps up tightening pace and signals a more aggressive approach

    The main goal is to avoid long-run inflation expectations de-anchoring; rates will be at a “modestly restrictive level” by year-end.

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    June 15, 2022

    US | A larger 75 bps hike is now likely

    We now expect more rate hike front-loading as the FOMC turns more hawkish following persistently high inflation readings from last week.

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    May 16, 2022

    US | Treasury yields and interest rates will likely peak once the Fed is done tightening

    Bringing inflation back down to target will likely cause “some pain”; yet, markets are (still) pricing in a soft landing. With the Fed set to hike rates by 50 bps in June and July, the tightening pace is set to be the fastest since the 1994-1995 hiking cycle.

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    May 13, 2022

    US | The complicated path of the FED

    In the United States, after more than a decade in which inflation was consistently below the Federal Reserve's (FED) target, it has risen to levels not seen in 40 years.

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    May 4, 2022

    US | Fed to start raising rates more aggressively

    We expect the Fed to hike the fed funds rate by 50bps and launch QT amid “much too high” inflation. The aim will be to bring inflation down while achieving a soft-landing of the economy.

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    January 27, 2022

    Mexico | The FED will begin to withdraw monetary stimulus; Mexico in good position

    The COVID pandemic resulted in an unprecedented collapse in both aggregate supply and demand for most of the world's economies.

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