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July’s meeting minutes confirmed a Fed’s dovish shift, with "a vast majority" of FOMC officials observing that "it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting."
The Fed is finally explicitly acknowledging that risks are broadly balanced: it is now “attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate,” rather than “highly attentive to inflation risks.”
Following reassuring inflation data in the inter-meeting period, FOMC members likely regained some confidence in the disinflationary process. FOMC participants might be inclined to suggest a September rate cut, but a strong signal at Jackson Ho…
The futures market is almost fully pricing in that the Fed will cut rates by 50 bps this year (95% implied chances) and continue to anticipate roughly 100 bps worth of rate cuts next year. Markets are certain of a rate cut in September, but are…
In a particularly turbulent environment such as this, it is worth highlighting the calm, rationality, consistency as well as humility with which central banks are implementing their monetary policy.
There is still no clear indication of a severe slowdown in the labor market, though it has weakened more than it initially appears. The slower rate of job creation, coupled with frequent downward adjustments to monthly employment figures, suggests a labor market that remains robust but not excessively tight.
Mid- and long-term Treasury yields eased further from their late-April’s highs on a less hawkish than expected Fed in this month’s meeting, and fresh signs that the inflation jump in 1Q will prove transitory.
With the fed funds rate at its peak, growing chances of disinflation resuming in 2Q24 and more balanced risks, the Fed is likely to remain cautious in determining the timing of a first rate cut.
Intermeeting developments will likely not change the already-conveyed Fed message that more good data is needed to gain enough confidence in progress toward 2% inflation; the debate around the policy stance will continue to focus on for how lon…
In recent weeks, high volatility has been observed in financial variables in the United States and, therefore, in much of the world.
Policy rate expectations and Treasury yields eased from their late-April’s highs on softer employment and inflation data released recently.
In a context of a strong economy and a lack of further progress on inflation in recent months, the Fed unequivocally signaled that it can be patient and will give the restrictive monetary policy stance more time to do its job before deciding to cut rates.
